SPAC: TIFFANY - Post-Tropical

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SPAC: TIFFANY - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Subtrop » Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:23 pm

90P INVEST 220106 0000 11.1S 143.1E SHEM 15 1010
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:58 pm

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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:26 pm

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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:06 pm

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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90P

#5 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:20 am

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Tropical storm of around 45 knots
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Re: Australia: TIFFANY - Tropical Storm

#6 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:17 am

Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7202/ZBC0Er.gif

Tropical storm of around 45 knots


JTWC already has this as a Tropical Cyclone at 50 knots.
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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Storm

#7 Postby aspen » Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:40 am

An eyewall is forming. Looks like this is undergoing RI and might be a Cat 1 by the time it makes landfall.
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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Storm

#8 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:42 pm

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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:43 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9

Issued at 1:38 am EST on Monday 10 January 2022
Headline:
Tropical cyclone Tiffany, category 2, is approaching the coast near Cape Melville. Cyclone warning extends across Cape York Peninsula.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

Cape York Peninsula between Cape Grenville and Cape Tribulation, and Mapoon and Gilbert River Mouth
Watch Zone

None
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany at 1:00 am AEST [12:30 am ACST]:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South 145.4 degrees East, estimated to be 175 kilometres north of Cooktown and 260 kilometres east southeast of Lockhart River.

Movement: west at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Tiffany is a category 2 system approaching the far north Queensland coast. Landfall is expected between Cooktown and Lockhart River today, with the timing dependent on whether Tiffany moves south or north of Cape Melville.

Tiffany will weaken slightly over land but may maintain tropical cyclone strength as it moves westward across the Cape. The system is then expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday and re-intensify quickly as it moves towards the Northern Territory coast. A severe tropical cyclone coastal impact on the Northern Territory coast is possible on Wednesday or Thursday.
Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h will develop between Cape Tribulation and Coen, including Cooktown, this morning as Tiffany approaches the coast. These GALES may extend north to Lockhart River and Cape Grenville if the cyclone takes a more northerly track.

DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 130 km/h are expected later today as the centre of the cyclone makes landfall.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h will extend westward across Cape York Peninsula between Gilbert River Mouth and Mapoon, including Weipa and Pormpuraaw, during today and early Tuesday.

HEAVY RAINFALL is occurring in the warning area and is expected to persist through Monday and into Tuesday as the system moves across Cape York Peninsula. Widespread 24 hour totals of 100 to 150mm are expected, with isolated 24 hour totals of 200 to 250mm possible.

As the system crosses the coast, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected between Cape Tribulation and Lockhart River today, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are also expected on the western Cape York Peninsula during Tuesday and Wednesday.
Recommended Action:

People between Cape Tribulation and Coen, including Cooktown, should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

People between Cape Grenville and Coen, including Lockhart River, and Mapoon to Gilbert River Mouth should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 5am AEST Monday.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- If you choose to take shelter away from your home, stay COVID-19 safe and pack a mask and hand sanitiser (if you have them).

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Monday 10 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:45 pm

Name: Tropical Cyclone Tiffany
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.9S
Longitude: 145.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm (30 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/1800: 14.0S 145.2E: 040 (070): 050 (095): 989
+12: 10/0000: 14.1S 144.8E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 989
+18: 10/0600: 14.2S 144.4E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 989
+24: 10/1200: 14.2S 143.5E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 990
+36: 11/0000: 13.9S 141.6E: 085 (155): 035 (065): 999
+48: 11/1200: 13.9S 139.9E: 100 (180): 040 (075): 996
+60: 12/0000: 13.9S 137.8E: 100 (185): 050 (095): 990
+72: 12/1200: 14.2S 136.0E: 105 (195): 065 (120): 979
+96: 13/1200: 14.9S 133.4E: 135 (250): 035 (065): 998
+120: 14/1200: 15.4S 132.8E: 175 (320): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Tiffany continues to develop and has now reached category 2
intensity.

Position was analysed using animated enhanced infra-red and microwave satellite
imagery. Convection continues to develop and wrap around the centre with very
tight banding. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with 0.8 to
0.85 wrap giving DT 3.5. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is
adjusted up to 3.0. Final T 3.5, and CI is set to 3.5. This is supported by a
recent SMOS satellite pass indicating a small area of 50 knot winds near the
centre of the system. Intensity is set to 50 knots (10 minute mean).

The CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear has decreased slightly to 15 to 20
knots as the upper level ridge is deformed to the north by an upper trough
passing to the south. This same feature has improved upper poleward outflow
from the system. SST is above 29 degrees Celsius. Given the small size of
Tiffany, intensification could continue, however the circulation will start to
feel the effects of the coastline within the next 6 to 12 hours and thus the
current intensity is forecast to persist through to landfall.

Tiffany will continue to be steered westward by a mid-level ridge to the south
for the next several days. Late in the week another upper trough will weaken
the ridge. The system will slow and possibly recurve to the southeast. This is
likely to be after landfall on the Northern Territory coast, however
considerable uncertainty remains with this timing. Otherwise, conditions are
broadly favourable for development as the system tracks across the Gulf of
Carpentaria and the forecast development to a category 3 system in the western
Gulf remains credible.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1930 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:26 pm

Likely approaching hurricane intensity. Will have another chance to deepen over the GOC per ECMWF.
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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jan 09, 2022 6:16 pm

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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 09, 2022 7:02 pm

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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 09, 2022 7:56 pm

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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 09, 2022 8:35 pm

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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jan 09, 2022 8:40 pm

BOM too relying on Dvorak here. This is the sort of system, where an inner core starts to form at T2.0-2.5 range, where Dvorak should not be used as it lags behind here.
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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:17 am

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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:31 pm

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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:56 pm

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Re: SPAC: TIFFANY - Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:09 am

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