SIO: KARIM - Post Tropical

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cycloneye
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SIO: KARIM - Post Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 04, 2022 5:08 am

90S INVEST 220504 0600 6.5S 89.9E SHEM 15 1006
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90S

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 04, 2022 12:55 pm

Models have it as a fairly strong cyclone.

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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90S

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 05, 2022 7:04 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.5S 90.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 89.7E, APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 041417Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO A
FULLY EXPOSED AND VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTARDLY AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90S

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 05, 2022 3:18 pm

JTWC updated but still remains low.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 698 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051312Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL POORLY
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO A FULLY EXPOSED AND VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AND GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90S

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 05, 2022 4:27 pm

More concentrated convection.

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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90S

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 05, 2022 8:26 pm

JTWC upgrades to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2S 86.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 633 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE AREA WRAPPING INTO
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND LOW (5-
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE
INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90S

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 06, 2022 9:59 am

TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 061400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2S 87.8E TO 10.0S 88.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.5S 87.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.1S 88.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 87.9E, APPROXIMATELY 636 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061114Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTION AT THE CORE OF A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLC, BUT IS CONSTRAINED TO A FAIRLY SMALL REGION ABOUT THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). NOTE THAT CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA LACKS AMV
DATA AT THIS TIME AND HAND ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS
SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTUAL VWS VALUES ARE LOWER THAN THE CIMSS
ANALYSIS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071400Z.//
NNNN


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Re: SPAC: INVEST 90S: TCFA issued

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 06, 2022 1:42 pm

Some work to do to be a TC but is getting close.

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Re: SPAC: KARIM - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 4:40 am

Image
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Re: SPAC: KARIM - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 8:57 am

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Re: SIO: KARIM - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 07, 2022 1:15 pm

Looks pretty good for May in this area of the world but this is not the SPAC.
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Re: SIO: KARIM - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 1:18 pm

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Re: SIO: KARIM - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 07, 2022 4:28 pm

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Re: SIO: KARIM - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 08, 2022 8:01 pm

Still looks good but will begin to weaken soon.

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