SIO : BATSIRAI - Post-Tropical

[zzh]

96S INVEST 220123 0000 8.0S 86.0E SHEM 20 1004

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of January 26 at 4:11 p.m. local time in Reunion (3.11 p.m. local time in Mayotte):

A low pressure system is currently present over the South West Indian Ocean.

No other suspicious area is present and the formation of another low pressure system is not expected in the next five days.



There is no current alert in Reunion, and no hurricane threat is expected for the next 72 hours.

There is no current alert in Mayotte, and no cyclone threat is expected for the next 72 hours.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION number 2

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.
Position on January 26 at 4 p.m. local time: 14.9 South / 86.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 3320 km to the sector: EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 4470 km to sector: EAST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 26 km/h.

The tropical low pressure system 02-20212022 formed this Wednesday in the far east of the basin, near 90°E. At 12UTC, it has strengthened to the stage of Tropical Depression and is located about 2500 km east-northeast of Rodrigues Island and about 3000 km east-northeast of Mauritius .

It should continue its development in the short term and could thus reach the stage of a tropical storm between next night and the day of Thursday on a lasting trajectory towards the west to south-west, bringing it closer to the east of the Mascarenes (and in particular Rodrigues, the first territory potentially on its trajectory) from Sunday or Monday.

More significant strengthening of the system is likely as it reaches the vicinity of the eastern Mascarenes. However, the intensity and trajectory forecast is still uncertain to date, so it is still too early to know the precise impacts on inhabited lands. It will be necessary to follow closely the evolution of the forecasts over the next few days.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262121ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF/A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.5S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.7S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.2S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.4S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.2S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 82.9E.
27JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 862
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 262130).
//
NNNN

[Hurricane2021]

 https://twitter.com/EKMeteo/status/1486637896195006473



Wow. Batsirai is unexpectedly entered in a Rapid intensication phase.

[aspen]

This already has a clearing eye. This is not a 40 kt TS, although SHEM intensity estimates tend to be bad, so I won’t be surprised to see the JTWC never upgrade this.

Batsirai could be up to 80 kt by now, making the current JTWC intensity estimate and forecast one of the worst under-estimates I’ve seen in a while.

[mrbagyo]

gorgeous pinhole eye but looks like it's already doing an ERC (second image)
- Fengyun 2H and Elektro L3 can produce way better image than INSAT 3D. Don't know how to access those sat data.


10:30 UTC


11:30 UTC

[Hurricane2021]

JTWC agency hates the SHEM.


08S EIGHT 220127 1200 18.0S 80.1E SHEM 45 998

[cycloneye]

Yikes.

[cycloneye]

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE number 2
(BATSIRAI)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 165 km/h.
Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 240 km/h.
Estimated pressure at the center: 968 hPa.
Position on January 27 at 4 p.m. local time: 17.9 South / 79.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 2525 km to the sector: EAST
Distance from Mayotte: 3740 km to the sector: EAST-SOUTH-EAST
Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 41 km/h.

System Information:
- BATSIRAI experienced during the last 6 to 12 hours a spectacular intensification to reach the stage of Intense Tropical Cyclone. It is currently still very far from inhabited land (more than 1500 km) and does not present any immediate threat.

- It should continue its global movement towards the West-South-West, bringing it closer to the east of the Mascarenes and in particular Rodrigues, the first territory potentially on its trajectory from Sunday or Monday. The evolution of its intensity over the next few days is still uncertain. It should weaken by this weekend but could then experience a new phase of intensification.

- It is therefore still too early to know the precise impacts to be expected on inhabited land. Residents of all of the Mascarenes (Rodrigues, Mauritius and Reunion) are therefore invited to keep up to date with the development of BATSIRAI over the next few days.

[mrbagyo]

12:00 UTC




12:30 UTC

[Hurricane2021]

Finally an decent upgrade
 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1486686235863179269

[aspen]

Finally an decent upgrade
https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1 ... 4w9PQ&s=19

The fact that the JTWC actually went with 45 kt despite a pinhole eye and a CMG ring is just awful. Not a very strong start to the year.

[cycloneye]

JTWC updated to 90kt.

08S BATSIRAI 220127 1200 18.0S 79.6E SHEM 90 970

[Hurricane2021]

Is reasonable an peak estimate of 115 kt at 1030Z?

gorgeous pinhole eye but looks like it's already doing an ERC (second image)
- Fengyun 2H and Elektro L3 can produce way better image than INSAT 3D. Don't know how to access those sat data.


10:30 UTC


11:30 UTC

[Yellow Evan]

Coming down now but likely peaked at instantaneous DT of T6.5. I’d say this was probably the first SHEM major of the year, though confidence in pinhole eye storms is lower than normal.

[Teban54]

- Fengyun 2H and Elektro L3 can produce way better image than INSAT 3D. Don't know how to access those sat data.

This is supposedly the official Fengyun 2H satellite images from CMA, but the website is too slow for me to access in the US. Maybe you'll have better luck?

[ElectricStorm]

Very likely peaked as a major IMO. Gonna need some revisions in intensity from JTWC on this one.