EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

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Nancy Smar
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EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:48 pm

92E INVEST 220611 0000 13.4N 95.2W EPAC 20 1008

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:57 pm

Not seeing the unanimous support for a hurricane that we had with Agatha with a long lead time. Of course things could still swing that way over time but I'm thinking moderate-strong TS for now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:16 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:35 pm

Looked better 24 hours ago.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:52 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing some disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:53 am

GFS now keeping this offshore but also makes it a hurricane again.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:25 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 11, 2022 11:51 am

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GFS further west and well offshore now but makes this stronger than ever.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 11, 2022 2:04 pm

HWRF has it as a cat 3.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 11, 2022 6:42 pm

No change.

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
Shower activity has changed little in organization since yesterday
in association with a broad low pressure area located a couple of
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:54 pm

I’m not seeing much signs of life with this invest. We’re probably >2 days away from genesis.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 12, 2022 6:43 am

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico is producing a more concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms this morning. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday or Wednesday
while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#13 Postby MHC Tracking » Sun Jun 12, 2022 12:49 pm

An overall uptrend in intensity can be noted on the 18z GEFS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:02 pm

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a broad low pressure area located a few hundred
miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday
or Wednesday while the system moves slowly northwestward off the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:02 pm

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a broad low pressure area located a few hundred
miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday
or Wednesday while the system moves slowly northwestward off the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:09 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#17 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:19 pm

:uarrow:
Still about 15-20kts of upper level shear over it.
15kts of mid shear as well.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:20 pm

Looks much better that the past 2 days.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:Looks much better that the past 2 days.

Realistically won't develop until it's past 105W and away from the bulk of the shear. By that time it'll be fighting time over warm SSTs. So I'm on the fence with this one.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:48 pm

This has convection now at least but probably needs another D-Min or two to develop a well-defined center.
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