ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:59 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...ALEX MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 75.0W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 75.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). Further
acceleration to the northeast is expected over the next 12-24
hours. A gradual turn to the east-northeast and east is expected
between Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical
storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today followed by
weakening beginning on Monday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Alex.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, mainly to the southeast of the center of Alex.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda through
Monday

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 7:52 am

Tropical Storm Alex Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
845 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ALEX IS STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the
maximum sustained winds in Alex have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h)
and that the central pressure is near 993 mb.

SUMMARY OF 845 AM EDT...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.39 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:38 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...ALEX MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 73.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 73.9 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to pass near
or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible through
tonight. After that time, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the
system is expected to become an extratropical low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda late
tonight into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Alex has strengthened a little since the last advisory. The
aircraft reported a central pressure near 993 mb and maximum
flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb in the southeastern quadrant.
However, the maximum reliable SFMR surface wind estimates are near
50 kt, so as mentioned previously the strongest winds may not be
mixing down to the surface. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 50 kt. Satellite
imagery shows that Alex remains sheared, with the strongest
convection to the east and northeast of the center. This was
confirmed by the aircraft data, which indicated that the 850 and 700
mb centers were displaced from the surface center.

The initial motion is quickly east-northeastward or 060/20 kt. A
general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h
or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday.
After that, the GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian models forecast an
eastward motion at a slower forward speed as Alex weakens, becomes
extratropical, and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex. The
new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is similar to the
previous forecast. However, by 72-96 h the forecast track is to
the south of the various consensus models, and some adjustment to
this part of the forecast may be necessary later.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 h.
After that, a combination of strong shear, dry air entrainment, and
cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should
cause Alex to weaken. The cyclone is expected to become
extratropical by 48 h and dissipate completely by 120 h. The new
intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous
forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late
tonight and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 30.4N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.7N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 34.2N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 34.6N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/0000Z 34.9N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 35.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:37 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALEX IS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 72.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.28 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 72.5 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to
pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (105
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
through tonight. After that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and
the system is expected to become an extratropical low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 991 mb (29.28 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda late
tonight into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...ALEX MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 71.5W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 71.5 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm
is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
After that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the system is expected
to become an extratropical low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41048 east of the
center recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a
wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda late
tonight into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported reliable-looking SFMR winds of 50-55 kt near the
center of Alex, and 700-mb flight-level winds of up to 77 kt in the
southeastern quadrant. The central pressure was near 991 mb. Based
on these data, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt. While Alex
continues to generate a cluster of convection close to the center in
the northeastern quadrant, overall the cyclone looks a little less
tropical than it did this morning. This is likely due to
entrainment of upper-level cool/dry air from a trough just west of
the cyclone.

Alex has likely peaked in intensity, as the system is moving toward
cooler water and the divergent outflow caused by the aforementioned
upper-level trough is decreasing. Steady weakening is forecast
after 12 h, and Alex is now forecast to become extratropical by 36
hr as it merges with a frontal system. After that, most of the
numerical weather prediction models forecast the system to decay
quickly and weaken to a trough between 72-96 h, and the official
forecast follows this scenario. However, an alternative scenario
comes from the UKMET and the HMON, which show the cyclone becoming
a strong extratropical low that continues quickly northeastward
into the northeastern Atlantic.

The initial motion is now 060/24 kt. A general east-northeastward
motion is expected during the next 24 h or so, with the center of
Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday. After that, the majority
of the dynamical models forecast Alex to turn eastward and slow its
forward speed as it finishes extratropical transition and becomes a
shallow and elongated vortex, and the forecast track follows that
scenario instead of the UKMET/HMON scenario. The new forecast
track is slightly faster than the previous track through 24 h, then
is a little slower than the previous track thereafter. The new
forecast is in best agreement with the GFS model, and after 36 h it
lies to the south of the various consensus models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late
tonight and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 31.5N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 32.6N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 33.9N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 34.8N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/1800Z 35.0N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/0600Z 35.1N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1800Z 35.7N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ALEX AS THE STORM
MOVES QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 70.3W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 70.3 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm is expected
to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After
that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the system is expected to
become an extratropical low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41048 has recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of
64 mph (104 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from data from NOAA buoy
41048 an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 988 mb
(29.18 inches). Buoy 41048 located just east of the center has
recently reported a pressure of 992 mb (29.28 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda tonight
into Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 05 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ALEX A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA LATER
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 69.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 69.0 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A fast
motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday night.
On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm is expected
to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
observations from NOAA Buoy 41048 indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Alex is forecast to begin to weaken overnight, and the
system is expected to become an extratropical low by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. Earlier this evening NOAA buoy 41048 reported peak
sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111
km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft
data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning late tonight.

RAINFALL: Rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda tonight
into Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 05 2022

The satellite presentation of Alex has evolved from a more classic
sheared tropical cyclone this morning to that of an extratropical
transitioning cyclone. There are still some fragments of convection
near the center, but most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is
well removed from the center in a band around the eastern portion of
the circulation. This change in structure is due to an approaching
mid- to upper-level trough and associated dry air that has become
entrained into the circulation. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
observations and data from NOAA buoy 41048 indicate that Alex is
slightly stronger. Reports from a center drop from the aircraft
showed that the pressure had fallen to around 984 mb, and the buoy
reported a peak one-minute wind of 52 kt at 4 meters. Based on
these data the initial intensity has been set at 60 kt. However,
the cyclone may already be beginning to fill as the latest
reconnaissance aircraft pass through the center reported that the
pressure had risen 4 mb.

Alex will be moving over cooler waters and into a higher shear
environment during the next 12-24 hours, therefore weakening should
commence very soon. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and
ECMWF suggest the system will struggle to redevelop deep convection
near the center and the system is now forecast to become
post-tropical by 24 hours, if not sooner. The global model guidance
now also indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed
along a frontal boundary as a new baroclinic low develops from a
strong mid-latitude trough moving southeastward from Atlantic Canada
in a day or two. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for
absorption within the new low within 48 hours.

Alex is moving 060/24 kt. The cyclone should remain on a general
east-northeastward motion during the next day or so, with the
center passing north of Bermuda on Monday. The new forecast is
again faster than the previous advisory and lies near a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late
tonight and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 32.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 33.7N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 35.3N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/1200Z 37.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#28 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:28 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING BERMUDA AS ALEX CONTINUES
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 66.7 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue until the storm is absorbed tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast later today,
and Alex is also forecast to become an extratropical low later
today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. Recently, an elevated station in Bermuda reported
a sustained wind of 59 mph (94 km/h) gusting to 67 mph (107 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda through
this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 1 to 2 inches or
25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake




Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex is looking increasingly less like a tropical cyclone and more
like a post-tropical entity. While the low-level circulation is
clearly evident on conventional satellite imagery, it is largely
devoid of deep central convection, with the nearest cold cloud tops
below -60C located more than 200 nm to the northeast. Those well
removed colder cloud tops are forming in response to a digging
mid-latitude trough that will ultimately lead to Alex's demise. In
the meantime, there was a convective band east of Alex that produced
tropical-storm-force winds over Bermuda this morning, and these
winds will likely continue until the center passes by to the north
later today. Earlier Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found flight
level winds that still supported an intensity of 60 kt at 0600 UTC.
However, assuming some weakening has occurred since then given
the current lack of convection near the center, the initial
intensity has been reduced to 55 kt for this advisory.

Alex is expected to continue moving over cooler waters in an
environment of increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-latitude
air, and the cyclone is likely to become extratropical or a remnant
low later today. Beyond 36 hours, the GFS and ECMWF forecast an
upstream mid-latitude trough to spawn a new surface baroclinic
cyclone northeast of Alex, causing the former tropical cyclone to be
absorbed at the end of the forecast period. The current NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, though it
now moves up extratropical transition to later today.

Alex continues to move briskly to the east-northeast at 065/24 kt.
The cyclone should remain on this general heading over the next 36
hours or so before it is absorbed. Once again the forecast this
cycle is a bit faster than the previous one, blending the consensus
aids and an average between the operational GFS and ECMWF runs
(GFEX).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda today, and
tropical storm conditions are expected on the island through this
afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 33.5N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 34.7N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/0600Z 36.7N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 07/1800Z 39.5N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:01 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
800 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT BERMUDA AS ALEX PASSES
NEARBY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 65.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 65.1 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue until the storm is absorbed
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Alex is expected to become an
extratropical low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. The Bermuda Airport reported a sustained wind of
39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) within the last
hour. A Bermuda Weather Service buoy at Crescent Reef, just north
of Bermuda, recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h)
with a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h). An automated station at the
Bermuda Heliport reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and
a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda through
this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 1 to 2 inches or
25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda through this afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...ALEX BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 63.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 63.8 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Alex is expected to become
an extratropical low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, the Bermuda
Airport reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to
56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda
for the next several hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex continues to lack deep convection anywhere near its core,
with the majority of the heavy showers and thunderstorms displaced
nearly 200 n mi to the northeast of the center due to the
persistently strong shear. Observations from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 700 mb center of
the vortex is tilted some 30 n mi northeast of the low-level
center, likely as a result of the shear. Based on a blend of
flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the
intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Given the
lack of central convection and continued shear, some weakening
and continued loss of tropical characteristics are likely today.
However, the cyclone will probably maintain some of its intensity
for the next day or so due to baroclinic processes. In 36 hours or
so, the global models depict The post-tropical low merging with an
extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic, so the official
forecast shows the system as dissipated by 48 hours.

The storm continues to move rapidly toward the east-northeast, or
around 065/25 kt. Alex should remain embedded in the southern
portion of the mid-latitude westerlies and continue this general
motion for the next day or two. The official forecast is close
to both the simple and corrected dynamical consensus track
forecasts, TVCN and HCCA respectively, and is also similar to the
previous NHC prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on the island
of Bermuda for the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 34.0N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 35.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/1200Z 38.3N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0000Z 41.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:33 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
200 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...ALEX LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 62.2 West. Alex is
moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Alex is
expected to become an extratropical low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Winds at Bermuda will continue to subside over the
next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ALEX - ADVISORIES

#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 06, 2022 3:34 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...ALEX BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 60.6W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex has not produced any deep convection near its center since last
night. It's surface circulation has also become elongated and
ill-defined. Based on these factors, Alex is now classified as
post-tropical and this will be the last advisory. The initial
intensity is set at 50 kt, assuming a little weakening has occurred
since this morning, though this is uncertain due to a lack of recent
ASCAT or surface observations.

Alex is moving quickly toward the east-northeast. Another
non-tropical low or trough is forecast to develop to the northeast
of Alex tonight. While there is quite a bit of variability in the
details, all global models forecast that Alex and the other low
will merge within the next 24 h or so, so the NHC forecast now
shows dissipation at that time. The baroclinic system that results
from that merger is expected to strengthen and could produce
hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic by midweek. For more
information, please see forecasts from the National Weather Service
Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 35.5N 60.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 07/0600Z 37.6N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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