WPAC: INVEST 90W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: INVEST 90W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:56 pm

The one I initially expected, and it's now closer southeast of Mindanao
90W.INVEST

90W INVEST 220501 0000 5.0N 127.0E WPAC 15 1008

Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:21 pm

Well there is ensemble "support"
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 01, 2022 5:12 pm

Now low but can it really surprise us?
ABPW10 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/012100Z-020600ZMAY2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2N
128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT
DISTURBANCE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AND FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. A PARTIAL
011631Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE INCREASING (10-15
KNOTS) INFLOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT
INITIALIZING THIS SMALL SYSTEM WELL AND DO NOT INDICATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THEY DO TRACK THE DISTURBANCE
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 01, 2022 9:19 pm

Hayabusa wrote:The one I initially expected, and it's now closer southeast of Mindanao
90W.INVEST

90W INVEST 220501 0000 5.0N 127.0E WPAC 15 1008

https://i.imgur.com/uRFfZYO.jpg


I mean it looks good here.
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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Mon May 02, 2022 4:58 am

Hmmm
90W INVEST 220502 0600 5.7N 127.9E WPAC 20 1005
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 02, 2022 2:19 pm

Convection reverted back to being popcorny vs consolidating.
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