ATL: ALEX - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[NDG]

[SFLcane]

06z Euro...

[cycloneye]

First run for 91L by GEFS. Looks like a weak TS in these ensembles when it moves thru South Florida.

[skyline385]

06Z EURO still not budging

[Blown Away]

91L spends the next 48-72 hours moving on or near Yucatán. If the low can stay offshore then possibly a modest TS for Florida.

[NDG]

91L spends the next 48-72 hours moving on or near Yucatán. If the low can stay offshore then possibly a modest TS for Florida.

I think you meant to say the next 24-48 hours, by 72 hours the models have it approaching or over FL.

[SFLcane]

I will be interesting what the HWRF does with 91L.

[jlauderdal]

I will be interesting what the HWRF does with 91L.

You have been around awhile, any guesses as to what the HWRF does with it

[SFLcane]

I will be interesting what the HWRF does with 91L.

You have been around awhile, any guesses as to what the HWRF does with it

Hmm, hurricanes models well hwrf could go with a Cat 1 into South Florida. Honestly it will be really interesting to see who is right Euro/Gfs as that will have a big say in the weather over the state. Euro has been extremely consistent i will say that.

[SFLcane]

Really GFS?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GFS actually initialized with a closed low this time around and as a result it has a much more organized system approaching Florida. Remnants of Agatha seem to be less of a player this time around which helps in making this a much more consolidated entity.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS actually initialized with a closed low this time around and as a result it has a much more organized system approaching Florida. Remnants of Agatha seem to be less of a player this time around.
https://i.ibb.co/DkSXt3n/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh60-trend.gif

That's quite the change.

[skyline385]

GFS actually initialized with a closed low this time around and as a result it has a much more organized system approaching Florida. Remnants of Agatha seem to be less of a player this time around.

Same for ICON, was just going to post it. It also shows a more compact circulation.

[hurricane2025]

Nice little rain maker

[skyline385]

Its also going to run over a warm loop current at 28-28.5C right now. If it closes the circulation then there is some potential for it.

[SFLcane]

[ChrisH-UK]

The GFS has got it stronger now on landfall in the 12z run from the 06z run.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1532031473351532544

[aspen]

Every so often, there’s a model run that has 91L/Alex become baroclinically enhanced once east of the US and become a stronger TS or even a Cat 1 hurricane before going out to sea. The GFS used to show such scenarios (even New England landfalls) back when 91L was still a forming Agatha. Now it’s much weaker, but the 12z ICON made it a hurricane in the subtropics.