EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#201 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:50 pm

EP, 03, 2022062700, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1146W, 50, 995, TS
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#202 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:53 pm

GMI
Image
Image

Almost certainly have to upgrade it in the offseason if they don't do so here.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#203 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:53 pm

Image

Eye open to the south. Some dry air got in.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#204 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:55 pm


Yeah. But it has an eye. Eye means hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#205 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:15 pm

Up to 50kt.

EP, 03, 2022062700, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1146W, 50, 995, TS
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#206 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:27 pm

Quite possibly one of the best looking 50 MPH systems I have ever seen.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#207 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:39 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Quite possibly one of the best looking 50 MPH systems I have ever seen.


Hard agree, amazing beautiful curvature
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#208 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:40 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Unexpectedly, the satellite presentation of Celia has improved this
evening. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed a distinct mid-level
eye with a ring of deep convection surrounding the center of the
cyclone. Infrared cloud top temperatures near and over the center
have cooled during the past several hours, and overall the cloud
pattern appears more organized than earlier today. The initial
intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the objective SATCON
estimate (46 kt) and consensus T3.5/55 kt Dvorak classifications
from SAB and TAFB.

Celia is still moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt, as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge that extends over the eastern North
Pacific. This general motion is expected to continue during the next
several days until Celia dissipates. The track guidance is still
tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very
close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Despite the recent uptick in intensity, Celia is still expected to
weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler waters and
into a drier, more stable environment. Model-simulated satellite
imagery suggests that Celia will struggle to maintain deep organized
convection by Tuesday, and so the NHC forecast still calls for the
cyclone to become post-tropical in 36 h. Then, the system will
continue weakening as it gradually spins down over sub-22 deg C
waters. By late Thursday, the remnant low is forecast to open into a
trough and dissipate.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 20.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 20.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 22.1N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 23.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 23.9N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#209 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:25 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Celia appears to be deteriorating based on geostationary
satellite imagery. The storm continues to have small bursts of
convection on the western and southern portion of the circulation,
however any significant convection in the northern semicircle has
disappeared. A scatterometer pass over the inner core at 0430 UTC
showed only a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, mostly in
the northwest quadrant of the storm, with peak winds of only 35-40
kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt to
account for potential undersampling. Dynamic and statistical model
guidance all forecast Celia to gradually weaken as the system moves
over cooler waters and into a dry, stable environment. The
official forecast predicts the system will become a post-tropical
remnant low by 36 h, when it will likely be devoid of deep
convection, and dissipated within a few days.

The storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge
extending over the eastern North Pacific is expected to continue
steering Celia at this approximate speed and direction until the
system dissipates. The NHC forecast is quite similar to the
previous forecast advisory and remains within the tightly
clustered model guidance.

Despite not becoming a hurricane, Celia is now tied for the 5th
longest-lasting June tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 20.4N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z 23.8N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#210 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:44 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a single curved
band of deep convection in the south semi-circle of the cyclone.
Over the past several hours, this banding feature has decreased in
areal extent, and the cloud tops have warmed. A 0945 UTC AMSR2
microwave image revealed a vertically tilted structure with the
surface circulation displaced to the southeast of the mid-level
feature. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimate T numbers and a
recent SATCON member consensus have decreased. Therefore,
the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.

Celia should continue to spin down slowly during the next few days
while traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures. Inhibiting
thermodynamic environmental conditions are also expected to
contribute to its eventual dissipation toward the end of the
week. The NHC forecast is similar to last night's advisory and
closely resembles a blend of the IVCN and HCCA model intensity
predictions.

Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
295/9 kt, and the system is embedded in the mid-level steering flow
generated by a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone.
Little change in motion and forward speed is expected until
dissipation. The official track forecast is not much different
from
the previous one and lies in the middle of the model guidance suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 20.8N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#211 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:43 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Celia's rapidly deteriorating cloud pattern consists of a
fragmented curved band located in the northeast quadrant of the
tropical cyclone. A 1704 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated
a couple of 35 kt peak winds in that banding feature, and
the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt in deference to this
surface wind data.

Celia is expected to continue traversing cool 24C waters through
the period. This negative contribution and a stable surrounding
air mass should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours. The official intensity
forecast is based on a blend of the various intensity consensus
guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt. A mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of Celia should
keep this direction and forward speed through dissipation toward
the end of the week. The NHC track forecast is an update
of the previous one and lies close to the reliable NOAA HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 20.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 21.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 22.3N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 23.0N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#212 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:04 pm

Lack of stratocumulus marine layer surrounding it is liking providing a weaker and more aloft inversion layer that is allowing Celia to sustain convection over cooler SSTs than you'd expect in this basin.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#213 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:05 pm

677
WTPZ43 KNHC 280240
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 PM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Celia's satellite appearance has changed little during the past
several hours. Its center was partially exposed in the last visible
satellite images of the day, but it appears the center has moved a
bit closer to a curved band of convection that wraps around the
northwestern portion of its circulation. Based on earlier
scatterometer data and consensus T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classifications
from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The cyclone remains on a west-northwestward heading (290/9 kt). A
steering ridge to the north of Celia should keep the cyclone moving
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast is very
close to the previous one. This forecast track brings Celia into a
more stable environment and over cooler waters, which will cause the
cyclone to struggle to maintain its convective organization.
Model-simulated satellite imagery suggests Celia will lose all
convection within the next 12-24 h, and the official NHC forecast
calls for degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low by late
Tuesday and continued weakening through midweek. The remnant low
should open into a trough and dissipate by early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 21.3N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 22.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 22.7N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 23.3N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 23.8N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#214 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:46 am

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Celia's convective organization has been gradually decaying
overnight, and only a few small cells with cloud-top temperatures
below -60 C remain near the center. Subjective satellite estimates
are gradually decreasing, and the latest objective satellite
estimate from ADT is down to T2.0/30 kt. Assuming the wind-field has
spun-down further from the earlier scatterometer-derived wind
values, Celia is downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of
30 kt.

The cyclone's motion remains west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The
low- to mid-level steering should keep Celia on this same general
track for the next several days. This track brings Celia over even
cooler waters into a more stable environment, and if more organized
convection does not soon return over Celia's vortex, it is likely to
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The latest NHC track and
intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory,
though the system is now made a post-tropical remnant low in 12 h,
with the remnant low opening up into a trough by Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 21.8N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0600Z 23.2N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 23.8N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 24.2N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#215 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:31 am

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

The slow but steady decay of Celia has continued this morning. The
coldest cloud tops near the center of Celia have warmed to around
-40 deg C, a sign that it is no longer producing organized deep
convection. The depression is moving over water colder than 22 deg
C, so further decay is inevitable. It is likely that Celia will
become a post-tropical remnant low later today.

The estimated intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Weakening
is likely during the next few days while Celia is steered
west-northwestward by a ridge extending southwest from the
southwestern United States. Various dynamical models indicate that
Celia will dissipate into a trough in about 2-3 days. No changes of
note were made to the NHC forecast, which is near the multi-model
consensus for both track and intensity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

#216 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:40 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Organized deep convection associated with Celia ceased entirely
earlier today and the cyclone is now a remnant low. Therefore, this
is the last advisory. A partial ASCAT pass near 1800 UTC indicated
winds of 25-30 kt, so the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. Celia
should gradually weaken as it spins down over cold water during the
next couple of days, and all of the dynamical guidance indicates it
will dissipate by late Thursday or early Friday. The cyclone is
moving west-northwestward near 9 kt, and should continue on that
general heading at a slightly slower forward speed until it
dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 22.6N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/0600Z 23.3N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 24.0N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 24.5N 125.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 24.8N 126.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

#217 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:48 pm

This had convection at 9z? Is the NHC no longer doing the 12 hour without deep convection rule?
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