ATL: ALEX - Models

[skyline385]

HWRF intensifying over land

https://i.imgur.com/7p5t5fs.png

HWRF brings it to 83 knots, I think we can reasonably say it's gone a bit crazy

The 83 knots is not right but many models did show some intensification while crossing over FL. NHC has it in their forecast too.

[aspen]

HWRF intensifying over land

https://i.imgur.com/7p5t5fs.png

HWRF brings it to 83 knots, I think we can reasonably say it's gone a bit crazy

Looks like the HWRF is getting a little too excited with the potential for baroclinic forcing to sustain or intensify Alex after Florida. Perhaps it could attain high-end TS status, but I doubt hurricane-force winds would be able to make it down to the surface if they appeared at all

[Blown Away]

Think the models still struggling with a COC and trying to force the COC on N Yucatán coast. I’m predicting a COC reforming to the east and then models will lock on a track in @Naples and out @Ft Pierce.

[NDG]

Latest 18z Euro still bringing heavy squalls all the way to Daytona Beach, through Saturday afternoon.

[Blown Away]

12z

[NDG]

12z GFS persistent in that the CoC will reform further NE later this afternoon. Lookin at the current CoC how weak and broad it is it could be right.
We'll be lucky if we get a quick shower out of this here in the Orlando area if current trends continue.