EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#161 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:40 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Celia has the appearance of becoming better organized, with
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of
T4.0 all suggesting it's at hurricane strength. However, two
recent scatterometer passes only showed winds as high as 35-40 kt,
so any strengthening of the wind field is apparently lagging the
improved convective structure. Because of this large discrepancy
in estimates, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The
scatterometer data also indicate that Celia is asymmetric, with no
tropical-storm-force winds on the west side.

Celia's speed has slowed further, and the initial motion estimate
is 285/5 kt. This is about the slowest Celia is expected to move,
and its forward speed is forecast to gradually increase over the
next five days as the ridge to the north strengthens and expands
westward. There are no significant changes to the track forecast
reasoning on this cycle, and the updated NHC track prediction is
basically an update of the morning forecast.

Celia still has a small window of time for the wind field to
strengthen and catch up to the satellite presentation, and the NHC
forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane in the next 12
to 24 hours. This forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid.
However, cooler waters ahead of the storm are expected to induce
weakening after 36 hours, and Celia is likely to become
post-tropical by day 4 when it loses its deep convection.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.2N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.6N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 19.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 20.2N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1800Z 21.9N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#162 Postby zzh » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:49 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#163 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:44 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 250002
TCSENP

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 17.4N

D. 109.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. MET=4.0 AND
PT=3.5. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY LAST 6 HR. FT IS
BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION AND IRREG/WANING
CENTRAL CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2008Z 17.2N 108.7W AMSR2


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#164 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:00 pm

No hurricane.

EP, 03, 2022062500, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1093W, 55, 993, TS
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#165 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:42 pm

Is now forecast to not become a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Core convection, while waning somewhat over Celia this evening,
remains fairly well-organized, with obvious banding features
wrapping around the western semi-circle of the tropical cyclone.
Several microwave passes, including a GPM pass at 0042 UTC also
depict this organization, with an attempt at a banding-type
eye feature open to the southeast. The latest round of satellite
estimates are mostly unchanged from earlier today, but given the
previous lackluster scatterometer data, the initial intensity has
been held at 55 kt this advisory.

Celia continues to move to the west-northwest with a current motion
at 300/6 kt. The forward motion of the cyclone is expected to
gradually increase by early next week as northward mid-level ridging
strengthens and expands westward. Once again there are few changes
to the track forecast from the prior cycle, and the latest NHC
forecast is just a hint faster, blending the reliable consensus aids
TVCE and HCCA.

Per the latest SHIPS guidance, Celia is now over sub 26 C
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). These SSTs are expected to remain
between 25-26 C over the next 36 hours as Celia passes over the cold
wake of Blas, which moved over this general location a week ago.
While vertical wind shear is expected to remain low (below 10 kt)
with sufficently high mid-level moisture, Celia's radial wind-field
has become diffuse on its eastern side, without a distinct radius of
maximum wind. This structural change is partially related to the
ongoing convection well away from Celia's core to the southeast,
associated with monsoonal flow over warmer SSTs. The GFS and SHIPS
guidance still insist on Celia becoming a hurricane, while the most
recent HWRF/HMON runs (which are atmosphere-ocean coupled) indicate
weakening. A compromise of these two possibilities is to indicate
only slight additional strengthening for Celia over the next 12-24
hours, with gradual weakening beginning thereafter. The latest NHC
intensity forecast lies between IVCN and HCCA guidance and no longer
makes Celia a hurricane. As the storm moves over increasing cool
SSTs, it is expected to gradually lose its convection, becoming a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. This status could
occur sooner than forecast, as suggested by the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.8N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.2N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 21.8N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:54 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#167 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:29 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

The convective organization of Celia has not improved over the
past several hours. While banding features are still present,
cloud top temperatures near the center are warming. Given
the mixed satellite signals, the initial intensity is
held at 55 kt and this could be generous.

Celia is now encountering more marginal sea surface temperatures
(SSTs), slightly below 26 C. It appears the system has run
out of time for further intensification. While the shear remains
low, the atmosphere is gradually becoming more stable and dry.
This should result in Celia weakening and later this weekend,
losing convection in 2 or 3 days. The official intensity
forecast is reduced from the previous one, on the lower end of the
guidance since Celia has been under-performing.

The system is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. This motion is
expected to continue for the next few days, with a gradual increase
in forward speed as the storm is steered by a building mid-level
ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope and only minimal changes have been made from the previous
track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 18.0N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 20.6N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 22.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#168 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:34 am

This is an epic epac moment
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#169 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:46 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Celia's convective organization is slightly better this morning,
with a broken ring of cold cloud tops noted in infrared imagery.
However, a recent SSMIS microwave pass shows that the near-core
convection is limited to the southwest of the center. The storm has
extensive convective banding within the eastern and southeastern
parts of the circulation. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain
3.5 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt.

Celia took a temporary turn toward the northwest overnight, but the
motion appears to have settled out to west-northwestward, or 300/6
kt. Mid-level ridging to the north is expected to keep Celia on a
west-northwestward motion for the next 4 days or so, with a gradual
increase in forward speed. As a weaker, shallower system, the
remnant low should turn westward by day 5. The GFS is a little
slower than the other models, but otherwise the model guidance is
tightly packed. Therefore, no significant changes were made to the
previous forecast.

Even though deep-layer shear is now low, the thermodynamic
environment has kept the storm from strengthening over the past day
or so. Celia's center is now over 26 degrees Celsius water and
heading toward even colder waters, and therefore gradual weakening
is anticipated during the next few days. Celia is likely to cease
producing organized deep convection and thus become a post-tropical
low by day 3. The updated intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 18.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#170 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:23 pm

Honestly ive been hating on Celia for a little while. But the wide EPAC basin picture shows that this is probably or has been a hurricane despite the lack of deep convection near the center.

Image

This type of banding and outflow is above tropical storm threshold.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#171 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:26 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#172 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:43 pm

Socorro Island observations have left a lot to be desired wind wise but the pressure is likely around 987 mbar or so. I'm very conflicted on how strong Celia really is.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#173 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:24 pm

They may review Celia at post season analysis to see if it was a hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#174 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:56 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Celia passed just south of Socorro Island this afternoon. Microwave
data and conventional satellite imagery indicate the inner-core
convection has become fragmented into small bands around the
low-level center. The deepest convection associated with the storm
is occurring in bands over 200 n mi east and southeast of the main
circulation. A blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and
TAFB supports an initial intensity of 50 kt, which could still be
generous based on the latest objective intensity aids and wind
observations from Socorro Island. Unfortunately, no recent ASCAT
data was available for Celia.

The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward, or 295/7 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed, as a mid-level ridge to
the north of Celia should keep the cyclone moving to the
west-northwest for the next several days. As Celia becomes a weaker
and shallower system, it is forecast to turn westward and accelerate
a bit within the low-level flow by days 4-5. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one with no major changes.

Celia is now centered north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and the latest
track forecast brings the system into an increasingly unfavorable
thermodynamic environment through early next week. Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Celia is
likely to lose its organized deep convection and become a
post-tropical low by Tuesday. Then, the remnant low is expected to
spin down over cooler waters within a drier, more stable
environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the previous advisory and the various intensity consensus aids,
including IVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.6N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.5N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.9N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 22.6N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#175 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:14 pm

Starting to think this storm was just 45-50 knots based on the wind observations which give credibility to ASCAT.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#176 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:29 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#177 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:43 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

While Celia continues to maintain a relatively symmetric convective
appearance on satellite imagery, the coldest convective cloud tops
are gradually warming as the storm slowly succumbs to cooler ocean
waters underneath. A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates
still support an initial intensity of 50 kt, though I suspect this
remains generous and hopefully overnight scatterometer data can
provide additional assessment of the wind-field around the storm.
Sea-surface temperatures will continue gradually decreasing as the
system moves into an increasingly stable environment. Thus, gradual
weakening is expected to continue. The latest NHC forecast now
anticipates Celia will lose its remaining convection in about 48
hours, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The
intensity forecast shows a bit faster rate of weakening, largely
discounting the recent GFS solutions which unrealistically keep deep
central convection near the center over a very unfavorable
thermodynamic environment.

The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward at a bit faster
pace, or 290/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same, as
mid-level ridging should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward
heading. A turn westward at the end of the storm's life is
anticipated as it becomes a shallow remnant low, steered primarily
by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is nearly
identical to the previous forecast, though now shows dissipation in
120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.1N 112.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.4N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/1200Z 21.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 22.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#178 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:38 am

cycloneye wrote:They may review Celia at post season analysis to see if it was a hurricane.

Agreed.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#179 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:51 am

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:They may review Celia at post season analysis to see if it was a hurricane.

Agreed.


Did have an impressive structure, that of a strong TS or minimal hurricane. Splitting hairs either way. I wonder if we this could be the first year since 2003 with no majors. We know how it goes though. Any old mjo pulse would likely generate a burst consisting of at least one
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#180 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:57 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:They may review Celia at post season analysis to see if it was a hurricane.

Agreed.


Did have an impressive structure, that of a strong TS or minimal hurricane. Splitting hairs either way. I wonder if we this could be the first year since 2003 with no majors. We know how it goes though. Any old mjo pulse would likely generate a burst consisting of at least one


Good odds we'll see a major hurricane this season. Maybe later on in the season. That being said, the Atlantic is looking extremely ominous and La Nina forcing is beginning to reintensify.
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