ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

New Bern, NC is very far from TS Alex but the waves are high there and I am sure in many places of the east coast.

 https://twitter.com/jmorgan_wx/status/1533545209245605894

[Hammy]

Alex won’t become a hurricane. Sure there is a possibility for hurricane-force gusts in Bermuda, but Alex’s hybrid structure means it will never become a hurricane before it starts weakening again in the next 12 hours.

A well-defined eyewall, eye, and even central dense overcast are not requirements to become a hurricane. Alex could have an exposed LLC but, as long as it's generating 65 knot winds, it would have to be considered a hurricane.

I mean that its hybrid style means sustained hurricane force winds likely won’t reach the surface and it’ll probably turn post-tropical before they do.

Dennis in 1981 and Gabrielle in 2001 (among a few other examples I can't readily recall) had as bad or worse satellite appearance and reached hurricane intensity. There's still a good pressure gradient to the southeast so given the forward speed it's not out of the question.

[aspen]

A well-defined eyewall, eye, and even central dense overcast are not requirements to become a hurricane. Alex could have an exposed LLC but, as long as it's generating 65 knot winds, it would have to be considered a hurricane.

I mean that its hybrid style means sustained hurricane force winds likely won’t reach the surface and it’ll probably turn post-tropical before they do.

Dennis in 1981 and Gabrielle in 2001 (among a few other examples I can't readily recall) had as bad or worse satellite appearance and reached hurricane intensity. There's still a good pressure gradient to the southeast so given the forward speed it's not out of the question.

Well if Alex has made a run for the Ugliest Hurricane Award, then we’ll know soon because recon is almost there.

[KirbyDude25]

Honestly, this thing might be extratropical already, or at least close. We'll see about the core once recon gets there, but there is a line of clouds extending toward Cuba. It would be funny if it managed to become a hurricane before that transition's complete, though.

[aspen]

Pressure down to 984 mbar, with 55 kt SFMR in the SW quadrant and likely higher winds in the NE quad. If this is still tropical (or tropical enough), then it might be a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 60kts.

AL, 01, 2022060600, , BEST, 0, 321N, 701W, 60, 986, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[KirbyDude25]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7136/FmlYEg.gif

We might have an extratropical storm now. ADT's calling it that, though Best Track still says it's a TS

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak has it as extratropical.

A. 01L (ALEX)

B. 05/2331Z

C. 32.0N

D. 70.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. EXTRATROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL. DEEP
CONVECTION IS WANING AND LARGELY REMOVED FM LLCC. FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
BECMG APPARENT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[toad strangler]

pre Alex center passage over my backyard in Port St. Lucie Saturday 6/4

[aspen]

SSD dvorak has it as extratropical.

A. 01L (ALEX)

B. 05/2331Z

C. 32.0N

D. 70.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. EXTRATROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL. DEEP
CONVECTION IS WANING AND LARGELY REMOVED FM LLCC. FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
BECMG APPARENT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

Does the center drop support an extratropical classification, or is it good enough for one last advisory?

[InfernoFlameCat]

I say this goes hurricane force low next advisory

[KirbyDude25]

I say this goes hurricane force low next advisory

In that case, would it still be referred to post-dissipation as TS Alex? My assumption is that it would still only be called a TS if it doesn't reach hurricane strength before going extratropical, and would only be called "Hurricane Alex" if it becomes tropical again while maintaining hurricane-force winds.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I say this goes hurricane force low next advisory

In that case, would it still be referred to post-dissipation as TS Alex? My assumption is that it would still only be called a TS if it doesn't reach hurricane strength before going extratropical, and would only be called "Hurricane Alex" if it becomes tropical again while maintaining hurricane-force winds.

yes, it would be still classified as Ts Alex. Only if it reached hurricane status while still a tropical or subtropical cyclone then it would be called hurricane Alex in referendum to it. I think its extatropical at this point though and will remain Ts Alex in history.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I mean that its hybrid style means sustained hurricane force winds likely won’t reach the surface and it’ll probably turn post-tropical before they do.

Dennis in 1981 and Gabrielle in 2001 (among a few other examples I can't readily recall) had as bad or worse satellite appearance and reached hurricane intensity. There's still a good pressure gradient to the southeast so given the forward speed it's not out of the question.

Well if Alex has made a run for the Ugliest Hurricane Award, then we’ll know soon because recon is almost there.

Not possible. Barry has a firm grip on that one.

[cycloneye]

Interesting data from bouy.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1533628540666515456

[wxman57]

Looks like an ET storm, to me. Looks like a cold front extending SW from the center, too.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 05 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ALEX A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA LATER
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 69.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[cycloneye]

All the questions about the extratropical factor are answered in the discussion.

The satellite presentation of Alex has evolved from a more classic
sheared tropical cyclone this morning to that of an extratropical
transitioning cyclone. There are still some fragments of convection
near the center, but most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is
well removed from the center in a band around the eastern portion of
the circulation. This change in structure is due to an approaching
mid- to upper-level trough and associated dry air that has become
entrained into the circulation. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
observations and data from NOAA buoy 41048 indicate that Alex is
slightly stronger. Reports from a center drop from the aircraft
showed that the pressure had fallen to around 984 mb, and the buoy
reported a peak one-minute wind of 52 kt at 4 meters. Based on
these data the initial intensity has been set at 60 kt. However,
the cyclone may already be beginning to fill as the latest
reconnaissance aircraft pass through the center reported that the
pressure had risen 4 mb.