EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#341 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 10:00 am

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Outer rain bands continue to spread across southern Mexico as the
core of Agatha closes in on the coast, and conditions will
steadily worsen throughout the day in the state of Oaxaca. The
satellite presentation of the system has been relatively steady
state for the past several hours with hints of an eye occasionally
appearing within the central dense overcast. Convection remains
quite deep and symmetric around the center. Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at 5.0, and therefore, the
initial intensity is again held at 95 kt. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is nearing the system and the data it collects will
be quite helpful in assessing the strength and structure of Agatha.

Agatha is moving to the northeast at 7 kt, and this motion should
take the core of the hurricane to the coast of Oaxaca this
afternoon. Not much change was made to the previous NHC track
forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The hurricane is expected to maintain its current intensity until
the core reaches the coast later today. After landfall, rapid
weakening is forecast, and Agatha will likely dissipate over
the rugged terrain of southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.
However, the global models suggest that the mid-level remnants will
merge with a broader low pressure system, which is being monitored
for potential development in the Atlantic basin.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected near and
to the east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon
and continuing through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
have already begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread
eastward within the warning area through tonight.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 15.3N 97.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 17.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#342 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 30, 2022 10:14 am

That 90kts SFMR does not seem to match FL winds, the center pressure is high at 977mb as well for 90 kts.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#343 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 10:18 am

Plane finds a weaker Agatha with extrapolated pressure of 979 mbs.

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#344 Postby kevin » Mon May 30, 2022 10:22 am

Looks like Agatha peaked as a high-end cat 2. It's probably around 976mb/80-85kt right now based on a blend of SFMR (91 kt) and the estimated surface winds (83 kt) while also taking into account that the FL winds are unusually low (80 kt). Perhaps we'll know more after a second pass. I think recon yesterday arrived at just the right time, I think Agatha started weakening very soon afterwards as the core was blown apart. If it weren't for the shear this definitely could've become a MH, but considering it's this close to land I'm happy that the worst-case scenario didn't seem to come to pass. Still it's a very dangerous cat 1/2 hurricane which will bring TS winds to a large portion of the Mexican coast.
Last edited by kevin on Mon May 30, 2022 10:25 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#345 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 30, 2022 10:22 am

Two unflagged 90 kts SFMR in NW quad but FL winds only at 70 kts
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#346 Postby zzh » Mon May 30, 2022 10:24 am

Highest flight-level wind is 81kt. This only supports a category 1 hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#347 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 10:25 am

kevin wrote:Looks like Agatha peaked as a high-end cat 2. It's probably around 976mb/80-85kt right now based on a blend of SFMR (91 kt) and the estimated surface winds (83 kt). FL winds are a bit low, but perhaps we'll know more after a second pass. I think recon yesterday arrived at just the right time, I think Agatha started weakening very soon afterwards as the core was blown apart. If it weren't for the shear this definitely could've become a MH, but considering it's this close to land I'm happy that the worst-case scenario didn't seem to come to pass. Still it's a very dangerous cat 1/2 hurricane which will bring TS winds to a large portion of the Mexican coast.


And also heavy rains that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#348 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 30, 2022 10:27 am

SFMR still supports 90 knots, both with the old and new SFMR curves. Not unreasonable to think this is still a Category 2 hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#349 Postby skyline385 » Mon May 30, 2022 10:38 am

Yellow Evan wrote:SFMR still supports 90 knots, both with the old and new SFMR curves. Not unreasonable to think this is still a Category 2 hurricane.


Think without UL winds to support them, those probably wont last long once it starts interacting with land
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#350 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 10:47 am

The Sierra Madre sur mountains are in the area of landfall so the circulation will be severly affected rapidly.

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#351 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 12:07 pm

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#352 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 30, 2022 12:14 pm

Image

Clearly bombing before landfall per this and Recon but is slop on IR.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#353 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon May 30, 2022 12:18 pm

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#354 Postby galaxy401 » Mon May 30, 2022 12:22 pm

Agatha probably weakened to a Cat 1 overnight and is now trying to restrengthen into a Cat 2 again though it might not have the time since landfall is coming shortly.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#355 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 12:31 pm

Close-up of faint eye trying to show up but landfall is near.

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#356 Postby norva13x » Mon May 30, 2022 12:32 pm

My brother is in Oaxaca right now on the coast. Not exactly sure where but I know right on the coast. I'm very concerned at the moment. Didn't expect a strong storm like this so early.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#357 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 12:35 pm

norva13x wrote:My brother is in Oaxaca right now on the coast. Not exactly sure where but I know right on the coast. I'm very concerned at the moment. Didn't expect a strong storm like this so early.


Do you know the name of the town where he is?
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#358 Postby norva13x » Mon May 30, 2022 12:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:
norva13x wrote:My brother is in Oaxaca right now on the coast. Not exactly sure where but I know right on the coast. I'm very concerned at the moment. Didn't expect a strong storm like this so early.


Do you know the name of the town where he is?


Puerto Escondido
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#359 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 12:40 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA...
...CORE OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 96.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#360 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 30, 2022 12:58 pm

norva13x wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
norva13x wrote:My brother is in Oaxaca right now on the coast. Not exactly sure where but I know right on the coast. I'm very concerned at the moment. Didn't expect a strong storm like this so early.


Do you know the name of the town where he is?


Puerto Escondido


It's approaching them, really close. Could be landfall spot if not nearby between there and Mazunte it seems.
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