ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Blown Away. closer to your position.

AL, 91, 2022060200, , BEST, 0, 196N, 868W, 30, 1004, DB

[jlauderdal]

Looking forward to NHC 8pm update to see if the LLC position is farther offshore near 20N/86W. I’m not seeing any sign of the LLC near the 18z position on the coast.

Some keep talking about S and E of FL as if’s a final call yet the cherry colored genesis area depicted by the NHC keeps moving that southern boundary North. lol love S2K

Check the posters location when possible especially when a hurricane is on approach.

[boca]

Looking forward to NHC 8pm update to see if the LLC position is farther offshore near 20N/86W. I’m not seeing any sign of the LLC near the 18z position on the coast.

Some keep talking about S and E of FL as if’s a final call yet the cherry colored genesis area depicted by the NHC keeps moving that southern boundary North. lol love S2K

Check the posters location when possible especially when a hurricane is on approach.

Very true I’m in Coconut Creek and I think most of the weather will be shooting SE of us thru the straits and Central and Southern Bahamas, just a feeling.I’ll wake up tomorrow and the scenario will be different I’m sure.

[skyline385]

Looking forward to NHC 8pm update to see if the LLC position is farther offshore near 20N/86W. I’m not seeing any sign of the LLC near the 18z position on the coast.

Some keep talking about S and E of FL as if’s a final call yet the cherry colored genesis area depicted by the NHC keeps moving that southern boundary North. lol love S2K

Check the posters location when possible especially when a hurricane is on approach.

I think most people dont mind getting hit by this, its just a sheared system bringing in rain. I would be very surprised if we get any sustained TS winds inland.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking forward to NHC 8pm update to see if the LLC position is farther offshore near 20N/86W. I’m not seeing any sign of the LLC near the 18z position on the coast.

Some keep talking about S and E of FL as if’s a final call yet the cherry colored genesis area depicted by the NHC keeps moving that southern boundary North. lol love S2K

I wonder if it could be a messy TS where the center crosses the peninsula but the weather remains over the straits

[Cat5James]

Rain outlook shows widespread 7+ inches of rain anywhere south of Lake Okeechobee. I highly doubt all the weather passes south of the peninsula.

[DestinHurricane]

My thoughts is a heavily east weighted and sheared system moving somewhere over south Florida. SFL will get most of the rain, central Florida might now see much if its all weighted towards the east. I doubt TS storm force winds will be recorded at a land station in Florida.

[psyclone]

Rain outlook shows widespread 7+ inches of rain anywhere south of Lake Okeechobee. I highly doubt all the weather passes south of the peninsula.

That's the latest output but there's a very sharp cutoff to the north...so if the system shifts southward so will the sharp cutoff. There's been a consistent signal for stout rain totals near and south of the lake but much lower amounts have always been lurking nearby...so as is often the case...riding the line. it could shift either way

[ObsessedMiami]

Season has just started and I can count several SFL “shield” posts already. Sheesh

[skyline385]

Decent OHC but that shear is killing it

[Blown Away]

Looking forward to NHC 8pm update to see if the LLC position is farther offshore near 20N/86W. I’m not seeing any sign of the LLC near the 18z position on the coast.

Some keep talking about S and E of FL as if’s a final call yet the cherry colored genesis area depicted by the NHC keeps moving that southern boundary North. lol love S2K

I wonder if it could be a messy TS where the center crosses the peninsula but the weather remains over the straits

Yeah models show a lopsided 91L with most of the heavy convection S of the LLC. FL is in close range for modeling and Euro is N of Lake O crossing FL so a Fl Peninsula TD/TS looking likely. Still no clear LLC, so until there is a defined LLC there could be larger than normal errors even in short range. JMHO

[eastcoastFL]

Did the forecast become slower? I noticed the red streak that previously went across all of south Florida now only reaches the west coast.

[skyline385]

Did the forecast become slower? I noticed the red streak that previously went across all of south Florida now only reaches the west coast.

It does look like they pulled the tomato back so yea slower now

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/ ... 2206012350
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/ ... 2206011738
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/ ... 2206011138

[Cat5James]

00Z GFS shows 10+ inches of rain for Broward/Palm Beach County. If this verifies there is going to be severe flash flooding on already saturated ground.

[FireRat]

Crazy how the season just began and we have a system to watch already, on June 1 too! Best of luck to those of you in Florida and areas nearby, may this storm just bring beneficial rains.

[Sciencerocks]

[Brent]

Still 80/80 but the NHC mentioned watches could be required today... Sounds like a PTC at least could happen

Interests
in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for some of these areas later today.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1532236367123517440

[Sciencerocks]

Reminds me a little of Alberto 2006 when it was still in the Caribbean.



Also Colin 2016

[skyline385]

2 AM outlook adds TS likelihood to the discussion

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is
likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it
moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests
in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern
Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.