EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922022 06/14/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 64 68 66 65 59 55 54 53 49 45 40
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 64 68 66 65 59 55 54 53 49 45 40
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 55 53 49 44 39 38 36 33 30 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 9 16 25 25 25 30 22 17 17 11 10 2 7 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 3 1 2 4 -2 -5 -4 0 3 6
SHEAR DIR 4 24 86 96 97 86 89 85 84 80 47 26 21 21 95 200 158
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 27.8 25.6 25.6 25.8 24.7 24.5 24.8 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 152 153 152 150 150 151 142 118 117 119 108 106 109 102
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.2 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 77 79 79 84 82 78 76 72 69 65 64 57 55 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 17 17 17 20 23 22 24 23 22 23 25 24 22 19
850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 57 64 77 106 113 98 102 107 111 83 87 85 74 83 69
200 MB DIV 31 27 33 52 72 120 148 127 124 85 72 8 10 -12 -25 -18 -26
700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 2 3 6 0 -3 -10 -10 -7 -4 -1 -1 4 0
LAND (KM) 465 434 404 399 395 374 344 345 389 430 529 543 527 558 622 718 773
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 2 0 1 3 4 7 9 9 8 6 5 6 6 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 35 31 28 27 27 22 18 15 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 27. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 10. 11. 14. 11. 10. 10. 11. 9. 7. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 26. 34. 38. 36. 35. 29. 25. 24. 23. 19. 15. 10.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 102.6

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/14/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 27.2% 20.8% 19.3% 0.0% 18.1% 15.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 13.0% 43.3% 24.1% 16.1% 8.7% 19.4% 35.0% 21.7%
Bayesian: 0.2% 14.5% 3.8% 0.9% 0.4% 5.5% 2.1% 1.3%
Consensus: 8.5% 28.3% 16.2% 12.1% 3.0% 14.3% 17.6% 7.6%
DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 10.0% 18.0% 33.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/14/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 140002
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 13/2330Z

C. 13.1N

D. 102.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN DT OF 2.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/2324Z 13.1N 102.5W SSMIS


...BROWN


e-TRaP

Awaiting Forecast and/or Microwave Imagery(K)

MTCSWA

Awaiting Data

[Yellow Evan]

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. This activity continues to show signs
of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development. A tropical depression is expected to
form during the next day or so while the system moves slowly
northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm surprised NHC didn't start advisories at 3z. Looks good on satellite imagery this evening...I think it's a depression now.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a 35 knot tropical storm too me. IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
The low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is becoming better defined and
thunderstorms are consolidating near the center. If these trends
continue, a tropical depression will likely form on Tuesday. This
system is forecast to move slowly northwestward off the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 140624
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 14/0600Z

C. 13.4N

D. 102.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND
PT=2.5. CONSIDERABLE INCR IN DEEP CONVECTION LAST 6 HR. FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[Subtrop]

EP, 02, 2022061406, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1024W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWO-E, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, TRANSITIONED, epA22022 to ep022022,

[Yellow Evan]

Conditions look decent in the short term but in about 18-36 hours, strongly easterly shear from a ULAC near Baja will tear this apart and I doubt the divergence will be enough for the storm and the ULAC to become better aligned. Probably ending up with something like Kevin last year honestly.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that NHC has
been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has now become
a tropical depression. Deep convection started to consolidate near
the center around 00Z, and it has increased and expanded since then.
In addition, the circulation appears better defined and
sufficiently meets the criteria needed for a tropical cyclone. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is a little lower than the
latest Dvorak estimates.

The depression is currently located a couple of hundred miles south
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and it is drifting
north-northwestward at 3 kt. This slow and likely erratic motion is
expected to continue for another 24 hours as the steering currents
remain weak, and the system is expected to remain close to, but
offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico during that time.
After that, however, a turn to the west-northwest with an increase
in forward speed is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. This motion should take the system gradually
away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Although there is
some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward
speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track
forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

The depression appears to be strengthening now, and this
intensification trend will likely continue for about 36 hours as
the system remains over warm water and in an environment of low to
moderate shear and high moisture. After that time, however, the
intensification rate is expected to slow due to an increase in
easterly shear, and gradual weakening is anticipated to commence
around day 3 when the system moves into strong shear and heads
toward progressively cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast
lies at the high end of the models in the short term, but falls
near the middle of the guidance envelope between 48 and 120 h.

Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.6N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.9N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 14.6N 103.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.1N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 15.5N 105.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 17.4N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

A. 02E (NONAME)

B. 14/1130Z

C. 13.9N

D. 102.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
2.5 BASED ON GRADUAL 24-HOUR DEVELOPMENT. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/0830Z 13.8N 102.4W AMSR2


...CLARK

[cycloneye]

TS Blas

EP, 02, 2022061412, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1021W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLAS, M

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 102.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of
Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding
in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection.
Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind
speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical
storm of the season.

The environment near Blas looks conducive for further
intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm
waters and generally light shear. However, increased northeasterly
shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level
anticyclone over Mexico. Model guidance is higher than the last
cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity
forecast matches that trend. Weakening should commence by the end
of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters.

Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering
beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico. The
tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to
the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a
ridge building over Mexico. This motion should take the system
gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Similar
to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models,
especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the
overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various
consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast.

Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Bucci

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 141800
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLAS)

B. 14/1730Z

C. 14.3N

D. 101.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE 3.0. FT
IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[cycloneye]

EP, 02, 2022061418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1020W, 45, 1000, TS

[Yellow Evan]

Trying to rotate convection and become much better stacked. Door for Blas to become a hurricane is probably opening.

[Kingarabian]

Agreed. Even easier on visible to see that this is developing a tight core. But we can still see the shear and dry environment to the N/NW of it.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

The convective organization of Tropical Storm Blas continues to
improve based on satellite imagery which shows a convective core
forming with a well-defined mid-level circulation. The initial wind
speed has been raised to 45 kt and is in agreement with Dvorak
estimates.

Future intensification of Blas is expected in the short-term
forecast. The high SSTs and low vertical wind shear provide the
baseline conditions for the storm to quickly intensify in the next
24 h, as indicated by statistical model guidance. Beyond this
timeframe, environmental conditions are expected to become
increasingly unfavorable as an upper-level anticyclone builds over
Mexico and increases the shear over Blas. The NHC intensity
forecast is higher in the short-term than the last cycle and
reflects the potential for quicker intensification.

Blas continues to drift northward and the NHC track forecast has
been shifted northward primarily due to initial storm motion and
position. By tomorrow Blas is expected to turn west-northwestward
and gradually accelerate due to a building ridge and continue that
motion for the next several days. Model guidance has trended
northward and faster, potentially due to a deeper tropical cyclone
circulation feeling the upper-level easterly flow. The NHC
forecast is shifted in that direction near or just south of the
consensus guidance.

Even though the system is forecast to remain off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico starting later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 102.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.3N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake