ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#481 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:30 am

wxman57 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:Recon found 72kt flight-level winds :eek: (away from the center, but still)


Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC :D

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface


Almost certainly not. It's hard for a disturbance or tropical wave to produce such a strong pressure gradient such that sustained 1-min winds reach 75 mph. Typically, tropical waves can produce strong wind gusts, perhaps to 60-70 mph for heavier squalls, but sustained winds on the north side of westward moving waves are usually 30-35 mph.

Only way I could see a PTC with hurricane force winds would be with a nontropical cyclone that was forecast to become a tropical system (or subtropical) and it had hurricane force winds AND was impacting land. This would be likely only around the Azores IMHO.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#482 Postby Kazmit » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:52 am

The flight level winds recon is finding are impressive. If it wasn't for the shear, we would likely be looking at a hurricane right now. A sign of what's to come.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#483 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 05, 2022 10:16 am

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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#484 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jun 05, 2022 10:23 am

IIRC, high flight level winds are a sign of baroclinic forcing. They aren't mixing to the surface very well.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#485 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:24 am

Alex is looking quite non-tropical at present. Subtropical on the fast track to ET.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#486 Postby FireRat » Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:51 am

wxman57 wrote:Alex is looking quite non-tropical at present. Subtropical on the fast track to ET.


Alex sure looks like ET alright!
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#487 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:53 am

Recon data with the updated SFMR readings appear to support 55-60 kt.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#488 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:07 pm

Will Alex clinch hurricane status once again?
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#489 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:11 pm

LOL, I was leaving this thing for dead not long ago, now recon is finding 57kt SMFRs. This thing is all around wack.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#490 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:14 pm

Big storm

Image
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#491 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:18 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Big storm

https://i.imgur.com/2aWg0ha.jpg

Baroclinic forcing is likely expanding the size of the storm. Alex is probably near or at peak intensity. Soon baroclinic forcing will spread out the storm too much and the system will be extra tropical.
Baroclinic forcing will shear away the convection and replace it with dry air soon.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#492 Postby Craters » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:36 pm

...And for those of you who might be thinking that this season is starting unusually early, today is the 21st anniversary of the first pass of Tropical Storm Allison through Houston and SE Texas. It was like PTC1 in the sense that I remember hardly any wind, because the 30+ inches of rain in spots tended to get more attention. :eek: Then it came back a few days later to finish the job.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#493 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:41 pm

Craters wrote:...And for those of you who might be thinking that this season is starting unusually early, today is the 21st anniversary of the first pass of Tropical Storm Allison through Houston and SE Texas. It was like PTC1 in the sense that I remember hardly any wind, because the 30+ inches of rain in spots tended to get more attention. :eek: Then it came back a few days later to finish the job.

One of just two Atlantic storms to be retired without ever reaching hurricane status. Don't think that's going to happen with Alex, but it still dumped a good 10 inches of rain in spots
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#494 Postby us89 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:15 pm

I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a hurricane watch for Bermuda in addition to the TS warning.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#495 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:32 pm

us89 wrote:I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a hurricane watch for Bermuda in addition to the TS warning.

Alex won’t become a hurricane. Sure there is a possibility for hurricane-force gusts in Bermuda, but Alex’s hybrid structure means it will never become a hurricane before it starts weakening again in the next 12 hours.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#496 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:44 pm

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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#497 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:53 pm

18z Best Track remains at 55kt.

AL, 01, 2022060518, , BEST, 0, 309N, 725W, 55, 991, TS
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#498 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:05 pm

aspen wrote:
us89 wrote:I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a hurricane watch for Bermuda in addition to the TS warning.

Alex won’t become a hurricane. Sure there is a possibility for hurricane-force gusts in Bermuda, but Alex’s hybrid structure means it will never become a hurricane before it starts weakening again in the next 12 hours.

Don’t be so sure. There is already argument for 70 mph. It wouldn’t be too hard to reach minimal hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#499 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:20 pm

aspen wrote:
us89 wrote:I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a hurricane watch for Bermuda in addition to the TS warning.

Alex won’t become a hurricane. Sure there is a possibility for hurricane-force gusts in Bermuda, but Alex’s hybrid structure means it will never become a hurricane before it starts weakening again in the next 12 hours.


A well-defined eyewall, eye, and even central dense overcast are not requirements to become a hurricane. Alex could have an exposed LLC but, as long as it's generating 65 knot winds, it would have to be considered a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#500 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:33 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
aspen wrote:
us89 wrote:I’m kind of surprised there isn’t a hurricane watch for Bermuda in addition to the TS warning.

Alex won’t become a hurricane. Sure there is a possibility for hurricane-force gusts in Bermuda, but Alex’s hybrid structure means it will never become a hurricane before it starts weakening again in the next 12 hours.


A well-defined eyewall, eye, and even central dense overcast are not requirements to become a hurricane. Alex could have an exposed LLC but, as long as it's generating 65 knot winds, it would have to be considered a hurricane.

I mean that its hybrid style means sustained hurricane force winds likely won’t reach the surface and it’ll probably turn post-tropical before they do.
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