WPAC: TD 01W - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: TD 01W - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:45 pm

Remnants of 92W renumbered
93W.INVEST

93W INVEST 220328 1800 7.6N 118.0E WPAC 15 0

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:53 pm

18Z GFS wants a TS before the end of March. Would be a coincidence if 2022 has the same timeframe of having its first named storm and also the location as 2012.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:48 pm

Now low chance
ABPW10 PGTW 290030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/290030Z-290600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.6N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 119NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. THERE IS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH SOME VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST
AS SEEN IN THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY. ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH BURGEONING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS
BEING THE BIGGEST PROPONENT FOR THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT WITH 93W
REACHING STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EAST OF THE VIETNAM
COASTLINE, WHILE ECMWF HARDLY RECOGNIZES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND DOESN’T DEVELOP THE SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER HAVE A TIGHT
GROUPING FOR BOTH ECENS AND GEFS, AND BOTH PROPAGATE 93W TO
VIETNAM WITH MOST GEFS AND ECENS MEMBERS RECOGNIZING AT LEAST
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH SYSTEM. OVERALL ASSESSMENT IS
THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND INTENSIFY IN THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Mar 28, 2022 8:23 pm

Some TS ensembles...
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:06 am

Medium
ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 116.2E, APPROXIMATELY
593NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. THE POSITION FOR 93W WAS
RELOCATED BASED ON A 290211Z ASCAT-C IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A
DEVELOPING, ELONGATED CIRCULATION ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLIES OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS (5-15
KNOTS) ELSEWHERE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO
THE EASTERN QUADRANT SUGGESTING A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 282236Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC, HOWEVER, FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST
VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING
QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD VIETNAM. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW A SIMILAR FORECAST TRACK BUT
WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:32 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 291800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 113E NW SLOWLY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:08 pm

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 292130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 113.4E TO 13.0N 109.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 114.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY
407NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. 93W HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING GRADUALLY BURROWING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THOUGH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
REMAINS OBSCURED BY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES PRIME CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN HINDRANCES AT THE MOMENT ARE THE
RELATIVELY SHORT TIME REMAINING OVER WATER AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLC. GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT 18-36 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD VIETNAM. ECMWF AND NAVGEM
SHOW A SIMILAR TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEVELOPMENT. THE
GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302130Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:36 am

01W ONE 220330 1200 12.3N 110.0E WPAC 25 1007
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:41 am

Final warning on the first warning :lol:
WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292121ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 110.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.3N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.9N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 110.0E.
30MAR22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 301219Z
AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
FINALLY FORMED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A FORTUITOUS 301343Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 20-25
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THIS ASCAT IMAGE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGE FROM T1.0
TO T1.5, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS.
TD 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12 THEN TRACK INLAND WHILE DISSIPATING.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z
IS 7 FEET.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 292130).//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

Sciencerocks
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:18 pm

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