ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:01 am

AL, 91, 2022060112, , BEST, 0, 187N, 874W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752022 to al912022,


Topic that was at Talking Tropics forum for this area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122666

Is important to save the images animated or not that are posted to have a good archive record, thank you.



https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:06 am

850mb vorticity increasing steadily just east of Yucatan.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby Jelmergraaff » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:13 am

tropicwatch wrote:850mb vorticity increasing steadily just east of Yucatan.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF


Can I ask on which data this is based? Is it derived/calculated from certain variables or just an estimation?
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:16 am

tropicwatch wrote:850mb vorticity increasing steadily just east of Yucatan.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

If this one consolidates over the weaker BOC one then it is going to be the EURO coming out on top
Last edited by skyline385 on Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:18 am

91L Floater from Tropical Tidbits.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:22 am

AL, 91, 2022060112, , BEST, 0, 187N, 874W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752022 to al912022,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:23 am

Damn that convection isn't letting up, still firing like crazy

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:28 am

Jelmergraaff wrote:
tropicwatch wrote:850mb vorticity increasing steadily just east of Yucatan.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF


Can I ask on which data this is based? Is it derived/calculated from certain variables or just an estimation?


From my understanding from the site, it is satellite derived.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:31 am

skyline385 wrote:Damn that convection isn't letting up, still firing like crazy

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/e541a237732efd8478e388688e50fb18.gif


lower vorticity quickly strengthening. Surface pressures falling. Very close now



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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:32 am

A lot of convection with some signs of organization.

Should easily become TD #1 sometime in the next 48-72 hours. My guess is a 40 knot peak.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:34 am

We are already at a point where plain sfc obs very clearly depicts the low.

Image

Yes, not yet at TD criteria but advisories should begin tonight or tomorrow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:37 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Damn that convection isn't letting up, still firing like crazy

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220601/e541a237732efd8478e388688e50fb18.gif


lower vorticity quickly strengthening. Surface pressures falling. Very close now

https://imgur.com/GUl6d6Q

https://i.imgur.com/V7BUAOY.png


The local pressure falls are higher than near the Yucatan currently. Nothing to exciting yet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby Nuno » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:41 am

I think the models have the right general idea, just until we have a solid LLC developed it will be difficult to narrow it down. It's going to be sloppy and rainy regardless throughout the peninsula.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:55 am

I think the actual low pressure may end up having little significant weather near it and all the heavy convection shunted to its east. I look for a broad sloppy low meandering slowly NE from the NE tip of the Yuc. There will likely be tiny vortices rotating around the broad low resulting in heated debates on this forum as to... "I see a new LLC developing here and its going to dramatically change the model track!" . :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby Jr0d » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:07 am

Figures. I am flying out of Orlando Saturday morning. Going to close, hopefully the more severe weather will stay south and west for my flight..

That said delays because of minimum tropical storms are rare.

Good that this is tagged so the hurricane models will be running.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:07 am

I still am getting a 2013 ANDREAish vibe though further south. Date timing will be nearly identical. To me, this set up is very much a page from early June textbook climo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:13 am

I still think that the EC is too far north. The place to watch is the NW Caribbean, not the eastern BoC. Low tracks across the southern FL Peninsula on Saturday, with all squalls well to the east of the center. Recon will likely find 35-40 kt winds in a small area of squalls well east of the center, and the NHC will call it Alex on Friday. Southern Florida is in somewhat of a drought, so the rain may be welcomed. I don't think there will be any land observations of TS sustained wind, just gusts in passing squalls.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:41 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:42 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby boca » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:54 am

This is going to miss Florida to the south just my opinion.Due to the blocking high and if the low goes over us all the weather will be in the Bahamas.
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