ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

What used to be called RGB and now called natural color, for some reason, is a great visible tool as it colors mid levels differently from low levels. In this case you can see the big convection is a dying MLC being blown away from the LLC closer to the coast. Neither is very well defined at the moment.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-natcolor-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

closer view

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-natcolor-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

even closer

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Cozumel-natcolor-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1532106425299881989

[jlauderdal]

Looks to me with the strong shear that all the weather will head to the Bahamas and we will be sitting pretty here in Florida

How does it get to the Bahamas without passing through Florida?

[AutoPenalti]

Looks to me with the strong shear that all the weather will head to the Bahamas and we will be sitting pretty here in Florida

How does it get to the Bahamas without passing through Florida?

Florida shield ofcourse

[boca]

Looks to me with the strong shear that all the weather will head to the Bahamas and we will be sitting pretty here in Florida

How does it get to the Bahamas without passing through Florida?[/quote

It goes thru the Florida Straits below us and most if at all the bad weather on the right side of the storm. In this case SE of us.

[Blown Away]

LLC is inland (in the Yucatan), very elongated right now.

It see a very broad exposed LLC @20.3N/86.4W meandering. The heavy convection is limited to the SE of this area.

[jlauderdal]

Looks to me with the strong shear that all the weather will head to the Bahamas and we will be sitting pretty here in Florida

How does it get to the Bahamas without passing through Florida?

It goes thru the Florida Straits below us

Its possible but seems very unlikely at this point but we will know in a couple of days.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1532112004676206594

[psyclone]

I'd expect a PTC designation soon based on the proximity to wrn Cuba.

[Blown Away]

Convection building on the east side of what appears to be a developing LLC near 20N/86W.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[cane5]

There is a shield for us because of the mountainous terrain around Haiti and the Dominican but also SFLA when it comes to storms off Africa that seem to be shielded often by High Pressure ridges that have kept storms moving more North as weaknesses in that ridge form just before they get to the coast.What is often referred as Hurricane Alley.

[cycloneye]

A reminder to the members that is important to save the images animated or not that are posted to have a good archive record of this system when is moved to the 2022 archives forum, thank you.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Looking forward to NHC 8pm update to see if the LLC position is farther offshore near 20N/86W. I’m not seeing any sign of the LLC near the 18z position on the coast.

[cycloneye]

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan
Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual development is
forecast and this system is likely to become a tropical depression
while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so,
spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys
on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western
Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[fci]

How does it get to the Bahamas without passing through Florida?

It goes thru the Florida Straits below us

Its possible but seems very unlikely at this point but we will know in a couple of days.

I'm going with the solution that the effects won't be huge on South Florida with it passing south of the peninsula and the bulk of the heavy stuff east and southeast of the center.

[ElectricStorm]

Should see Alex out of this. Probably won't do a whole lot though but could be a heavy rain threat. Hopefully everyone is prepared for the season ahead. Good luck everyone!

[cane5]

Part of being a Tropically obsessed individual is you have so many scenarios that can play out and you get to anticipate and predict what could happen under any number of scenarios. I have found that there are a short list of determinable factors that ultimately lead to the final result.

But as I’ve said before most of us are privileged to be a part of this forum because there are truly serious storm followers here and are easy to pick out and instead of speculating on gut feelings learn from the pros and realize you are uniquely informed going forward and it could lead to a do or die decision for you and your family. And also you are way ahead of the general public who have no clue by their choice of course.

[toad strangler]

Looking forward to NHC 8pm update to see if the LLC position is farther offshore near 20N/86W. I’m not seeing any sign of the LLC near the 18z position on the coast.

Some keep talking about S and E of FL as if’s a final call yet the cherry colored genesis area depicted by the NHC keeps moving that southern boundary North. lol love S2K

[ouragans]

Looking forward to NHC 8pm update to see if the LLC position is farther offshore near 20N/86W. I’m not seeing any sign of the LLC near the 18z position on the coast.

Not far

Invest 91L
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 02, 2022:

Location: 19.6°N 86.8°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm