ATL: ALEX - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#21 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:13 pm

GFS keeps playing catch up with the Euro.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#22 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:38 pm

12z GFS is more organized than previous runs, 996 mbar just before landfall.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#23 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:49 pm

kevin wrote:12z GFS is more organized than previous runs, 996 mbar just before landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/hllXBcq.png


Is this the run from the new supercomputer test? I believe it is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#24 Postby Jelmergraaff » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:55 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
kevin wrote:12z GFS is more organized than previous runs, 996 mbar just before landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/hllXBcq.png


Is this the run from the new supercomputer test? I believe it is.


Would that actually matter in terms of model output? I guess the calculations being made (data-assimilation as well as the physical model itself) should be the same? Of course, when a new version of a model is used, the output will be different (i.e. GFSv15 and GFSv16), but - as far as I know - not when another computer does the calculations.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#25 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:15 pm

12 Euro a bit better oragnized..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#26 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:51 pm

GFS trend
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Euro trend
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Who's catching up?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#27 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:35 pm

Maybe the 12Z GFS actually caught this eastwards movement away from Yucatan

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#28 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:41 pm

18z GFS shows much more rapid organization with a closed 997 mbar low only 8 - 9 hours from now. By comparison, it took the 12z run ~30 hours for the storm to reach such a state. Goes to show just how uncertain the situation is. If this run verifies, tomorrow's first recon (which arrives at 18z) might find a TS.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#29 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:45 pm

18Z GFS seems to have initialized correctly looking at the current state of the system

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#30 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 01, 2022 4:54 pm

18z GFS is a bit further east than 12z and clips the westernmost point of Cuba, which causes the storm to weaken a bit (from 997mb to 1002mb) and lose some of its structure. However, it strenghtens again afterwards and has a secondary peak of 998 mbar & 40 kt. Anything post-Cuba is very uncertain though due to the possibility of a Cuban landfall. Tbh even the stuff before interaction with Cuba is up in the air. If anything, it's already a very interesting system to track.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#31 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:04 pm

12z & 18z GFS now keeping a closed low on its approach to SFL. Now that we have a developing broad circulation and it appears to be setting up offshore, the next few model runs should confirm a sheared blob or maybe a more modest TS moving towards SFL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#32 Postby fci » Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:22 pm

kevin wrote:18z GFS is a bit further east than 12z and clips the westernmost point of Cuba, which causes the storm to weaken a bit (from 997mb to 1002mb) and lose some of its structure. However, it strenghtens again afterwards and has a secondary peak of 998 mbar & 40 kt. Anything post-Cuba is very uncertain though due to the possibility of a Cuban landfall. Tbh even the stuff before interaction with Cuba is up in the air. If anything, it's already a very interesting system to track.

https://imgur.com/KJvpWgY


I think the Western tip of Cuba is very flat and does little to disrupt a circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:24 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#34 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:09 pm

No 00z guidance :x
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#35 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:31 pm

Yes there is Adrian. :D

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#36 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:44 pm

That HWFI intensity guidance, 0Z HWRF gonna be interesting :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#37 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:48 pm

skyline385 wrote:That HWFI intensity guidance, 0Z HWRF gonna be interesting :D


60 mph TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#38 Postby Ian2401 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:54 pm

When will we get our first HWRF runs for 91L?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#39 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:00 pm

Ian2401 wrote:When will we get our first HWRF runs for 91L?

Should be tonight
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#40 Postby hurricane2025 » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:48 pm

Rain maker
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