EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#101 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:27 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SmprcYt.gif
Easterly shear seems pretty strong


It is due to the displaced ULAC. The vortex might allow for a period where the ULAC becomes a bit better aligned (SHIPS shear output hints at this as is) but I think we’re fairly close to its peak intensity now. Convection is struggling to rotate to the northeast quadrant. It’s door for deepening officially closes in 48 hours as it begins to move the sharp SST gradient (that probably should have a name??) that leads into the California Current.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#102 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:55 pm

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

The satellite presentation of Blas this afternoon remains quite
healthy, with deep cold cloud tops below -80 C near the center and a
well-defined curved band wrapping 3/4ths around the western side of
the cyclone. A late arriving AMSR2 pass at 1854 UTC still showed a
mid-level eye feature on 89-GHz, though it remains a bit open to
the east on the 37-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
1800 UTC were up to T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate has been holding steady at T4.4/75 kt.
These data support an initial intensity of 75 kt for this advisory.

Blas has maintained a general west-northwestward heading today,
currently estimated at 290/5 kt. The track philosophy has also not
changed much today, as a deep-layer ridge building westward to the
north of Blas is expected to maintain the cyclone on its current
heading with a bit of acceleration over the next couple of days.
Afterwards, Blas is likely to become increasingly steered by the
lower-level flow as it becomes vertically shallow, leading to a
slowdown and bend in the track to the west and west-southwest at the
end of the forecast period. There was a modest increase in forward
motion from the guidance suite this cycle, so the track forecast was
also nudged a bit faster, but is still very close to the previous
forecast track and near the reliable consensus aids.

Blas has intensified 30-kt in the last 24 hours, which qualifies as
rapid intensification. Whether of not this rate of intensification
continues likely hinges on the impact of moderate (20-30 kt)
easterly vertical wind shear which both the GFS and ECMWF suggest is
already impinging on the cyclone. The latest intensity forecast
still shows a peak of 85 kt in 24 h, but slows the rate of
intensification relative to the prior advisory. This forecast is on
the high side of the guidance envelope and is closest to the latest
SHIPS and LGEM runs. After 36 h, sea-surface temperatures begin to
rapidly decrease underneath Blas as it also moves towards an
increasingly dry and stable environment, as seen by the widespread
stratocumulus field to the northwest of the system on visible
satellite. Weakening is forecast to commence by Friday, with the
global model guidance now suggesting Blas could become a remnant low
by the end of the forecast period as convection ceases.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.5N 104.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.1N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.7N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.4N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 18.0N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.3N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 18.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 686
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#103 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Jun 15, 2022 4:45 pm

Northeasterly shear is evident on microwave:
Image
2 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#104 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 15, 2022 4:52 pm

Finally an EPAC TC that uses the very warm SSTs available to create deep convection and counter the affects on what should be detrimental shear.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#105 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:10 pm

Image
0 likes   

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 735
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#106 Postby Astromanía » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:32 pm

Looks pretty
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#107 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:46 pm

Image

Good at mid-levels at least.
3 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#108 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:46 pm

This sandwich loop captures its growth in size nicely

5 likes   

User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 852
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#109 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:48 pm

skyline385 wrote:EPAC is producing some pretty systems so far. Meanwhile we get Alex lol


extremely normal for mid June and this happens every year
5 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#110 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:20 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
skyline385 wrote:EPAC is producing some pretty systems so far. Meanwhile we get Alex lol


extremely normal for mid June and this happens every year

This is a much stronger start for the EPac than during the previous two La Niña years. It’s strange, but is probably most comparable to 2010, which had a very strong La Niña but produced a June Cat 5 before the Atlantic even had its first storm.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#111 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:27 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
skyline385 wrote:EPAC is producing some pretty systems so far. Meanwhile we get Alex lol


extremely normal for mid June and this happens every year


The last time EPAC had pretty storms around this time was 2018 (and that wasn't a normal season), for 2020 & 2021 the pretty ones were Douglas and Felicia in mid-July.
Last edited by skyline385 on Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#112 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:27 pm

Regardless of El Nino or La Nina, the EPAC is always game off of Mexico if conditions are favorable. Also it's very sensitive to intraseasonal variability. We've had a good amount of CCKW activity helping to keep this CAG alive and the steering is giving these disturbances space to develop.
5 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#113 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:16 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 152354
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLAS)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 15.4N

D. 103.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 4.5 BASED ON RAPID 24-HOUR DEVELOPMENT. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/2013Z 15.1N 102.9W AMSR2


...CLARK
0 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 686
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#114 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:17 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Regardless of El Nino or La Nina, the EPAC is always game off of Mexico if conditions are favorable. Also it's very sensitive to intraseasonal variability. We've had a good amount of CCKW activity helping to keep this CAG alive and the steering is giving these disturbances space to develop.

Exactly, this is commonplace EPAC climo. There are several -ENSO years where the EPAC got off to a decent start in June/July only to slow down come ASO. It really isn't all that uncommon.
0 likes   
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#115 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:26 pm

EPAC peak is pretty broad so periods of multiple hurricanes followed by periods of inactivity aren’t unusual and it’s what I expect will happen here. The correlation between multiple hurricanes and especially major hurricanes pre-July and overall activity is pretty sound historically but there are exceptions (1996, 2000, 2010, 2013), and all but 2010 are decent analogs to this season.
2 likes   

Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 735
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#116 Postby Astromanía » Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Regardless of El Nino or La Nina, the EPAC is always game off of Mexico if conditions are favorable. Also it's very sensitive to intraseasonal variability. We've had a good amount of CCKW activity helping to keep this CAG alive and the steering is giving these disturbances space to develop.

Yeah, El Niño or La Niña doesn't really matter because Mexico is affected by EPAC storms almost every year, it's very rare don't see a least one storm per season making landfall, plus EPAC activity in May, June and July can be high no matter the state of ENSO
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#117 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:47 pm

EP, 02, 2022061600, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1033W, 75, 980, HU
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#118 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:20 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#119 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:56 pm

Think it peaked, both the 18Z Hurricane models didnt show any more strengthening and its not looking that impressive on IR as well.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#120 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:40 pm

Has not peaked yet.

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Blas remains a well-organized hurricane with very cold cloud tops
near the center, some curved banding, and an impressive
upper-level outflow in all quadrants but the northeast. Subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates hold the hurricane's current
intensity at T4.5/75 kt, so the initial intensity will remain at
75 kt for this advisory.

Blas is expected to strengthen further to a peak intensity of 85 kt
in the next 24 h before entering a less favorable environment of
increased easterly vertical shear and cooler waters. The intensity
forecast has changed little compared to the previous NHC
prediction and remains near the higher end of the numerical
guidance, with DSHIPS generally showing the most intensification of
the models.

The initial motion of Blas is estimated to be 290/5 kt. A
well-established 500 mb ridge extending from the southern United
States across Mexico and into the eastern North Pacific should
continue to steer the tropical cyclone on a generally
west-northwestward track for the next few days. As Blas weakens in
the latter part of the forecast period, it is expected to turn
west-southwestward following the lower-level tradewind flow. The
track model guidance is in very good agreement throughout most of
the forecast period with some differences in forward speed later in
the period. The official forecast remains close to the model
consensus and very close to the previous NHC track forecast.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 103.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.4N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 18.6N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 18.3N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests