TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022
...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS,
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 87.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula south of the Middle of Longboat Key and for the
east coast of the Florida peninsula south of the Volusia/Brevard
County line, including Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of the Florida Keys,
including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and
Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the northwestern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.4 North, longitude 87.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
tonight. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, and a
faster motion toward the northeast is expected Friday night and
Saturday. On the forecast track, the system should move across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move
across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula
on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression on Friday
and a tropical storm late Friday or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the
Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will
begin to affect South Florida and the Keys Friday and continue
through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are
currently expected:
Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2
to 4 inches, with isolated maximum of 6 inches.
Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
South Florida including the Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals
of 12 inches. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban
flooding especially across the urban corridors.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba on Friday, and in the watch area in Florida by Friday
night or Saturday morning.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, Florida...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022
Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low
pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. This system is currently producing poorly
organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects
of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The central
pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed
winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center. Due to the
possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with
impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula
and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas.
The initial motion is 360/3. The system should turn northeastward
during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should
continue through the end of the forecast period. The guidance is
in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday. It should be noted that the guidance
suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to
convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track
superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion.
The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very
uncertain. It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum
winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction
with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant
development over the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance does suggests
slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity
forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in
about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h. However, these winds
are likely to be well removed from the center. Interaction with a
mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over
the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast.
Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over
portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the
Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this
system.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue
through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba.
2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida
Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and
urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South
Florida and in the Keys.
3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch
area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and
Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 22.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 03/1800Z 23.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 24.8N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 26.5N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 33.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022
...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS,
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 87.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula south of the Middle of Longboat Key and for the
east coast of the Florida peninsula south of the Volusia/Brevard
County line, including Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of the Florida Keys,
including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and
Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the northwestern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.4 North, longitude 87.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
tonight. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, and a
faster motion toward the northeast is expected Friday night and
Saturday. On the forecast track, the system should move across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move
across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula
on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression on Friday
and a tropical storm late Friday or Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the
Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will
begin to affect South Florida and the Keys Friday and continue
through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are
currently expected:
Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2
to 4 inches, with isolated maximum of 6 inches.
Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
South Florida including the Keys: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals
of 12 inches. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban
flooding especially across the urban corridors.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba on Friday, and in the watch area in Florida by Friday
night or Saturday morning.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, Florida...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022
Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low
pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. This system is currently producing poorly
organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects
of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The central
pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed
winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center. Due to the
possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with
impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula
and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas.
The initial motion is 360/3. The system should turn northeastward
during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should
continue through the end of the forecast period. The guidance is
in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday. It should be noted that the guidance
suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to
convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track
superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion.
The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very
uncertain. It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum
winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction
with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant
development over the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance does suggests
slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity
forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in
about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h. However, these winds
are likely to be well removed from the center. Interaction with a
mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over
the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast.
Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over
portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the
Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this
system.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue
through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba.
2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida
Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and
urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South
Florida and in the Keys.
3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch
area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and
Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 22.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 03/1800Z 23.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 24.8N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 26.5N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 33.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
