EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#121 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:04 pm

Blas almost certainly has peaked. Not sure why the NHC is still forecasting an 85kt peak when the core now looks like this:
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#122 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:05 pm

I would uhh not call Blas a well-organized hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#123 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:49 pm

Yea kinda weird the NHC went with 85 kts peak, no 18Z dynamical models are showing anything and SHIPS is down as well. The core is gone and it looks poor on satellite.

EDIT: Now the 0Z GFS shows some strengthening lol, hard to imagine it though with the state it is in.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#124 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:53 am

Looks can be deceiving but shear is hitting it pretty good... Classic CCC now.

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#125 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:38 am

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

A GMI microwave overpass received just after the last advisory
showed decay of the inner core structure of Blas, with the central
deep convection occurring only in the southern semicircle. In
addition, the cloud pattern in infrared imagery now looks more like
a shear pattern than a central dense overcast. These changes are
likely due to the effects of 15-25 kt of easterly shear currently
analyzed over the cyclone. Despite the convective decay, the
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus are unchanged since the last advisory. Thus, the initial
intensity remains a possibly generous 75 kt.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 6-12 h due to
the shear. The shear should diminish some between 12-24 h and
allow Blas to strengthen a little more. After that, the cyclone is
forecast to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, which
should cause a gradual weakening for the remainder of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of
the guidance and has some minor adjustments from the previous
advisory.

The microwave imagery indicated that the center was a little to the
north of the previous advisory position, and the initial motion is
a somewhat uncertain 300/5. Blas should be steered west-
northwestward with some increase in forward speed by the flow on the
south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge. As the cyclone weakens
later in the forecast period, it is expected to turn west-
southwestward following the lower-level tradewind flow. The new
forecast track is a little to the north of, and faster than, the
previous forecast track, and it lies near the various consensus
models.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.2N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 17.0N 107.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.9N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 18.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#126 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:53 am

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

The satellite presentation of Blas in geostationary imagery has not
changed much this morning with the center embedded within the
northern portion of the central dense overcast. Recent microwave
imagery, however, shows that there has been some additional
degradation of the inner-core due to moderate east-northeasterly
shear. There is a bit more uncertainty than normal in the initial
intensity of the hurricane as the subjective Dvorak estimates are
on the higher end at 77 and 90 kt, while objective satellite
estimates from the ADT and SATCON are lower at 70 and 64 kt,
respectively. The advisory intensity is kept near a consensus of
these estimates at 75 kt.

Although the shear is forecast to relax slightly during the next
12-24 hours, the recent degradation of the inner core will likely
prevent any further intensification. Therefore, little change in
strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning. By 36 hours, Blas
is forecast to cross the 26 degree Celsius isotherm which should
commence the weakening process. Steady weakening is then
anticipated during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas
moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions, and the cyclone
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 4. The NHC
intensity prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and
ICON consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/7 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to
steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward
speed over the next 48-72 hours. After that time, a weaker and more
shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within
the lower-level tradewind flow. There is very little cross-track
spread among the various dynamical models, but there is some
along-track or speed differences with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS much
faster than the ECMWF. The new NHC track forecast is a little
faster than the previous advisory, closer to the latest HCCA and
TVCE consensus aids, but additional adjustments could be required in
subsequent advisories.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.9N 104.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#127 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:10 am

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#128 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:41 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#129 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:35 pm

Blas is now trying to bounce back some after it’s battle with ULAC misalignment shear with a visible eye and some effort to rotate upshear. Window for deepening probably shuts after 18 hours due to thermodynamic factors but in the meantime I wouldn’t be surprised if dry air intrusions are an issue.

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#130 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:39 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 161802
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLAS)

B. 16/1730Z

C. 15.9N

D. 105.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN DT OF 4.5. MET IS 4.0 DUE
24 HOUR SLOW WEKENING TREND AND THE PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#131 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:59 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLAS EP022022 06/16/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 71 69 61 53 43 39 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 71 69 61 53 43 39 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 75 74 73 71 67 57 47 40 35 31 28 25 22 19 15 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 18 17 18 12 8 2 4 10 18 26 33 34 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 2 0 -2 0 1 -2 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 -10 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 56 53 52 51 39 51 62 46 33 121 159 162 154 150 144 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 24.9 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.8 24.5 24.6 24.5 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 135 122 120 116 110 114 111 107 108 105 104 101 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 77 76 72 68 61 58 50 48 46 42 40 40 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 25 26 23 20 17 16 13 12 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 72 82 72 73 89 84 73 54 60 41 54 39 45 33 34 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 97 98 60 40 36 27 35 1 -8 -34 -15 -1 12 19 -27 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -6 -10 -5 -5 -4 -1 -1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 316 349 371 426 497 553 579 603 691 777 835 906 957 1001 1008 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.8 18.8 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.1 107.1 108.2 109.4 111.4 112.8 113.8 115.0 115.9 116.7 117.6 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 12 12 16 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -27. -31. -33. -35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -5. -10. -12. -17. -17. -19. -19. -19. -19. -17. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -22. -32. -36. -44. -48. -54. -59. -65. -71. -71. -71.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.0 105.1

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 1.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.17 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -3.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 14.8% 12.2% 10.9% 6.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.7% 5.5% 4.2% 3.7% 2.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#132 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:09 pm

6 hour old pass shows it improved its mid level eye quite a bit:
Image
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#133 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 16, 2022 3:22 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#134 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 3:49 pm

TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Geostationary satellite imagery suggests that the low-level center
of Blas has become more aligned with the mid-level center and
closer to the center of the central dense overcast during the last
6 hours. Despite this improvement, the convection is a little
shallower in the western semicircle of the hurricane than it was
this morning. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are 90
kt and 77 kt, respectively. The latest CIMSS-ADT estimate is 60 kt.
Taking a blend of the data, the intensity is held at 75 kt for this
advisory.

Moderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue over Blas
through the next 36 hours. Blas has another 18 hours or so over
warm water before it crosses the 26 degree Celsius isotherm. Little
change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning, while
the cyclone remains over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening
should begin in about 24 hours, and is anticipated to continue
during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into
less favorable thermodynamic conditions. The cyclone is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low around day 3. The NHC intensity
prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and HFIP
corrected consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 285/7 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to
steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward
speed over the next 48-60 hours. After that time, a weaker and more
shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within
the low-level tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly
clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the
consensus models. The new NHC track forecast is once again faster
than the previous advisory.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.2N 105.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.8N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.3N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 18.7N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 18.8N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 18.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z 18.2N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#135 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:40 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 170004
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLAS)

B. 16/2330Z

C. 16.3N

D. 106.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A LLCC THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS IN A DT OF
5.0. THE MET IS 4.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION AND THE FACT THAT THE CENTRAL
COLD OVERCAST ONLY RECENTLY REDEVELOPED WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#136 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:59 pm

Latest ASMR2 pass showed the core open to the NW a few hours ago. Has like 12 hours left before it shuts down.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#137 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:18 pm

02E BLAS 220617 0000 16.4N 106.0W EPAC 75 980
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#138 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:05 pm

Not well organized. Dvorak estimates are too strong.

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#139 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:42 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#140 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:43 pm

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Blas continues to battle moderate northeasterly shear this evening.
Geostationary satellite infrared imagery shows cloud top
temperatures have warmed over a large portion of the central dense
overcast. There is still some strong convection near the center and
curved banding features. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB evaluate the intensity at 90 kt and 77 kt, respectively.
Objective Dvorak estimates are somewhat lower and the initial
intensity is held at 75 kt as a compromise of these estimates.

Blas is forecast to move over gradually cooling SSTs and into an
increasingly dry environment over the next few days. These
environmental factors should result in a slow weakening trend. The
NHC intensity prediction is slightly above the model consensus and
it is possible the storm could weaken faster than indicated here.

The initial motion estimate remains about the same, at 290/9 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north continues to be the dominant steering
feature and Blas is expected to maintain its west-northwest track
with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so.
Later in the forecast period, a weaker and more shallow Blas is
likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the low-level
tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly clustered, and
the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the track guidance
suite.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.7N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 18.1N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z 18.1N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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