EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

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NDG
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#381 Postby NDG » Mon May 30, 2022 7:22 pm

toad strangler wrote:
NDG wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
He rarely communicates right after a landfall. Kinda his MO. He's gonna go get pics of him help clearing a road or saving a child first.


After landfall is another thing, he didn't tweet at all while it was making landfall which he usually does is the unusual part of it.


These days that might be because of his Weather Nation gig. He might be contracted with them for the red meat. But the Mogerman post landfall black out is notorious and goes all the way back to his days at the once venerable Eastern Weather Forum.


Nothing at the Weather Nation Twitter Page, all Tweets with him in it were well before landfall.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#382 Postby toad strangler » Mon May 30, 2022 7:26 pm

NDG wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
NDG wrote:
After landfall is another thing, he didn't tweet at all while it was making landfall which he usually does is the unusual part of it.


These days that might be because of his Weather Nation gig. He might be contracted with them for the red meat. But the Mogerman post landfall black out is notorious and goes all the way back to his days at the once venerable Eastern Weather Forum.


Nothing at the Weather Nation Twitter Page, all Tweets with him in it were well before landfall.


Yep, I'm sure he got sick video as it was still daylight and hopefully great readings. He usually does. He'll pop up.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Hurricane

#383 Postby Lost Sock » Mon May 30, 2022 7:54 pm

NDG wrote:I guess communications are down in that area because Josh Morgerman hasn't tweeted in over 7 hours. I bet because of the mountainous terrain a lot of the cell towers are up high on the hills where even stronger winds were probably present.


I live about 50kms along the coast where Agatha made landfall (Puerto Angel), power or communications weren’t lost here in Huatulco or from what I gather in Puerto Escondido where I have friends. Puerto seemed to get the winds & rain, here in Huatulco only a lot of rain although it’s pretty breezy out there right now.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#384 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 30, 2022 9:37 pm

Downgraded.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...AGATHA COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 96.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha continues to move farther
inland, with a less organized cloud pattern. The initial wind speed
is lowered to 60 kt, on the faster side of the overland weakening
guidance due to the very high terrain. Agatha should continue to
quickly weaken overnight due to further interactions with the
mountains of Mexico, and it is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday
afternoon near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

The storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt. The global models
continue to suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a
broad low pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is
some potential for the development of a new tropical cyclone in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico later this
week.

Although Agatha is weakening, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides from heavy rains are still possible through Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning
area through Tuesday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 16.2N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/1200Z 16.9N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#385 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 5:09 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO AGATHA'S HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NNW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#386 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue May 31, 2022 6:53 am

It’s a depression now.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Depression

#387 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 7:06 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
700 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#388 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 9:52 am

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Agatha Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...REMNANTS OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 94.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#389 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2022 10:22 am

It has been almost 24 hours since the last tweet (below) and I am beginning to worry, but hopefully communications are out in the area.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1531335309408935936


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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#390 Postby Stormybajan » Tue May 31, 2022 10:34 am

cycloneye wrote:It has been almost 24 hours since the last tweet (below) and I am beginning to worry, but hopefully communications are out in the area.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1531335309408935936

Hes fine, as another user stated this is normal for him while chasing. I am sure he will pop back up as soon communications are back up and running. :wink:
 https://twitter.com/OnionsPls/status/1531468840982523905


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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#391 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue May 31, 2022 11:00 am

Out of the remains of Agatha 2 cyclonic systems have spawned.

GOES 16 Red Band - https://col.st/sCfDK

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#392 Postby AJC3 » Tue May 31, 2022 12:41 pm

ChrisH-UK wrote:Out of the remains of Agatha 2 cyclonic systems have spawned.

GOES 16 Red Band - https://col.st/sCfDK

https://imgur.com/Hf6ljpg


Minor correction...the second mid level vortex to the east of Agatha's remnant MLC developed independently within the CAG. There was a large convective band extending east from the NE Yucatan for a solid day or two before Agatha made landfall.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#393 Postby toad strangler » Tue May 31, 2022 1:07 pm

Morgerman is back, like I said, after cutting up some trees and helping clear a road. No babies in his arms this time though. He likes to at least help out in the local area that gets slammed before he jumps ship. His video is awesome for sure!


 http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1531694322881638403



 http://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1531697013674242048


Last edited by toad strangler on Tue May 31, 2022 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#394 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 31, 2022 1:41 pm

Just give me the observations lol.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#395 Postby Astromanía » Tue May 31, 2022 2:26 pm

Nasty landfall and the worst thing there is already confirmed deaths due to this storm, wonder if it's going to be upgraded a bit coz that video josh morgerman share looks way worse than Olaf and Rick from last year that make landfall at the same intensity or maybe that's just me, anyway I didn't expect an hurricane landfall that early in the year for EPAC and with that intensity, it's going to be remembered for sure
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#396 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 31, 2022 3:05 pm

This is going to be remembered because outside of Pauline and Carlotta Oaxaca does not have much of a hurricane history at least when it comes to stronger systems.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#397 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 31, 2022 4:05 pm

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#398 Postby Teban54 » Tue May 31, 2022 4:28 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:This is going to be remembered because outside of Pauline and Carlotta Oaxaca does not have much of a hurricane history at least when it comes to stronger systems.

Any chance of the name Agatha getting retired? I know Mexico doesn't request retirements often, but...
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#399 Postby TheBigO » Tue May 31, 2022 4:37 pm

Are there any models for this system into the gulf yet?
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

#400 Postby zeehag » Tue May 31, 2022 4:53 pm

i have heard of many power outages and much destruction in cane zone.. anyone have confirmation on that issue yet? i know towers and lights and water willbe out for days maybe 2 weeks, but someone somewhere must have info. unfortunately many boaters are still in area. need to know what occurred with them, also
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