WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#21 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:58 am

There’s a wide range of solutions for 95W’s future on the models this morning. The GFS has 94W become the dominant system and absorb 95W, while the Euro has 95W as the dominant system while the HWRF shows both merging into a new system. The interactions between the two systems could keep 95W on the weaker side for some time.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:24 pm

Low center semiexposed.

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WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#23 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:39 pm

02W TWO 220407 0000 3.6N 148.4E WPAC 25 1003
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#24 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:19 pm

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WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 3.6N 148.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 640 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY
COMPACT CIRCULATION WHICH HAS TUCKED UNDER A FLARE-UP IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, AFTER HAVING BEEN FULLY EXPOSED OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW
HOURS. THE VERY SMALL LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER REGION OF
CYCLONIC ROTATION, OUTLINED BY AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION,
WHICH MARK THE LOW LEVEL LINES OF CONVERGENCE, PARTICULARLY ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. EVEN WITH A THE DEARTH OF RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, THANKS TO THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LLCC, TRACKING VIA
ANIMATED MSI PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE CONGRUENCE ACROSS THREE FIXING AGENCIES, AS WELL AS A 062352Z
PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF 25KT WINDS EXTENDING
NORTH FROM THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE, TO THE OUTER CONVERGENT
LINE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE, THOUGH NOT HIGH
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME, WITH WARM SSTS, AND LOW SHEAR, BUT ONLY
MODERATE EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND NO OUTFLOW CHANNELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER HAVING BEEN OBSCURED MOST OF THE NIGHT,
THE SUNRISE EXPOSED THE FACT THAT THE LLCC RESIDED TO THE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUSLY FLARING CONVECTION AND BROUGHT RENEWED CLARITY TO
THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST
AT THE 1800Z HOUR. THE LOW LEVEL CORE HAS SINCE TUCKED UNDER A
SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, ENABLED BY THE REDUCTION IN THE
EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH EARLIER HAD DECOUPLED THE CONVECTION FROM THE
LOW LEVEL. NOW THAT THE TWO HAVE MARRIED UP ONCE MORE, THE SYSTEM
CAN NOW BEGIN TO INTENSIFY. TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG STR CENTERED NEAR 22N
160E. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THE STR IS EXPECTED TO FIRST MOVE
TO THE EAST, THEN REORIENT TO A MORE MERIDIONAL STATE, THEN EXTEND
TO THE SOUTHWEST, RIDGING TOWARDS THE EQUATOR, UNDER TD 02W. IN
RESPONSE, TD 02W WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO MORE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TOWARDS THE NORTH AS IT
ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUE TO THE
SMALL NATURE OF THE CORE AND THE RELATIVELY LARGE RADIUS OF THE
OUTER MOST ISOBAR, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
FIRST 24-48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES AND UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE SUPPORTIVE, IS NOT OPTIMUM FOR MORE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 48, AND THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY MORE
QUICKLY THEREAFTER, TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THERE IS
HOWEVER AND SIGNIFICANT DELTA BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL
FIELDS, WITH THE GFS DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY LARGE AND
INTENSE TYPHOON IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA TO THE WEST OF TD 02W. IF
THIS SYSTEM INDEED DEVELOPS, THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH THE JTWC
FORECAST HEDGES TOWARDS, WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE. THE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO, AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF, IS THAT NOTHING DEVELOPS IN THE
AREA TO THE WEST AND THUS TD 02W TAKES A TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST, BEFORE RECURVING NEAR THE 133W LONGITUDE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WEAK BIFURCATION, BETWEEN THE ECMWF, THE EC ENSEMBLE, AND THE UKMET
AND ENSEMBLE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, AND THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE
AND NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS ROUGHLY
250NM, INCREASING TO 425NM AT TAU 120. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH LARGE SPREAD. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED MORE PROBABLE AND THUS THE JTWC FORECAST
HEDGES TOWARDS THIS MODEL SOLUTION BUT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC TRACK LINE DUE TO AN UNREALISTIC JUMP IN THE TRACKER
THAT GFS IS DEPICTING AT TAU 36, TRACKING THE CENTER DUE NORTH OR
EVEN NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE RESUMING THE NORTHWEST
TRACK. THIS IS UNLIKELY, AND THUS THE GFS TRACKER IS LIKELY TOO FAR
TO THE EAST WITH THIS RUN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIKES EAST OF THE
CONSENSUS MEAN AFTER TAU 72 WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS MIXED, WITH THE HWRF AND AHNI BEING OF LITTLE FAITH IN THE
SYSTEM WITH WEAK INTENSIFICATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SHOW FAIRLY QUICK INTENSIFICATION TO AROUND TAU 120, WITH A
RANGE OF PEAKS BETWEEN 55-95 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ON THE
LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND BELOW THE MEAN THROUGH TAU 36, THEN
CROSSES TO BE HIGHER THAN THE MEAN THEREAFTER, MOST CLOSELY
TRACKING THE COAMPS-TC (GFS) GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGH
TAU 72, AND LOW THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#25 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:51 pm

The potential binary interraction between this and 94W should be interesting...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#26 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:22 pm

It's unnerving on which system would get named first, if we look at the latest GFS, it's hard to tell if 02W or 94W would get the name Malakas.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:26 am

Hayabusa wrote:It's unnerving on which system would get named first, if we look at the latest GFS, it's hard to tell if 02W or 94W would get the name Malakas.


94W is not well organized right now so the GFS is likely spinning it up too fast. 02W looks decent and probably close to tropical storm status already. Unless 94W organizes suddenly, I expect 02W to be dominant.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:37 am

TXPQ23 KNES 070613
TCSWNP

A. 02W (NONAME)

B. 07/0530Z

C. 4.1N

D. 147.5E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...2.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE
MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET SINCE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT
CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE


Don’t understand how SAB is getting .25 banding.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#29 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Apr 07, 2022 3:23 am

02W TWO 220407 0600 4.0N 147.6E WPAC 30 1002
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#30 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Apr 07, 2022 12:08 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 07, 2022 3:57 pm

JTWC upgrades to TS but JMA is still at TD. Peak at 105kt.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#32 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 07, 2022 5:07 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#33 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Apr 07, 2022 7:41 pm

A 072331Z ASCAT-B pass shows the wind is around 40knots near the center.
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WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:17 pm

Now named Malakas, now see if Malakas would live up to its name
WTPQ50 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2201 MALAKAS (2201) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 04.5N 146.0E POOR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 06.4N 144.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 100000UTC 09.4N 141.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 110000UTC 13.1N 138.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 120000UTC 16.6N 136.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 130000UTC 18.1N 136.1E 360NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby Hurricane2021 » Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:44 pm

Malakas is now a 40 kt Storm but the JTWC lowered the peak intensity to 100 kt

120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.3N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:01 pm

Some good latest discussion about 94W and Malakas
WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 5.1N 146.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 524 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RELATIVELY
ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING CONVECTION
EXTENDING IN A LINEAR FASHION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY, STREAMING IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
WHILE MUCH WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW IS SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A 072331Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
CONFIRMED THE ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AND THE STRONG, UP TO 40 KNOTS, WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, AS THE BEST TRACK WAS PLACED IN THE
APPROXIMATE CENTROID OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION, ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS, WHEN IN FACT THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE
VORTICITY CENTERS UNDER THE CONVECTION AS THE LATEST GFS AND HWRF
MODEL FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST. WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED,
IT IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING, AS SHOWN IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, AS
WELL AS A 072006Z SMAP PASS BOTH OF WHICH SHOWED BROAD SWATHS OF 40
KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. AGENCY FIXES, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RJTD, ARE ALL AT T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BUT THE OBJECTIVE
ADT AND SATCON ARE UNREALISTICALLY HIGH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 072024Z
CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 072340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
OTHER FACTORS: ELONGATED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 94W INDUCES AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO TO
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.


FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TS MALAKAS IS STRUGGLING
TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGULAR AND DISCREET LOW LEVEL CENTER. GFS
AND HWRF HAVE BEEN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS, BUT THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND MOST RECENT ANIMATED MSI
CONFIRM IT. HENCE IN THE NEAR-TERM, WHILE SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), THIS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE
TIME TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER BEFORE IT CAN INTENSIFY AT MORE THAN A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, BUT BY THIS POINT THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED A MORE COMPACT CORE, AND THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION WILL INCREASE THEREAFTER, TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, WHICH IS DOMINATED BY THE STR
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST, WHILE RIDGING TOWARDS
THE EQUATOR, EFFECTIVELY REORIENTING THE RIDGE AXIS MORE MERIDIONAL
AND ALLOWING TS 02W TO TRANSIT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING HAS NOT CHANGED, THE
PRIMARY DETERMINANT IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT,
OR NON-DEVELOPMENT, OF INVEST 94W, CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF
MINDANAO. THE GFS HAS BEEN BULLISH ON DEVELOPING 94W FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, WHILE ECMWF HAS IGNORED IT, THAT IS UNTIL NOW. WITH THE
LATEST RUN, ECMWF HAS NOW JUMPED ON THE BANDWAGON, WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF 94W INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST,
UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION AND FUJIWHARA WITH TS 02W, AND
ULTIMATELY IS ABSORBED WITHIN TS MAKALAS. GFS HAS SHOWN A
CONSISTENTLY SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WHILE THIS
POSSIBILITY IS STILL CONSIDERED AS A RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY,
WITH THE RECENT CHANGE IN THE ECMWF MODEL TO COME ON BOARD, THE
POSSIBILITY IS INCREASING, LEADING TO AN ALTERNATE FORECAST
SCENARIO, WHICH REFLECTS TC DEVELOPMENT FROM 94W WHICH WOULD PULL
THE TRACK OF TS 02W FURTHER WEST, LINGERING NEAR 135E FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME BEFORE RACING NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THROUGH TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFS, WHICH MAY BE JUMPING VORTICES WITHIN THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION, AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM DUE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 24. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED,
BUT AS PRECISION DOES NOT EQUAL ACCURACY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAU 0-72 FORECAST DUE TO THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE,
WITH THE GFS BITING OFF ON THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH 94W, TURNING
THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, LINGERING FOR 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR JOG TO THE WEST BY TAU 120,
THOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HOLD THE LINE ON THE STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, THOUGH THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, GALWEM AND NAVGEM SHOW A SHARP RECURVE BY TAU
120, LEADING TO A NEARLY 600NM SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WHILE THE RI AIDS CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER, THE EVIDENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE CORE MEANS THAT ANY
NEAR-TERM RI IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND THESE AIDS ARE DISCARDED. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE LIKELY, WITH NEAR-TERM SLOW
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE, EXCEPT HWRF
AND COAMPS-TC, INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC LIES
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 48 THEN DEPARTS WELL ABOVE
THE MEAN THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HOWEVER DUE TO THE
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF CORE CONSOLIDATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BINARY
INTERACTION AND MERGER WITH 94W, WHICH WOULD IMPACT A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON THE ULTIMATE INTENSITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

Sciencerocks
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Apr 08, 2022 10:25 am

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Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:06 pm

:uarrow: Looks like some easterly shear there.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Apr 08, 2022 5:30 pm

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:10 pm

4 hours ago smap, 62 knots. The shearing looks like it's struggling but is it underestimated?
WP, 02, 202204082044, 30, SMAP, IR, , 650N, 14460E, , 1, 58, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202204082044, 30, SMAP, IR, , 650N, 14460E, , 1, 58, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202204082044, 30, SMAP, IR, , 650N, 14460E, , 1, 58, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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