EPAC: INVEST 90E

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EPAC: INVEST 90E

#1 Postby Subtrop » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:12 pm

EP, 90, 2022012012, , BEST, 0, 217N, 1353W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 140, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, SPAWNINVEST, ep712022 to ep902022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:22 pm

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
920 AM PST Thu Jan 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of low pressure
located well to the east-northeast of Hawaii.

1. A well-defined area of low pressure producing gale-force winds is
located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Shower
and thunderstorm activity has recently increased in coverage and
organization near the center. While environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for additional development, if this
activity persists, it could result in the formation of a short-lived
subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next day or so. By Friday,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
additional development. For more information on this system,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation change through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 7 PM PST this evening, or earlier if conditions warrant.

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:26 pm

The last time the East/Central Pacific has a storm in January was 2016; this is definitely evidence this year has behaved more like an El Niño than a La Niña.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:28 pm

This is wild! I don't recall seeing this in the EPAC, there was one in the CPAC in 2016, but EPAC? This is something else!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#5 Postby Meow » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:34 pm

The earliest formation of the Northeast Pacific Ocean: One-E in 2020

The earliest named storm of the Northeast Pacific Ocean: Andres in 2021

Let’s see if it will set new records.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:34 pm

Image

Convection waning in coverage a little but struggling to find reasons why I wouldn’t classify this.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#7 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:36 pm

GFS says it's already peaked and will weaken by tomorrow. No big deal. Non-tropical.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#8 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:36 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/933776035756007494/IMG_7933.jpg

Convection waning in coverage a little but struggling to find reasons why I wouldn’t classify this.

It needs to maintain its presentation. I think that’s why it hasn’t been classified. It’s clearly nonfrontal.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:48 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#10 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:02 pm

Now this is interesting an Invest in January? Pali 2016 comes to mind but that was CPAC. This could be in a class of its own if it develops.
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:07 pm

As far as I know, no storm has ever developed in the EPAC in the "deep" off-season. That said, the record is short.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#12 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:24 pm

Image

Looks like it has a healthy low level circulation!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:07 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:16 pm

EP, 90, 2022012018, , BEST, 0, 218N, 1361W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 140, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:23 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:00 pm

Looks like some of the subtropical storms the Atlantics been getting
Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:14 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:53 pm

EP, 90, 2022012100, , BEST, 0, 223N, 1366W, 40, 1006, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:03 pm

Down to 30%.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM PST Thu Jan 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update information on
the area of low pressure located well to the east-northeast of
Hawaii.

A well-defined area of low pressure producing gale-force winds is
located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Shower
and thunderstorm activity has decreased a little during the past
several hours. Environmental conditions appear to be only
marginally favorable for additional development, and they are
expected to become much less favorable on Friday. However, there
is still a chance for a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone
to form during the next day or so as the low moves northwestward
to westward. For more information on this system, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation change through 5 days...low...30 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 7 AM PST this Friday morning, or earlier if conditions
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#20 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jan 20, 2022 11:22 pm

Image

I've never seen the nhc upgrade a subtropical storm in the eastern pacific ocean east of 140w. I can't remember it at the very least.

So it comes as no surprise that the numbers are going down.
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