WPAC: MEGI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:24 am

Ignore GFS as it’s likely suffering from convective feedback issues and spinning it up too fast.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#22 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 07, 2022 6:15 pm

Latest 18Z GFS run looks like it backed off for a dominant system. Still wants it to be a TS though, like the Euro before being absorbed by 02W. Latest UKMET on the other hand keeps the two systems separate that 94W can take off.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#23 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:40 pm

Back to low
ABPW10 PGTW 080330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080330Z-080600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080152ZAPR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZAPR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 08APR22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 524 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9N
128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND 072203Z 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE HOT TOWERS
TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE PHILIPPINES. ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (05 TO
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SWELTERING (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ECMWF JUMPED
ON THE BANDWAGON BY AGREEING MORE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF 94W WHICH
FORMS A MORE PROMINENT CIRCULATION BY TAU 36 AND REACHES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#24 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:06 pm

Latest UK
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#25 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:33 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 081800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 11N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.


ABPW10 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081930Z-090600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 08APR22 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 452 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 127.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY
228 NM SOUTH-EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 081807Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE
BANDS OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A NARROW BAND OF LOW (10 TO 15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE POSITION OF 94W, BUT
DISAGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK. GFS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES 94W TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 18-24 HOURS AND
KEEPS IT RATHER SMALL AND TIGHTLY WOUND BEFORE BEING SLINGSHOT INTO
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 02W. HOWEVER, ECMWF DEVELOPS IT SLOWER
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN 30-48 HOURS BEFORE
BEING ENVELOPED BY 02W. CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TREND SUGGEST
THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#26 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:46 pm

HWRF peaks to minimal cat 1
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#27 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:20 pm

JMA TC warning
WTPQ51 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 10.7N 127.1E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 10.8N 127.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 110000UTC 10.9N 127.1E 130NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120000UTC 11.3N 127.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 130000UTC 11.6N 128.3E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#28 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:42 pm

Image
WTPN21 PGTW 090200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 085 NM RADIUS OF 10.9N 127.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 126.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY
220 NM SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 082149Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS REVEALS
RAGGED BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. A
082300Z OBSERVATION FROM GUIUAN REVEALS NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT
19KT. A 082300Z SHIP OBSERVATION NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUIUAN FROM AN
UNKNOWN ELEVATION REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS AT 26KT. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS 20-25KT WINDS AROUND THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, CONSISTING OF ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE POSITION OF 94W BUT DIFFER ON INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK. GFS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES 94W TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 18-24
HOURS AND KEEPS IT RATHER SMALL AND TIGHTLY WOUND BEFORE BEING
SLINGSHOT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 02W. HOWEVER,
ECMWF SHOWS MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100200Z.
//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Apr 08, 2022 9:32 pm

Image

Classifiable.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#30 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 08, 2022 10:06 pm

Now 03W after TCFA just ~1 hour ago.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#31 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 08, 2022 10:22 pm

Could have a very difficult forecast since 3W & Malakas may interact with each other in the next few days.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#32 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 08, 2022 10:43 pm

40 kt peak
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Apr 08, 2022 11:59 pm

0z GFS now has this cleanly getting absorbed by Malakas.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#34 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:20 pm

03W THREE 220409 1800 11.0N 126.3E WPAC 30 1000
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#35 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:04 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#36 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:41 pm

It's safe to say 03W has intensifed into a tropical storm. Over the past few hours, Guiuan station close to the center has continuously reported TS-force sustained winds (60m height) and a min SLP of 995.4 mb.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#37 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:46 pm

Looks like models have delayed this getting destroyed by Malakas
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#38 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:59 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W

#39 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:13 pm

JMA CI 2.0. Could be Megi now
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 09, 2022 8:22 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2202 MEGI (2202) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 10.8N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 11.0N 125.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 120000UTC 11.4N 125.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 130000UTC 11.2N 127.3E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =‎‎‎‎
Last edited by Hayabusa on Sat Apr 09, 2022 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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