SIO: GOMBE - Post-Tropical

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SIO: GOMBE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Subtrop » Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:01 am

97S INVEST 220304 1200 16.0S 56.0E SHEM 15 0
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#2 Postby Hurricane2021 » Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:38 am

This storm will likely develop in a Intense Tropical Cyclone per GFS.
Threat for Mauritius and Reunion!
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#3 Postby wxman57 » Sat Mar 05, 2022 11:22 am

Hurricane2021 wrote:This storm will likely develop in a Intense Tropical Cyclone per GFS.
Threat for Mauritius and Reunion!


I wouldn't say that it's likely, given that the GFS tends to develop everything into an intense storm. It has performed poorly this season. However, I do think that the invest now qualifies for upgrade to a depression given the tight LLC on ASCAT and convection over the center. The official agency, Meteo France in La Reunion says that the circulation is elongated (it isn't now) so they're not upgrading it.
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 07, 2022 1:35 pm

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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#5 Postby wxman57 » Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:58 pm

I'm Gombe, Damnit! Next storm on the list is Pokey.
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#6 Postby aspen » Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:18 pm

Gombe’s model forecasts are all over the place. Either it gets ripped up over Madagascar and fails to emerge into the Mozambique Channel for long enough to recover, or it exploded into a very powerful major on some side of Madagascar. Today’s 12z GFS and HWRF runs are particularly aggressive; the GFS gets down to 921 mbar while the HWRF shows Gombe peaking as a 145 kt/909 mbar Cat 5. It’s too early to determine whether the very bearish or very bullish scenarios will verify, or if Gombe ends up as something in between those two extremes. Maybe another day or two and we’ll have a better idea.
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#7 Postby FireRat » Tue Mar 08, 2022 4:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm Gombe, Damnit! Next storm on the list is Pokey.




Bowser is behind all of this, I'm sure! :lol:
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#8 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 08, 2022 7:23 pm

FireRat wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm Gombe, D**nit! Next storm on the list is Pokey.




Bowser is behind all of this, I'm sure! :lol:


I absolutely could not stop laughing on the storm names.

But this is not a laughing matter here, Madagascar is being absolutely plummeted in the 2021-2022 Season, I don't recall the Island taking this kind of a pounding before!
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby StormTracker89 » Wed Mar 09, 2022 1:17 am

Looks to be getting a microwave eye already, having just emerged back over water. Definitely has the chance to rapidly intensify.
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 09, 2022 10:34 am

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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby aspen » Wed Mar 09, 2022 11:17 am

This is a pretty bad structure for RI. That massive band is robbing the core of energy despite the forming eyewall. If this succeeds in delaying Gombe’s recovery, those insane Cat 4 GFS/HWRF landfalls would be a lot less likely to verify.
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:26 pm

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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:04 pm

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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:44 am

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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Mar 10, 2022 5:06 pm



This map appears to be missing Kenneth in 2019, which was Mozambique's strongest ever landfalling cyclone.
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Mar 10, 2022 6:58 pm

Image

Not shabby appearance wise even if this was nowhere as strong as initially modeled. Likely around 95 knots.
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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:13 pm

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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:17 pm

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Re: SIO: GOMBE - Post-Tropical

#20 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:09 am

Now that the remnants are back over water, the JTWC upgraded the potential for development to medium. In the latest STWO, the JTWC says it has 48 hours over water. The MFR says redevelopment is unlikely.
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