ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#21 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I would wager.... looking at radar and sat... we already have a TD.

Yeah there's rotation evident on radar, and a nice convective burst just fired roughly where the nascent center would be. I'd argue this is very close to being classifiable. Very small system.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:48 pm

Position at the convection.

AL, 93, 2022061500, , BEST, 0, 120N, 827W, 20, 1009, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#23 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:20 pm

Well on its way. few more convective pulsing phases and should be a TS when recon gets there (likely sooner). assuming it does not loopy loop inland while its stationary.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#24 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:05 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I would wager.... looking at radar and sat... we already have a TD.

Yeah there's rotation evident on radar, and a nice convective burst just fired roughly where the nascent center would be. I'd argue this is very close to being classifiable. Very small system.

https://i.ibb.co/jvmM0X0/goes16-93-L-band13-202206150005.png

Well since I made this post convective activity has weakened quite a bit (probably an effect of DMIN). I guess I was fooled earlier. Not sure how much time this has left.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#25 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:08 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I would wager.... looking at radar and sat... we already have a TD.

Yeah there's rotation evident on radar, and a nice convective burst just fired roughly where the nascent center would be. I'd argue this is very close to being classifiable. Very small system.

https://i.ibb.co/jvmM0X0/goes16-93-L-band13-202206150005.png

Well since I made this post convective activity has weakened quite a bit (probably an effect of DMIN). I guess I was fooled earlier. Not sure how much time this has left.



Pulsing up and down many times during this phase is very normal.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#26 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:47 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#27 Postby Hammy » Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:04 am

Looks like whatever was there is now inland based on radar
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#28 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:39 am

A mid-level rotation does not make it qualify for upgrade to a TD. It had a brief shot yesterday. 06Z GFS looks more realistic - no development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:52 am

Down.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Satellite and radar images suggest that a small area of low pressure
is located along the east coast of Nicaragua accompanied by a
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is
expected to meander slowly today, then drift northwestward along the
coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras later this week. Some slow
development of this system is still possible if it moves back over
water. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to
investigate the system today has been canceled. Regardless of
development, the low could produce periods of heavy rainfall across
portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras through late this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin/Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#30 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:10 am

Like I said a few days ago, disregard the new crazy American uncle, the GFS, if the Euro is not onboard with development.
BTW, being cruising in the Caribbean since Saturday, lots of Saharan dust, yesterday we could barely see Puerto Rico just 15 miles from it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#31 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:44 am

All models in good agreement now - no development. Its best shot was yesterday. Good. Bonnie can wait until August. Of course, GFS does have a hurricane striking the upper TX coast in 2 weeks. I'm sure it's going to be correct.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:10 am

AL, 93, 2022061512, , BEST, 0, 120N, 836W, 20, 1009, DB


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#33 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:50 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:50 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure located inland over eastern Nicaragua is
accompanied by a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.
Additional development is unlikely during the next day or so while
the low remains inland. The system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some
development is possible on Friday. Some development is also
possible over the southern Bay of Campeche by early next week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin/Brown


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#35 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:44 pm

Beginning to think that Invest 93L will not make it to the Bay of Campeche or even the Gulf of Honduras.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#36 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:29 am

Finally a circ begininng to refrom offshore east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border area. broad still . convection must keep building before the seabreezes disrupt the low level NW flow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#37 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:22 am

I think 93L's chances to development have to be pretty low now. With 93E on its way to development it will probably shear this disturbance unless there is enough distance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:27 pm

Bye.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure located inland
over eastern Honduras. Some slight development is possible tonight
through Friday while the disturbance moves westward over the Gulf
of Honduras. Subsequent development is unlikely once the system
moves inland over northern Central America and southeastern Mexico
Friday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over Honduras, Belize and southeastern Mexico through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Papin
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#39 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jun 16, 2022 3:23 pm

93L had a chance, but it's now a goner.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#40 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Thu Jun 16, 2022 3:42 pm

Iceresistance wrote:93L had a chance, but it's now a goner.

I wouldn't say it's a goner just yet. While the potential for a more intense system is almost certainly gone given that the previous center of the system entrenched itself inland before gradually spinning down, the surface trough/tropical wave-esque area of disturbed weather is still quite convectively active and currently positioned over some of the highest OHC waters in the entire basin. Given its slow forward speed and the overall favorable environment, there still exists a small opportunity for a quick spin-up before it begins interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula, and models are still indicating that the northern edge of the surface trough could find a way back over water briefly in the Bay of Campeche before moving back inland over Mexico. Development is by no means expected, but that doesn't mean it's impossible.

However, it cannot be overstated that TCG is a low probability development on either side of said peninsula, and so the diminishing of odds given and the reduction of area covered by the NHC in the most recent TWO is not a surprise. It is quite clear that 93L has a long road towards any sort of development beyond being a unnamed rainmaker for the region.

Still, I find it hard to look away from an area of disturbed weather over warm water in a relatively low-shear environment, all underneath a dominant high pressure area centered over the southern half of the CONUS. After all, a "ridge over troubled waters" is a oft-touted saying for a reason.
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