EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#81 Postby Subtrop » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:47 am

EP, 02, 2022061512, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1027W, 65, 988, HU,
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:52 am

There you have it...
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:52 am

Nice. Now we see how strong this gets
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#84 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:55 am

[div]BULLETIN
Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 102.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES[




Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to
improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In
fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is
developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye
feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC
subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt
from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates
from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate
at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for
the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane.

The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the
large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning
has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A
continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is
anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge
poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward
ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to
become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as
the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast
track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the
adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous
forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track
guidance envelope.

The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an
inner core, which would likely support further intensification today
as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible
complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over
the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting
factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification
and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas
will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters
by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by
Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose
its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

/div]
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#85 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:02 am

Nascent eye has formed on visible.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#86 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:13 am

36 hours of intensification is plenty
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#87 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:48 am

Shear is visibly increasing over the system. Outflow looks less healthy from the northeast part of the storm.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#88 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:35 am

Big difference compared to last night. Lots of dry air wrapping inside the core in the latest MW pass though.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#89 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:39 am

Blas is greatly outperforming my expectations. ULAC is better aligned than I expected, and there may be enough divergence to fend off whatever increase in sub-outflow level shear occurs as a result of ULAC misalignment. The SHIPS output continues to call for an increase in shear soon, however. With its current structure, Blas has a good chance at reaching Category 2 intensity, but the vortex may be too tilted to intensify further.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#90 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:56 pm

Yeah recency bias got me with this one. I mean there was a time where storms off Mexico over 31C waters would easily become hurricanes. Hasn't been the case the past 3 years lol.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#91 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:00 pm

Before genesis I didn’t think this would be more than a mid grade Ts. Threw me off too.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#92 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:24 pm

Dry air keeping a lid on it but this is one pretty hurricane though.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#93 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:33 pm

A. 02E (BLAS)

B. 15/1730Z

C. 15.0N

D. 103.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...A LLCC EMBDEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. THE
MET IS 4.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/1147Z 14.6N 102.5W SSMIS
15/1314Z 14.7N 102.6W SSMIS


...HOSLEY
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#94 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Dry air keeping a lid on it but this is one pretty hurricane though.

https://i.imgur.com/aBMaez9.gif

In what way is dry air limiting this?
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#95 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:51 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Dry air keeping a lid on it but this is one pretty hurricane though.

https://i.imgur.com/aBMaez9.gif

In what way is dry air limiting this?

The eye not clearing out.
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#96 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:52 pm

EPAC is producing some pretty systems so far. Meanwhile we get Alex lol
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#97 Postby zzh » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:55 pm

Image
Easterly shear seems pretty strong
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#98 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:00 pm

EP, 02, 2022061518, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1029W, 75, 980, HU
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#99 Postby zzh » Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:05 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: BLAS - Hurricane

#100 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:10 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SmprcYt.gif
Easterly shear seems pretty strong

Yeah, about 20 knots. But the inner core is healthy.
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