EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#141 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:41 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia continues to become better organized, as a ragged central
dense overcast has developed and widespread outer convective bands
are forming in the southeastern semicircle. Unfortunately, no
microwave overpasses are available to show what the structure is
under the overcast. The various subjective and objective intensity
estimates have not yet responded to the improved cloud pattern, so
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 45 kt.

Celia is now in an environment of light to moderate shear, and these
conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period.
However, the cyclone is running out of warm water over which to
strengthen. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the forecast
track decrease to about 26C in about 12 h, are in the 25-26C range
from 12-48 h, and then decrease below 25C after 60 h. Based on this
and the intensity guidance, Celia should strengthen for 24-36 h, and
the intensity forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane
during this time. After 36 h, the cyclone is expected to slowly
weaken as it moves over the cooler water, eventually decaying to a
remnant low over 21C SSTs by 120 h. The new intensity forecast
follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance and shows lower
intensity than the previous forecast from 36-96 h.

The initial motion is now 295/8. A mid-level ridge over the
southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to build
westward to the north of Celia over the next few days, and this
should keep the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward with
some variation in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast
period, a more westward motion is forecast as the weakening cyclone
is steered more by low-level easterly flow. The guidance has
shifted a little north since the previous advisory, and the new
forecast track lies slightly north of the old track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.7N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 19.0N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#142 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:45 pm

Yikes dry air has significantly degraded it.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#143 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:27 am

Looks like an eye looking at loops just an extremely ragged one.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#144 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:25 am

:uarrow: Dry slot.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#145 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:46 am

TXPZ23 KNES 240639
TCSENP

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 24/0530Z

C. 16.6N

D. 108.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT ARE
3.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN CLOUD FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/0200Z 16.7N 107.6W SSMIS
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#146 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:49 am

Center is about 16.6N and 107.7W-107.9W ish. Well east of that eye like appearance. Very likely it's a dry slot and this thing still has more organizing to do.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#147 Postby al78 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:31 am

Celia 2010 was a storm where models refused to intensify and it blew up to a category 5. Is Celia 2022 going to be the opposite, a storm where intensification to a hurricane is continually forecast and it never gets going?
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#148 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:24 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Celia is on a gradual
strengthening trend, with an area of convection near and east of
the center. The latest microwave data, a 0200 UTC F-17 pass, showed
a small inner core in the 91-GHz channel. The subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates range between 45 and 55 kt, and
the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt.

Wind shear over the storm is slowly decreasing, and Celia has a
short window in the next day or so where environmental conditions
are expected to be favorable for additional strengthening. Beyond
about 48 h, the system is expected to be over increasingly cooler
waters and encountering a drier airmass. These factors will
cause Celia to begin weakening and eventually transition to a
remnant by the end of the forecast period. The official intensity
forecast follows the overall model consensus and is quite similar
to the previous advisory.

Celia continues its west-northwestward trek at about 7 kt around a
mid-level ridge located over the southern United States. This
motion is expected to slightly slow over the next couple days
before increasing in speed at the end of the forecast period as
the ridge builds to its north. The NHC track forecast is a bit
faster than the previous advisory and lies close to track model
consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 17.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.3N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.7N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 21.3N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#149 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:54 am

EP, 03, 2022062412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1088W, 55, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CELIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#150 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:18 am

You certainly have to give her credit for trying. :lol:
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#151 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:20 am

55 knots or 60 knots is what I think the nhc goes with at 11:00 EDT. 55knots is what best track was at 8:00 EDT but the storm has improved since then.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#152 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:43 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Little by little, Celia is becoming better organized. Deep-layer
shear has decreased markedly from a few days ago, but the cyclone
still appears to be in the process of mixing out some of the dry
air that got into the circulation. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates now range from 55 to 65 kt, therefore
Celia's estimated intensity is increased to 55 kt on this advisory.

Celia is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (290/7 kt) to the
south of a mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern
United States and northern Mexico. The ridge is not particularly
strong, however, and this pattern is likely to cause Celia to slow
down further to around 5 kt during the next 12-24 hours. After 24
hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward,
causing Celia to gradually accelerate through day 5. The guidance
envelope is tightly packed, and the updated NHC track forecast is
unchanged from the 09z forecast.

Shear diagnoses from the SHIPS model indicate that deep-layer shear
is likely to be less than 10 kt during the entire 5-day forecast
period. However, the limiting factor to Celia's intensity will be
sea surface temperatures. Celia still has an opportunity to
strengthen further, possibly to a hurricane, during the next 24
hours or so before it begins to cross the tight SST gradient near
Socorro Island. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours over
colder waters, and Celia is likely to lose its deep convection and
become post-tropical by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#153 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:54 am

Image

Good structure just dry air has been giving it issues. I think this will briefly become a hurricane overnight.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#154 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:03 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#155 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:01 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#156 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:48 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 241824
TCSENP

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 24/1730Z

C. 16.8N

D. 109.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...11/10 BANDING RESULTS IN DT OF 4.0. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE 24 HOUR TREND GIVES A MET OF 3.5. PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#157 Postby zzh » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:54 pm

Image
EP, 03, 2022062418, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1087W, 60, 992, TS,

No way this is 60kt.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#158 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:00 pm

ASCAT does this once and a while and gives a really low estimate when satellite estimates support hurricane intensity in which NHC at least tends to toss out.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#159 Postby KirbyDude25 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:ASCAT does this once and a while and gives a really low estimate when satellite estimates support hurricane intensity in which NHC at least tends to toss out.

That's what I thought when I saw that. Isn't ASCAT generally more useful for invests or weak storms where it can better assess intensity (besides providing a good idea of the system's spin and organization)?
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#160 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:32 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CELIA EP032022 06/24/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 75 79 81 81 73 64 53 41 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 75 79 81 81 73 64 53 41 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 60 65 68 69 69 69 67 61 53 43 35 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 9 9 13 4 4 3 4 6 12 13 11 11 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 0 0 -6 -3 0 3 0 2 0 0 3 6 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 68 83 70 60 60 56 74 88 222 223 243 179 219 205 228 N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 25.1 25.9 25.0 24.8 23.3 22.1 20.9 20.8 21.9 21.8 21.0 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 114 111 112 121 113 111 96 83 71 70 81 79 70 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 80 79 71 70 65 66 61 57 53 48 45 39 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 27 29 30 31 30 29 27 24 22 19 17 14 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 64 75 83 78 102 110 121 102 97 88 70 63 56 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 136 138 111 108 100 68 41 -10 -21 -22 0 1 -16 -11 -9 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 0 0 -3 -3 -9 -1 -8 -3 -4 0 2 4 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 474 501 529 557 549 525 562 666 754 912 1039 1205 1394 1573 1676 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.0 22.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.7 112.1 113.7 115.7 117.9 120.2 122.7 125.1 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 7 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -28. -33. -35. -38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 19. 21. 21. 13. 4. -7. -19. -29. -39. -46. -53. -55. -57.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.0 108.7

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/24/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.69 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 25.6% 42.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 18.6% 28.5% 14.0% 9.8% 3.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Bayesian: 1.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 15.3% 23.8% 4.9% 3.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
DTOPS: 29.0% 47.0% 37.0% 25.0% 21.0% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/24/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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