BOB: 02B - ASANI - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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Re: BOB: 02B - Deep Depression

#41 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 07, 2022 11:24 pm

Yeah the warm spot hasn't been present for a couple of hours now. But no doubt a hurricane.
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Re: BOB: 02B - Deep Depression

#42 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun May 08, 2022 2:46 am

06Z JTWC estimate came in at 65kts (category 1), which is also supported by an ASCAT pass from a few hours ago. Asani has probably peaked though as the effects of easterly shear on the system are becoming more pronounced.
02B ASANI 220508 0600 11.7N 88.6E IO 65 981


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Re: BOB: 02B - ASANI - Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 08, 2022 5:21 am

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Re: BOB: 02B - ASANI - Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun May 08, 2022 7:28 am

It's already becoming exposed.

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Re: BOB: 02B - Deep Depression

#45 Postby wxman57 » Sun May 08, 2022 8:45 am

cycloneye wrote:This is the worse I have seen a agency on classifications. JMA for WPAC is not too stellar but is way better than IMD.


Yes, IMD is often challenged when making intensity estimates. In the WPAC, we were attempting to perform some verifications but JMA's and JTWC's "best track" data was quite far apart in both intensity estimates and position. Each "best track" favored its own agency's forecasts. Of course, one issue with JMA is that is only considers 10-min winds. The other issue is JMA's use of the Koba scale for classification, which results in a much lower intensity estimate. South of the Equator, BoM requires tropical storm-force winds to extend more than half way around the center for an upgrade. I believe they also use 2-min or 3-min winds.

Each basin has a different classification method. NHC is, by far, the most "lenient" in granting a name for a weak system. The IMD is on the opposite end of the scale.

Given that convection near the center has dissipated, Asani has definitely weakened. Maybe 50-55 kts now.
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Re: BOB: 02B - ASANI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 08, 2022 8:06 pm

Down to 55kt at 00z best track.

02B ASANI 220509 0000 14.0N 86.1E IO 55 988

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Re: BOB: 02B - ASANI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#47 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue May 10, 2022 5:58 am

02B ASANI 220510 0600 14.9N 82.3E IO 65 977

Though Asani is obviously feeling the impacts of unfavorable shear, it has actually been faring better than expected these past few days. JTWC's 65kt (cat 1) estimate appears to be too generous though, judging from a new MW pass just after the estimate was made.

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Re: BOB: 02B - ASANI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#48 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 10, 2022 10:52 am

Close to making landfall in eastern India and the main hazard will be the copious rains that will cause flooding and mudslides.

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Re: BOB: 02B - ASANI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 10, 2022 12:42 pm

Effects being felt in India. Look at the zinc flying.

 https://twitter.com/HavaForum/status/1523972768714399745


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Re: BOB: 02B - ASANI - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#50 Postby shah83 » Tue May 10, 2022 10:32 pm

The CMC takes the trophy for this storm...
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