WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 08, 2022 8:23 pm

Hayabusa wrote:4 hours ago smap, 62 knots. The shearing looks like it's struggling but is it underestimated?
WP, 02, 202204082044, 30, SMAP, IR, , 650N, 14460E, , 1, 58, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202204082044, 30, SMAP, IR, , 650N, 14460E, , 1, 58, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202204082044, 30, SMAP, IR, , 650N, 14460E, , 1, 58, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained


SMAP is a mixed bag when it comes to TC intensity. This is no more than a 3.0/2.5 on Dvorak depending on the scene type. 40kts is the most I would give it.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Apr 08, 2022 9:28 pm

Easterly shear appears to be caused by a displaced ULAC, which is disrupting further intensification despite very cold cloud tops. The sudden development of 94W also throws a wrench into Malakas, which the GFS called for but I did not expect.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 09, 2022 1:23 am

Malakas is going to be big after it absorbs 03W (if it happens), could be one of the records in size.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Apr 09, 2022 3:52 am

03W looks more organized than Malakas atm
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:17 pm

02W MALAKAS 220409 1800 9.7N 142.0E WPAC 55 988
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby Teban54 » Sat Apr 09, 2022 2:45 pm

I have to say, having the WPAC storms on Tropical Tidbits makes it so much easier for me to track them.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 09, 2022 3:00 pm

Much much better today but it's still bothered by easterly shear. The LLC is still on the eastern edge of that big convective mass.

Image

Also getting hit by 15kt southerly mid-shear. It'll do better the more west it can get.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:37 pm

Teban54 wrote:I have to say, having the WPAC storms on Tropical Tidbits makes it so much easier for me to track them.

It’s great having high resolution 10-minute and 3-minute satellite loops for all WPac storms now. I also prefer TT’s infrared colors to those on WeatherNerds and some other sites, and now it’ll be easier to compare Atlantic/EPac storms to WPac storms since they’ll all have the same filter.

Malakas will likely become the first WPac major with TT satellite imagery, and since it’s not going to impact anybody, I’m excited for that.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:13 pm

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 10, 2022 3:28 am

Slowly stacking. Should be a Typhoon tomorrow. Will be battling some dry air too.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:08 am

Recent MetOp-C images show the presence of a partial eyewall. Looks like Malakas could intensify further to typhoon strength overnight.
Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:10 pm

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:45 pm

Image

Large core forming. Dry air will likely prevent instant intensification but we’ll see some due to favorable jet interaction and the ULAC.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 10, 2022 7:06 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/962828903683084338/20220410.1927.f16.91pct91h91v.02W.MALAKAS.55kts.987mb.11.9N.136.9E.070pc.jpg

Large core forming. Dry air will likely prevent instant intensification but we’ll see some due to favorable jet interaction and the ULAC.

I have a feeling that initial eye won’t last long, since the western convective band is much stronger and dry air will likely be coming in between the band and core. Since Malakas is so large, I’m also a little doubtful it’ll be able to surpass about 100-105 kt.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Apr 10, 2022 7:45 pm

TXPQ22 KNES 110019
TCSWNP

A. 02W (MALAKAS)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 12.5N

D. 136.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...A LLCC EMBEDDED IN LIGHT GREY COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT
EQUAL TO 4.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT BASED ON A DEVELOPING TREND
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A RECENT 2122Z SSMIS MI PASS SHOWS INTENSIFYING
CONVECTIVE FEATURES AROUND THE LLCC. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT LLCC POSITION IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/2122Z 12.2N 136.4E SSMIS


...SAMBUCCI
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 10, 2022 8:31 pm

I don't know about assessing this 80kts as that Dvorak fix estimates. Microwave does show a developing core but it's large and disorganized. It's still struggling with dry air and a bit of shear. This is likely closer to 60kts.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I don't know about assessing this 80kts as that Dvorak fix estimates. Microwave does show a developing core but it's large and disorganized. It's still struggling with dry air and a bit of shear. This is likely closer to 60kts.


Image

Supports 55 knots given ASCAT's low bias. SAB likely switched away from a curved band feature too soon.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby Hurricane2021 » Mon Apr 11, 2022 8:02 am

First typhoon of 2022! :sun:
02W MALAKAS 220411 1200 14.2N 135.7E WPAC 65 978
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 11, 2022 9:48 am

Hurricane2021 wrote:
First typhoon of 2022! :sun:
02W MALAKAS 220411 1200 14.2N 135.7E WPAC 65 978

That's what the JTWC has been saying, the good news is that it's expected to recurve away from The Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby StormTracker89 » Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:47 pm

JTWC 12Z reasoning message references development of a "pinhole eye" in the multispectral imagery. What pinhole eye? I don't see any eye at all, let alone a pinhole. What you guys looking at?
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