EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#141 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:16 pm

This is still struggling a bit to rotate upshear. It’s not having as bad of a night as the Boston Celtics but it’s enough of a hinderance where I don’t expect this to clear an eye before SST’s drop in about 9 hours.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#142 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 17, 2022 3:44 am

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Conventional satellite imagery and earlier GMI and SSMI/S microwave
images indicated that the location of Blas' center was near the
northern edge of the deep convective mass. Evidently, the
northeasterly shear persists and impinges on the north portion of
the cloud pattern. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged, and the initial
intensity is, once again, held at 75 kt.

Blas is expected to move over cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures and into a high statically stable thermodynamic
surrounding environment during the next few days. Gradual
weakening is then forecast through the remainder of the period.
The official intensity forecast has changed little from the previous
one and sides with the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity
forecasts.

The microwave passes showed Blas a little north of the previous
advisory position, and the initial motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt. Blas is embedded in the
east-southeasterly steering flow generated by a mid-tropospheric
ridge extending from northern Mexico into the eastern North Pacific
ocean. Some strengthening of the ridge should cause Blas to
increase forward speed today. A weaker, more vertically shallow
cyclone will likely turn westward in the low-level easterlies by
early next week. Only minor along-track adjustments were made
to the new track forecast, and a blend of the HCCA and TVCE were
used as a basis.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to parts of the
southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 17.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z 18.4N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#143 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:23 am

Blas is trying so hard to intensify but that shear will not abide.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#144 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:24 am

TXPZ22 KNES 171200
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLAS)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 17.4N

D. 108.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A lLCC IS EMBEDDED IN B YIELD A DT OF 5.0, THE MET IS 4.5
AND PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#145 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:02 am

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#146 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:03 am

396
WTPZ42 KNHC 171445
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Blas has become a little better organized this morning. Microwave
data from overnight showed an eye feature and numerous curved
bands, especially south of the center. Since then, deep convection
has been increasing and has become a bit more symmetric around the
center. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 77 to 90 kt, and
the initial intensity is nudged up to 80 kt based on that data.

The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295 degrees,
at 12 kt. Blas is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge
centered over the south-central U.S. The hurricane is expected to
slow down on Saturday and turn westward on Sunday as the system
weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the lighter low-level
flow. This slow westward motion is forecast to continue through the
middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus aids.

Blas is currently in favorable conditions for strengthening, but
that is not expected to last much longer. The hurricane should
cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today and move over
progressively cooler waters during the next several days. In
addition, Blas will be moving into an environment of increasingly
more stable and dry air. These conditions should promote a steady
weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow post-tropical
system in a few days. The NHC intensity is forecast is a touch
higher than the previous one, due to the slightly stronger initial
intensity.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. These swells
are expected to spread to parts of the southern Baja California
peninsula later today and continue through the weekend. These
conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in
those areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 17.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#147 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:58 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#148 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jun 17, 2022 3:22 pm

Weakening now. Down to 75 kts on the Best Track.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#149 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 17, 2022 3:45 pm

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

The strengthening observed this morning has come to an end,
and Blas now seems to be on a weakening trend. Deep convection has
become increasingly ragged and banding features appear a little
less defined. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and the
latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is nudged down to 75
kt. A partial ASCAT pass was helpful in locating the center and
analyzing the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.

During the past several hours, the hurricane has turned more to the
left, and the latest initial motion estimate is westward at 12
kt. Blas is currently being steered by a strong mid-level ridge
that is centered over the south-central U.S. A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days
as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the
lighter low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the
south of the previous one, partially based on the initial position
and motion.

Blas is about to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and it will be
moving over progressively cooler waters during the next several
days. In addition, the cyclone will be moving into an environment
of increasingly more stable and dry air. These conditions should
cause a steady weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a
shallow post-tropical system in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity is
just an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and
IVCN guidance.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula for another day or two. These conditions are likely to
cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.4N 109.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.8N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.1N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 18.3N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.2N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1800Z 18.6N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#150 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 17, 2022 6:03 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#151 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:15 pm

Blas is looking pretty blah tonight. BT somehow still has this as a weak hurricane, even though it’s just a collection of wispy warm convection.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#152 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:44 pm

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#153 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:49 pm

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Blas has fallen apart tonight. The mid-level center of the cyclone
has sheared off to the southwest, with no deep convection near the
surface center, and a mostly-exposed low-level center was visible
on the last few daylight satellite images. Dvorak classifications
are basically dropping as fast as the rules allow, and given the
lack of any significant thunderstorm activity, the initial wind
speed is set on the low end of the estimates to 60 kt.

Continued weakening is anticipated due to Blas moving over cool
waters, although the loss of strength could be tempered by
decreasing wind shear as well. The storm should produce a few more
rounds of deep convection in the marginally unstable environment
before eventually becoming a remnant low early next week. Model
guidance is in good agreement on this solution, and the only modest
change to the forecast was lowering it in the near-term due to the
initial intensity. Additionally, the timing of Blas becoming a
post-tropical cyclone was moved up by 12 h in this forecast cycle,
and since most of the guidance indicate Blas should decay into a
trough around 120 h, the NHC forecast does as well.

Blas has slowed considerably during the past several hours,
probably due to the vortex decoupling, with an initial motion
estimate of 290/6 kt. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion
is expected during the next several days due to the system
weakening and becoming increasingly steered by the lighter
low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, shifted a bit to the north to come into
better agreement with the model consensus aids.

While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula for another day or two. These conditions are likely to
cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 18.4N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 18.4N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#154 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:15 pm

Decent hurricane for June, pretty much performed as expected, except for those few advisories that predicted an 85kt peak.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#155 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 18, 2022 12:55 am

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#156 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2022 5:03 am

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Blas' cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate rapidly this
morning. The conventional satellite imagery and microwave
presentations show what remains of the deep convection is confined
to a small area in the southwest quadrant. The initial intensity
is lowered to 55 kt and is based on a blend of the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. However,
this estimate could be a bit generous given the recent METOP-B
scatterometer pass that showed peak winds of 40 to 45 kt.

The 20 kt of northeasterly shear weakening Blas is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours or so. By that time,
however, the cyclone should be moving over decreasing sea surface
temperatures and into a less thermodynamically favorable air mass.
The global models and the statistical intensity guidance agree with
Blas degenerating into a remnant low early next week,
and the NHC forecast follows suit.

Blas is likely being steered by the weaker low-level trades and is
moving west-northwestward or 285/5 kt. This general motion is
forecast to continue until it opens into a trough of low
pressure around the middle of next week. The latest NHC track
forecast is nudged a little to the right of the previous one and
lies close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.

While Blas weakens and moves farther away from the coast of Mexico,
its associated swells that are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
should subside by early next week. These conditions, however, are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas over
the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.8N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.4N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 18.5N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 19.3N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#157 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 18, 2022 6:27 am

Classic Eastern Pacific dying look with all the convection over actually a thermodynamically favorable environment that will likely die down by tonight. We are probably looking at full on PTC by tomorrow.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#158 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2022 9:35 am

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning.
Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center
with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the
circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB,
and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the
intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4
kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within
the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the
middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be
positioned closer to the various consensus aids.

Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm
is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an
environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These
factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely
become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity
forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the
majority of the guidance.

Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip
currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern
part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should
subside tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#159 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:55 am

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#160 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:24 pm

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