ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#461 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:14 pm

KirbyDude25 wrote:Recon found 72kt flight-level winds :eek: (away from the center, but still)


Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC :D

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#462 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:40 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:Recon found 72kt flight-level winds :eek: (away from the center, but still)


Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC :D

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface



A PTC with a well defined LLC producing hurricane force sustain winds. :flag:
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#463 Postby beoumont » Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:58 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:Recon found 72kt flight-level winds :eek: (away from the center, but still)


Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC :D

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface


I recall a couple of past recon. reports into very sharp easterly waves that had wind gusts of 75+ mph. One of those was a wave at longitude 65 west that
eventually became Hurricane Camille, 1969.

No telling if a similar occurrence would be designated a PTC by today's NHC.
Last edited by beoumont on Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#464 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:59 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#465 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:14 am

Looks like recon found a pretty convincing center. We might have Alex at the 6Z update (at what intensity, I'm not sure, given the disparity in flight-level and surface winds)
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#466 Postby zzh » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:54 am

Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#467 Postby Teban54 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:55 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050553
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...DISTURBANCE FINALLY BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

"Finally"
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#468 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:56 am

...DISTURBANCE FINALLY BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...

They're just as exasperated as we are with this storm. 995mb/45kt for this advisory, let's see what they say in the 5 AM Eastern discussion
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#469 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:57 am

We finally got Alex! Thought it was going to be upgraded any moment now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#470 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:58 am

galaxy401 wrote:We finally got Alex! Thought it was going to be upgraded any moment now.

It finally managed to keep a (kind of) well-defined center. The look it has reminds me a bit of Odette, though this one's a lot closer to land
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#471 Postby ThomasW » Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:28 am

KirbyDude25 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:We finally got Alex! Thought it was going to be upgraded any moment now.

It finally managed to keep a (kind of) well-defined center. The look it has reminds me a bit of Odette, though this one's a lot closer to land

Seems to be a little better defined than Odette. That storm had a surface trough draped over the circulation when it was classified (check 18z surface analysis from that day for reference), then almost immediately opened up into a trough as shown by later ASCAT data. This at least possesses a tight and well-defined LLC, but the convective organization is subpar to say the least. Borderline classification but with the strength of the system I'd lean towards it being a TC.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#472 Postby FireRat » Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:51 am

Man I was starting to think this would never become Alex :lol:

The storm earned its name after a hard fought battle, and made 'Alex' yet again another memorable system for its quirk... First week of Hurricane Season storm that flooded the heck out of Miami!
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#473 Postby al78 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 5:49 am

hipshot wrote:All I can say is WOW. You'd think a place like Miami would be able to handle 10" but I guess not if the surrounding area was already saturated. That
looks more like the Texas coast after a hurricane!


10 inches is a lot of rain, so no surprise it will cause significant flooding, especially in an urban area where the water runs off the hard surfaces. This was the effect of 15.9 inches falling on one part of the UK Lake District over two days in December 2015:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQXKaL2iYQo&t=109s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vop2u4KsbTM

This was a 48 hour UK rainfall record.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#474 Postby 115MphAgatha » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:11 am

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0857.shtml

And Alex makes a fashionably late entrance to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#475 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:13 am

Alex is ahead of the normal average of the first storm formation.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1533345079586263040


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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#476 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 05, 2022 7:30 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
KirbyDude25 wrote:Recon found 72kt flight-level winds :eek: (away from the center, but still)


Gotta admit, it's one very powerful PTC :D

This kind of got me wondering, but I wonder if it's practically possible for a PTC to have 75 mph 1-min sustained winds on the surface


Almost certainly not. It's hard for a disturbance or tropical wave to produce such a strong pressure gradient such that sustained 1-min winds reach 75 mph. Typically, tropical waves can produce strong wind gusts, perhaps to 60-70 mph for heavier squalls, but sustained winds on the north side of westward moving waves are usually 30-35 mph.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#477 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 7:51 am

Tropical Storm Alex Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
845 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ALEX IS STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the
maximum sustained winds in Alex have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h)
and that the central pressure is near 993 mb.

SUMMARY OF 845 AM EDT...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.39 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#478 Postby Kazmit » Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:56 am

Always interesting to watch a PTC become a 60mph TS overnight... especially when it's bearing down on your island.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#479 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:19 am

Well, it's nice to have a hurricane season that starts in June for a change.
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Re: ATL: ALEX - Tropical Storm

#480 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:30 am

Baroclinic forcing is in full effect. The recon plane found flight-level winds of up to 85 kt, but they aren’t translating to the surface well at all; SFMR supports 50-55 kt. Perhaps there’s a chance Alex could hit 60 kt before it starts losing its (vaguely) tropical characteristics.
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