SIO: EMANATI - Extratropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
zzh
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 375
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:18 pm

SIO: EMANATI - Extratropical

#1 Postby zzh » Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:57 pm

96S INVEST 220212 0000 10.8S 85.5E SHEM 15 0
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: INVEST 96S

#2 Postby aspen » Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:02 pm

I’m surprised 96S — now TC13 — hasn’t been getting much attention. Models have been consistent about a potential Cat 3/4 threat to Madagascar and neighboring islands, and the first JTWC forecast cone has an aggressive 95 kt forecast peak. Odds are good that this becomes another land-threatening major like Batsirai.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
alan1961
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 767
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2006 11:58 am
Location: Derby, Derbyshire, England
Contact:

Re: SIO: INVEST 96S

#3 Postby alan1961 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:33 pm

Image

This looks to take a similar track to Batsirai.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: SIO: INVEST 96S

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:51 pm

WTH?! A cyclone is the last thing Madagascar needs right now.
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:16 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 17, 2022 8:28 am

This one will be very strong when it makes landfall in Madagascar.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2022
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:51 pm

The latest JTWC forecast has it weakening due to upwelling from Batsirai.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Feb 17, 2022 4:03 pm

TPXS11 PGTW 175458

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE (EMNATI)

B. 17/1730Z

C. 13.70S

D. 63.68E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO EXTRAP/ANMTN. CCC TECHNIQUE YIELDS A DT OF 3.5.

MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.



ABRAHAM



Wrong scene type, correct FT.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Feb 17, 2022 4:20 pm

Image

Only 45 knots apparently.
0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:44 am

I expect an eye at around 12 hours from now. It is shrimpy. The wind shear is decreasing and emanati is organizing.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:46 am

0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Feb 18, 2022 1:00 am

Image

Likely a hurricane now. With shear out of the way, door wide open for another fairly long tracked and intense hurricane as it nears Madagascar. Ceiling probably higher than Batsirai as long as it avoids the upwelled region.
0 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:02 am

I was looking at an old satellite photo. But yeah really looks good.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:14 am

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 19, 2022 9:08 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138891
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 19, 2022 11:03 am

Some dry air around.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:30 pm

Looks like dry air and an EWRC stalled Emanati’s intensification, but an eye is starting to appear on IR imagery surrounded by -70C and colder convection. It might be starting RI now. Hopefully something else comes up to cause it to weaken before landfall.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Hurricane2021
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:54 pm
Contact:

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Feb 19, 2022 6:47 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 19, 2022 7:07 pm

Hurricane2021 wrote:https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/149517717089282457



 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/149517717089282457




You can use the "[Tweet][/Tweet]" function to see what the Tweet says. I fixed it for you ;)


EDIT: Of course he deleted the Tweet!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: EMANATI - Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 19, 2022 7:17 pm

Based on what I'm seeing on Satellite, Emanati has a full eye & it's possibly a Pinhole, only time will tell if it's a true Pinhole, or it's in the process of clearing the eye completely.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests