SIO : BATSIRAI - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#61 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:54 pm

Image

120kts looks solid to me for now. Interesting how the JTWC has it weakening a bit before ramping up again. Maybe ERC potential? Either way, like I've said before, this has potential be a major disaster for Madagascar. Latest forecast has a 125kt monster coming in. I really hope everyone there is taking proper precautions.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:56 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 FEB 2022 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 18:22:12 S Lon : 57:50:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 953mb / 102kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -14.1C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:59 am

Image

OW embedded in W. Probably around 125 knots on the dot, though making a run at Category 5 with a pending ERC.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#64 Postby Hurricane2021 » Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:59 am

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1488798032451837953




To me, this is a Category 5.


As usual to see. MFR and JTWC underestimating TCs in this basin.
Last edited by Hurricane2021 on Sun Mar 06, 2022 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#65 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:08 am

INSAT 3D & INSAT 3R
Image
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#66 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:49 am

Image
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#67 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:08 am

Still cat 4 at 12z.

08S BATSIRAI 220202 1200 18.9S 56.7E SHEM 125 932
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#68 Postby aspen » Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:18 am

cycloneye wrote:Still cat 4 at 12z.

08S BATSIRAI 220202 1200 18.9S 56.7E SHEM 125 932

I don’t know why they’re saying it slightly weakened. It looks to either still be at 130 kt or at 135 kt. Maybe they think the double eyewalls on microwave have caused a bit of weakening, but satellite presentation hasn’t changed much.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#69 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:01 am

meteosat loops
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyc

#70 Postby alan1961 » Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:09 am

[url=https://ibb.co/317ybvM]Image
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#71 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:40 am

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#72 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:45 am



Nearly 1500 mm of rain in 48 hours at the Commerson crater in #LaReunion.
The wind is very violent on the west of the island this evening, up to 202 km/h at Piton Maido and 135 km/h at the Port on the coast.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#73 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:05 pm

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#74 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:47 pm

A drifting buoy (WMO ID: 1401821) between Madagascar and La Reunion recorded a min sea-level pressure of 956.6 mb just outside of Batsirai's eye last night at 14Z.

Image
Image
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Update: I should also add that the buoy recorded the upwelling caused by Batsirai over the past couple of days. Remarkable drop in SSTs from ~28C to ~25C!

Image
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#75 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:22 pm

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#76 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Feb 05, 2022 9:06 am

Sustained wind in Mananjary is already up to 130 kph - pressure is down to 987 hPa
Image
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#77 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:49 am

Mamanjary is now on the left front quadrant eyewall
977 hPa / 167 kph (10 minute sustained) -
Image
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#78 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Feb 05, 2022 6:33 pm

Looks like Mananjary really took a beating. The station there failed to send a report from 18Z onwards.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#79 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:48 pm

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#80 Postby Foxfires » Sun Feb 13, 2022 6:40 am

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