SIO : BATSIRAI - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#41 Postby Foxfires » Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:31 pm

I haven't checked in on the tropics that much recently so I'm not 100% sure what's going on rn but did the JTWC kept being really late or something?? Because I feel like some of the estimates make sense but at the wrong time. Like, the 100kt should be around the RI phase. Unless they changed it because I haven't checked the best track.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#42 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:41 am

Batsirai seems to be intensifying again. I'd say a new peak will be attained within the next 24 hrs.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:19 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE BATSIRAI
Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 973 hPa.
Position on January 31 at 4 p.m. local Reunion: 16.2 South / 63.0 East.
Distance from the Reunion coast: 940 km to the EAST-NORTH-EAST sector
Distance from Mayotte: 1960 km to the EAST-SOUTH-EAST sector
Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.

- BATSIRAI is currently transiting North-North-West of Rodrigues Island with an influence
marginal. The peripheral bands of the system, on the other hand, begin to approach the island of
Saint Brandon.
- BATSIRAI has therefore begun a west-southwest turn, bringing it closer to Mauritius and La
Reunion, remaining a very dangerous system (potentially at the stage of Tropical Cyclone
Intense). It should circulate in the North/North-West of Mauritius on Wednesday morning then in
North/North-West of Reunion Wednesday evening and the following night at a distance which remains to be specified:
change to 200-250 km more or less 100-150 km given the uncertainty about the position of the
system at these times.
- The extent of the deterioration in conditions, which should start on Tuesday for Mauritius and Tuesday evening
for Reunion, will depend on the final trajectory. If the current scenario continues, conditions
extremes at the heart of the system should not directly concern the sister islands. The
inhabitants of Mauritius and Reunion are however invited to keep abreast of the evolution of the
situation.
- At the end of the week, BATSIRAI should approach the eastern coasts of Madagascar,
potentially still at a dangerous stage, but the area of ​​possible impact and the timeline of
his arrival are still very uncertain.


http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/activ ... e/BATSIRAI

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:14 am

latest good MW pass
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#45 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:26 am

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#46 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:55 am

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#47 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:56 am

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#48 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:54 am

Eyewall is now within Mauritius radar range

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#49 Postby Hurricane2021 » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:07 pm

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:40 pm

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:25 pm

TPXS11 PGTW 011756

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)

B. 01/1730Z

C. 17.58S

D. 59.40E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDED IN CMG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ABRAHAM


What?
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#52 Postby aspen » Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:12 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TPXS11 PGTW 011756

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)

B. 01/1730Z

C. 17.58S

D. 59.40E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDED IN CMG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ABRAHAM


What?

At least it’s not as bad as a 100kt sheared storm with no eye and a partially exposed LLC, but the bar is pretty low for this storm.

Speaking of eyes, Batsirai’s is still trying to clear out. It has a decent shot at Cat 4 intensity if it clears.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#53 Postby StormTracker89 » Tue Feb 01, 2022 4:19 pm

At the time, this was pretty good, maybe could go with 5.5 but 5.0 is in the range at that time. What you would have called it? I will say that as of 21Z it's at least a 6.0, maybe more.

Yellow Evan wrote:
TPXS11 PGTW 011756

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)

B. 01/1730Z

C. 17.58S

D. 59.40E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDED IN CMG YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ABRAHAM


What?
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#54 Postby aspen » Tue Feb 01, 2022 6:01 pm

The eye is quickly clearing now. Unless the JTWC makes an even worse call than anything else they’ve done with this storm, Batsirai will be a major at 00z.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:20 pm

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T6.5. MG embedded in CMG.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#56 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:26 pm

The cyclone is currently passing near/just south of St. Brandon, a largely uninhabited island belonging to Mauritius.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#57 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Feb 01, 2022 7:32 pm

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#58 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:02 pm

120 kt.

08S BATSIRAI 220202 0000 18.1S 58.3E SHEM 120 940
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#59 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:16 pm

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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone

#60 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:42 pm

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