ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

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MarioProtVI
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#441 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:02 pm

This thing is seriously struggling. Keeps going through the “oh is this the actual center” only to see its a mesovort around a broad and very ill-defined center. Thinking it never gets a name at this point. Alex will have to wait until later I guess (July or so)
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#442 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:12 pm

I would certainly be very intrigued to see if this PTC fails to get a name, from my understanding this only happened once in the Atlantic before (in 2017)? Also would be quite interesting considering its 90/90 chances of development, meaning it somehow ended up going for that 10% lol
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#443 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:36 pm

So what does NHC do with the PTC designation once its done crossing land and still isnt a TS or a STS :D

Does it drop back to a 90%/90% invest?
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#444 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:44 pm

skyline385 wrote:So what does NHC do with the PTC designation once its done crossing land and still isnt a TS or a STS :D

Does it drop back to a 90%/90% invest?

Bermuda is under a watch so no it still remains a PTC.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#445 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:20 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
skyline385 wrote:So what does NHC do with the PTC designation once its done crossing land and still isnt a TS or a STS :D

Does it drop back to a 90%/90% invest?

Bermuda is under a watch so no it still remains a PTC.


You are right, they added Bermuda under TS watch at the 11AM advisory.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#446 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:28 pm

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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#447 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:38 pm

When a storm has flooded your streets but you need to take the dog out :lol:

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1533171490862112768


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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#448 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:53 pm

PTC1 is getting better organised as we speak, I think we will have a Tropical Storm very soon
Maybe the upcoming recon data will be enough to classify later tonight.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#449 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:34 pm

Still a 90% chance to develop. I still think we'll see Alex from this. Just needs a more defined-ish center.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#450 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:47 pm

Feeder band, lol causing issues in broward county this evening
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#451 Postby Steve » Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:08 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:PTC1 is getting better organised as we speak, I think we will have a Tropical Storm very soon
Maybe the upcoming recon data will be enough to classify later tonight.


Yeah. Some blowup closer to the center. I’ve been more looking at the effects than the storm itself, but I think earlier advisories had it to TS by later tomorrow where now NHC is saying possibly 6-12 hours. It’s also coming up on 29/30N which could indicate that this season could again feature at least some storms getting stronger into the subtropics which obviously isn’t good news if you live on the Gulf or SE Coasts.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#452 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:33 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Multiple videos on social media of stranded cars and flooded streets in downtown Miami, with still more heavy rain on the way.

This is what the storm was always going to be about. The "slop" so heavily discounted by posters on this forum has real world impacts.

https://twitter.com/MFR_PIO/status/1532977245656174593?t=jyGX6PXoDojynBapUPVG2Q&s=19


The rain was very very real and flooding is never something to take lightly. It can cause significant delays, property damage, injuries and even deaths. So, was this a significant "weather" event for parts of South Florida? Yes it was. Well, In the context of an organized tropical cyclone however referring PTC1 slop.... well that would just be an insult to slop. It was akin to hamburger meat without the binding ingrediants of crushed crackers, eggs, etc. It was a CAG without any swag. It was a shear pushover for the GOM upper level winds - 2nd team.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#453 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 04, 2022 7:11 pm

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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#454 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 04, 2022 8:22 pm

Well, there's your well defined LLC!
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#455 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:00 pm

CoCoRaHS precipitation map, the rain estimates were on point.

Image
Last edited by skyline385 on Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#456 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:10 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Well, there's your well defined LLC!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/558/e76h70.png


Would that be enough to warrant a TC though? As far as I can tell, we've had storms like Colin 2016 happen before..so..
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#457 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:35 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Well, there's your well defined LLC!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/558/e76h70.png


Or maybe a new one closer to convection?

Image
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#458 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:59 pm

Plane found winds at flight level in the 60's range.

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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#459 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:09 pm

Recon found 72kt flight-level winds :eek: (away from the center, but still)
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#460 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:12 pm

Still just looks like a strong non-tropical low. The plane had found two separate “LLCs” within the much broader circulation.
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