ATL: ALEX - Models
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ATL: ALEX - Models
Only model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
First run for 91L by GEFS. Looks like a weak TS in these ensembles when it moves thru South Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
91L spends the next 48-72 hours moving on or near Yucatán. If the low can stay offshore then possibly a modest TS for Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Blown Away wrote:91L spends the next 48-72 hours moving on or near Yucatán. If the low can stay offshore then possibly a modest TS for Florida.
I think you meant to say the next 24-48 hours, by 72 hours the models have it approaching or over FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
SFLcane wrote:I will be interesting what the HWRF does with 91L.
You have been around awhile, any guesses as to what the HWRF does with it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
jlauderdal wrote:SFLcane wrote:I will be interesting what the HWRF does with 91L.
You have been around awhile, any guesses as to what the HWRF does with it
Hmm, hurricanes models well hwrf could go with a Cat 1 into South Florida. Honestly it will be really interesting to see who is right Euro/Gfs as that will have a big say in the weather over the state. Euro has been extremely consistent i will say that.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
GFS actually initialized with a closed low this time around and as a result it has a much more organized system approaching Florida. Remnants of Agatha seem to be less of a player this time around which helps in making this a much more consolidated entity.
Last edited by DorkyMcDorkface on Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:GFS actually initialized with a closed low this time around and as a result it has a much more organized system approaching Florida. Remnants of Agatha seem to be less of a player this time around.
https://i.ibb.co/DkSXt3n/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh60-trend.gif
That's quite the change.
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:GFS actually initialized with a closed low this time around and as a result it has a much more organized system approaching Florida. Remnants of Agatha seem to be less of a player this time around.
Same for ICON, was just going to post it. It also shows a more compact circulation.
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Its also going to run over a warm loop current at 28-28.5C right now. If it closes the circulation then there is some potential for it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The GFS has got it stronger now on landfall in the 12z run from the 06z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Every so often, there’s a model run that has 91L/Alex become baroclinically enhanced once east of the US and become a stronger TS or even a Cat 1 hurricane before going out to sea. The GFS used to show such scenarios (even New England landfalls) back when 91L was still a forming Agatha. Now it’s much weaker, but the 12z ICON made it a hurricane in the subtropics.
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