ATL: ALEX - Models

[skyline385]

0Z GFS is a sheared mess

[Cat5James]

0Z GFS is a sheared mess

https://i.imgur.com/JOxraUE.png

Stronger and heavier rainfall for S FL then previous run.

[skyline385]

06Z Guidance, surprisingly there seems to be really good agreement now between most models for track guidance (except HMON who decided to go on a field trip)

[skyline385]

EURO still spreads precipitation more evenly compared to GFS which dumps most of it on SFL

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

[kevin]

12z GFS, 998/996 mbar SFL landfall.

[skyline385]

12z GFS, 998/996 mbar SFL landfall.

Biggest change seems to be the moisture getting pushed up north on this run

[Spacecoast]

NWS NBM (National Blend of Models)
Total Acc. Precip:.

[Jelmergraaff]

A significant amount of GEFS members are showing quite some depening of the TC once it's over the Atlantic Ocean. I would say about half of the ensemble shows a central pressure of 990 mb or lower.

[kunosoura]

A significant amount of GEFS members are showing quite some depening of the TC once it's over the Atlantic Ocean. I would say about half of the ensemble shows a central pressure of 990 mb or lower.

Yeah, that 06Z to 12Z update shows a number of members becoming substantially deeper. Will be interesting to see if a trend emerges.

[chris_fit]

12z Euro seems to have bumped up the latitude a little bit. Looks like Landfall somewhere in Sarasota County instead of Port Charlotte/Naples area.

[Blown Away]

A significant amount of GEFS members are showing quite some depening of the TC once it's over the Atlantic Ocean. I would say about half of the ensemble shows a central pressure of 990 mb or lower.

Yeah, that 06Z to 12Z update shows a number of members becoming substantially deeper. Will be interesting to see if a trend emerges.

Maybe if the LLC reforms under the deep convection it might allow 91L to deepen faster?

[tolakram]

A significant amount of GEFS members are showing quite some depening of the TC once it's over the Atlantic Ocean. I would say about half of the ensemble shows a central pressure of 990 mb or lower.

Edit: Can someone explain why the image doesn't upload?

https://imgur.com/a/zNPhq4v

That's not an image link.



In the above screenshot you want to use the top link with imgur tags or the direct link with IMG tags.

Unfortunately I used a GIF as an example. In the case of animated GIFS ONLY you want to use original GIF link with the IMG tags to show the animation if available, otherwise you have to use the top link with the imgur tags to show animated GIFS.

[aspen]

Quite a significant shift in the long-term evolution of 91L/Alex from this most recent batch of model runs. Occasionally some model run has kept Alex alive - and even slightly strengthened it - after crossing Florida, but now most models are showing such a scenario. I'm not quite sure how many keep Alex as a tropical system or just turn it into a non-tropical low.



The GFS, ECWMF, and HWRF are the most aggressive models for post-Florida intensity.




The ICON keeps Alex alive for a bit before it gets strung out in the open Atlantic.


The CMC make short work of Alex and rips into a string of vorticity pretty quickly. As of now, it's a significant outlier.

[Jelmergraaff]

Here's a loop with the probabilities of >56 mph wind gusts from Friday to Thursday, according to the EPS (European Model Ensemble). Seems like a good chance of an intensifing cyclone after it has passed Florida. Chances of 56 mph wind gusts or above for 1 specific location are up to about 50%. Chance for hurricane force wind gusts are rather small. So seems like it'll get the name Alex, but shouldn't be too strong (most likely a weak- to moderate TS).

[Spacecoast]

12Z ECMF ensemble mean (& operational) shifts north.....

[Spacecoast]

Total Precip from various 12z/18z models, from N to S...

18z NAM:

12z HRW-ARW(Adv Research):

18z GFS:

18z NBM (National blend):

12Z HRW-FVS

[skyline385]

HWRF intensifying over land

[KirbyDude25]

HWRF intensifying over land

https://i.imgur.com/7p5t5fs.png

HWRF brings it to 83 knots, I think we can reasonably say it's gone a bit crazy