WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#81 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:54 am

Winds still need to catch up but this is almost a 5.5 on Dvorak.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#82 Postby Hurricane2021 » Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:07 am

02W MALAKAS 220412 1200 16.1N 135.4E WPAC 95 958


<Analysis at 21 JST, 2022/04/12>
Scale Large
Intensity/Category Typhoon
Center Position 16.1N 135.3E
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40m/s (80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s (115kt)
≥ 50-kt wind area ALL 130km (70NM)
≥ 30-kt wind area E 700km (375NM) W 560km (300NM)

<Forecast for 21 JST, 2022/04/13>
Intensity/Category Very Strong Typhoon
Center Position 19.3N 137.1E
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h (9kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45m/s (90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s (130kt)
Radius of probability circle 80km (42NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220km (120NM)
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:19 am

TXPQ22 KNES 121223
TCSWNP

A. 02W (MALAKAS)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 16.1N

D. 135.3E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN DT
5.5 AFTER EYE ADJ OF 0.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#84 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:46 am

looking quite gorgeous now.
Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#85 Postby aspen » Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:16 am

This might be having issues with dry air again. The NNW side of the CDO is pretty warm and thin.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#86 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:41 pm

TXPQ22 KNES 121801
TCSWNP

A. 02W (MALAKAS)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 16.7N

D. 135.9E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED BY LG RESULTS IN DT OF
5.5 AFTER EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/1612Z 16.7N 135.9E GMI


...BROWN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:43 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 APR 2022 Time : 174000 UTC
Lat : 16:42:35 N Lon : 135:57:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 940mb / 115kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +11.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#88 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 12, 2022 6:01 pm

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#89 Postby aspen » Tue Apr 12, 2022 6:33 pm

What’s going on with GOES and Himawari on Tropical Tidbits? This is the longest I’ve ever seen satellite imagery being delayed.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#90 Postby Hurricane2021 » Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:43 pm

02W MALAKAS 220413 0000 17.3N 136.4E WPAC 105 950
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#91 Postby Subtrop » Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:24 am

02W MALAKAS 220413 0600 17.9N 137.0E WPAC 115 939
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#92 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Apr 13, 2022 4:36 am

Malakas continues to intensify and is now the first major typhoon this year. Agency fixes range from T5.0 (90kts) to T5.5 (102kts) while ADT has it T6.4 (125kts). Initial intensity is set at 115kts, but it may be unrealistically high due to the presence of a loose CDO. I would say it's just 95-100kts now.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#93 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:29 am

Pretty sad there are no smap fixes right when it started to ramp up.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#94 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:50 am

Nancy Smar wrote:Malakas continues to intensify and is now the first major typhoon this year. Agency fixes range from T5.0 (90kts) to T5.5 (102kts) while ADT has it T6.4 (125kts). Initial intensity is set at 115kts, but it may be unrealistically high due to the presence of a loose CDO. I would say it's just 95-100kts now.

115 kt seems good. This looks like a typical low-end Cat 4, and while the CDO is lopsided, it’s much smoother than when it was a high 2/low 3.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#95 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 13, 2022 8:27 am

It has reached the peak and is downhill from here.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#96 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Apr 13, 2022 11:41 am

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:08 pm

Image

Best it’s ever looked. Solid T6.5 and axisymmetrization and improved eye definition has happened.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#98 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:11 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 APR 2022 Time : 171000 UTC
Lat : 19:40:12 N Lon : 137:21:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 929mb / 122kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +5.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#99 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:42 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 131829

A. TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS)

B. 13/1750Z

C. 19.62N

D. 137.51E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.0. MET IS
5.5. PT IS 5.0

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


WILLIAMS


Worst Dvorak fix I’ve seen in a year or two.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#100 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:50 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TPPN10 PGTW 131829

A. TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS)

B. 13/1750Z

C. 19.62N

D. 137.51E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.0. MET IS
5.5. PT IS 5.0

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


WILLIAMS


Worst Dvorak fix I’ve seen in a year or two.

How the heck does he get a T#5.0 Cat 2 from this?
Image
Easy 115-125 kt, but with that fix, the JTWC might downgrade Malakas to 105-110 kt.
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