WPAC: MEGI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

The one near 155E is finally an invest.

94W.INVEST

94W INVEST 220331 0000 6.1N 154.4E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Although very weak, models are persistent in tracking it.
18Z

[Hayabusa]

Now low chance

ABPW10 PGTW 311430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/311430ZMAR2022-010600ZAPR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2S
152.7E, APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST OF CHUUK, FEDERATED STATES OF
MICRONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIRECTLY OVER A WEAK, RAGGED, AND
IRREGULAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AS EVIDENT BY A 311136Z DIRECT
ASCAT PASS. THE LLC LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS), DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE EQUATORIAL AND STRONG ZONAL
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THAT 94W WILL PROCEED WESTWARD
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10-15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TOPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 010030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/010030Z-010600ZAPR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
7.2N 152.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA. ENHANCED
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 312015Z SSMIS 91GHZ
PASS DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS 20KT WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

Not bad right now. ASCAT and HY-2C scatterometer pass 7 hours apart show that the LLCC has quickly become better defined. Looks like dry air will keep it from developing further in the short term, however.

[Hayabusa]

If the long range is right then this would only really start to intensify once it gets stalled over/west of the Philippines.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 011300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011300Z-020600ZAPR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 150.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[doomhaMwx]

Poof!

[Hayabusa]

12Z is still the same Euro and GFS intensifies it to a TS as it moves slowly over/west of the Philippines.

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro 00Z. An intensifying TC from the west and making landfall. An interesting uncommon track if that verifies, GFS shows it too but it tries to make another circulation that absorbs 94W instead.

[Hayabusa]

Multi

EPS

[Hayabusa]

The GFS solution is I would say quack, making a strong typhoon west of the Philippines in April. But after what happened with Surigae and Rai, I don't know now if I would say it's completely quack.

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro no significant deepening, but ensemble support still strong

[Hayabusa]

Back to low

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031821ZAPR2022
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040432Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
LOOSELY INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE MEANDERING IN A QUASISTATIONARY MANNER OVER THE PHILIPPINES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

This would be a flooding scenario if this occurred

[Hayabusa]

Remains low

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZAPR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 131.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 159
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041939Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO AN
ELONGATED, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLC IS EVIDENCED BY A 050126Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS HAS IMPROVED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT)
VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF 94W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MEANDERING IN A
QUASISTATIONARY MANNER OVER THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Recent runs from the Euro calls for a binary interaction with the eastern storm.

[Hayabusa]

Interesting some ensemble is now showing the possibility of circulation forming west of the Philippines. The GFS is developing it and I'm still inclined it could be another fail-hype.

[Hayabusa]

Latest 00Z GFS is a mess , it makes 94W the dominant storm

[Hayabusa]

06Z is the same makes 94W the dominant one