EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#161 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:50 pm

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Blas continues to spin down. Satellite images show that the
center remains partially exposed and deep convection is still
limited to the southeastern quadrant. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed
maximum winds of around 40 kt, but it did not catch the southeast
side of the system. Based on that pass and the latest Dvorak
estimates that range from 35-55 kt, the initial intensity is nudged
down again to 45 kt. An observation on Socorro Island, Mexico,
reported sustained winds of tropical-storm-force earlier today, and
gusts to that threshold are still ongoing.

The tropical storm is moving slowly northwestward at about 5 kt. A
continued slow westward to northwestward motion within the low- to
mid-level flow is expected to continue until the system dissipates
in 3 to 4 days. The models have trended southward this cycle, and
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm
is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an
environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These
factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely
become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days, or possibly even
sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the
previous one, and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip
currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern
part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should
subside tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.4N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 18.8N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 18.7N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.7N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 18.9N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#162 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 18, 2022 9:28 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#163 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2022 9:37 pm

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

The convection associated with Blas has increased some during the
past several hours, mostly in a band in the southeasteastern
quadrant of the storm. The initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt, on
the higher side of the recent Dvorak estimates in deference to the
marginally improved satellite presentation. A combination of cool
SSTs, dry mid-level air and decreasing atmospheric instability
should cause a general weakening of Blas during the next day or two.
The storm is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday and
degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure by Monday evening.
No significant changes were made to the last NHC intensity forecast.

Blas has turned more to the west-northwest tonight or 300/4 kt.
The cyclone should move slowly in that direction overnight and then
more westward tomorrow in light low-level trades. Model guidance
is in very good agreement, and only cosmetic changes were made to
the previous NHC track foreast. The remnants of Blas should open up
into a surface trough in 3 or 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.7N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 18.9N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 18.8N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z 18.9N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#164 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 19, 2022 4:53 am

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Blas remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with deep convection
restricted to the eastern half of the system's circulation. The
tropical storm is maintaining its limited convection for the moment
despite having moved over marginally cool sea surface temperatures
below 26 deg C. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on an
average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Blas should slowly
weaken during the next few days as it continues to move through a
dry and stable surrounding environment and over marginal SSTs. The
official forecast shows Blas becoming a remnant low in about 36 h
and dissipating during the middle of the week.

Blas is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (295/4 kt). As the
tropical storm weakens, it should be steered westward by
low-level trade wind flow for the next couple of days. Very little
change was made to NHC official track forecast, which is near the
middle of the global deterministic model forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.8N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 18.9N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1800Z 19.0N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#165 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 19, 2022 6:58 am

That eye hasn't moved all night long!
:wink:

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:57 am

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#167 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 19, 2022 1:36 pm

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191434
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Blas has generally changed little in strength and structure during
the past several hours. The storm is maintaining an area of deep
convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The Dvorak
classifications continue to range between 35 and 45 kt, and based
on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Blas is
already over cool 25 degree C waters, and it is headed for even
cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass.
These conditions should cause the storm to decay, and it will
likely become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 6 kt. An even
slower westward motion is expected within the low-level flow until
the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a touch slower
than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#168 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:40 pm

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Deep convection has been withering away from the circulation of Blas
this afternoon, and only a few broken convective bands remain to the
north and northeast of the center. The Dvorak classifications
from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from
34 to 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, near the
low end of the satellite estimates, given the degraded appearance of
the storm this afternoon. Blas is already over cool waters, and
even cooler waters along its future track plus dry and stable air
should cause the system to further decay. The NHC forecast
shows Blas becoming a remnant low in 24 hours, but this could occur
sooner if the current trends continue. The system is forecast to
completely dissipate in a few days.

The storm has been moving very slowly and erratically throughout
the day. It is unclear if the center has also reformed a little to
the east this afternoon. Regardless, the overall motion has been a
northwestward drift. A slow west to west-northwest motion within
the low-level flow is expected to resume soon and continue until
dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.1N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.2N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.3N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 19.4N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 19.6N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 19.9N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#169 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 19, 2022 4:00 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 191817
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLAS)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 19.1N

D. 112.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR TIGHTLY-DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND A LLCC <1.25 DEG FM A SMALL COLD OVC RESULTING IN A
DT OF 2.0. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#170 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 19, 2022 4:52 pm

epac moment

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#171 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:57 pm

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Blas has lost any organized deep
convection, with only a few small blobs of activity well northeast
of the center. Dvorak estimates still support keeping Blas a
tropical storm for this advisory. The cyclone should not be long
for this world due to the continuing influences of dry air and cool
waters. Most likely, Blas will weaken into a tropical depression
early Monday and a convection-free remnant low by Monday afternoon.
This is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and little
change was made to the previous NHC forecast.

Blas is moving slowly westward tonight at around 4 kt. The storm
should creep westward for the next couple of days within the weak
low-level trade flow. The global models generally show Blas
degenerating into a trough on day 3, so the dissipation time has
been moved up to 60 h. The track forecast is very close to the
previous one and the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.1N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 19.7N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#172 Postby Astromanía » Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:49 am

Didn't know 4 people died in south Mexico due to Blas rainbands
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Depression

#173 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 4:22 am

Tropical Depression Blas Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

There is little or no deep convection remaining in association with
Blas, aside from a few showers well removed from the center over
the northeastern quadrant. A scatterometer pass revealed that
there are no longer winds of tropical storm force in the
circulation. Therefore the system is being downgraded to a
tropical depression on this advisory. Given the lack of deep
convection, it is likely that Blas will degenerate into a remnant
low later today. The cyclone should continue to spin down in an
unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, and open up into a
trough in a couple of days.

Blas continues to move slowly westward, or 275/4 kt. This general
motion should persist, within the low-level easterly flow,
until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast remains very
close to the previous one and to the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.1N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.2N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/0600Z 19.4N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1800Z 19.6N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 19.6N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

#174 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:41 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Blas has been unable
to produce organized deep convection near its center for almost 24
h. Although a couple of sporadic bursts of convection have occurred
to its north this morning, this is not deemed enough to maintain its
status as a tropical cyclone. Since the system has degenerated into
a remnant low, this will be the final NHC advisory on Blas. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak current
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB.

The remnant low is moving westward at 275/4 kt, and it is forecast
to continue moving slowly westward to west-northwestward over the
next couple of days. This will bring the system over cooler waters
and into a drier mid-level environment with increasing deep-layer
southerly shear. Therefore, the remnant low is expected to gradually
weaken and open into a trough by Wednesday.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1200Z 19.6N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 19.8N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 19.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

#175 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:21 am

Uhhh it has convection still. Plug shouldn’t have been pulled.
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