ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:29 am

AL, 93, 2022061412, , BEST, 0, 116N, 817W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, al772022 to al932022,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#2 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:53 am

Organizing quite quickly this morning. If the east pac invest continues to stay weak then 93l/soon td/TS will likley make it mid way up the Yucatan before turning west from the ridge. which would put into the BOC.

the interaction with the vorticity with the east pac invest/gyre helps force this system to turn west sooner per the models.

So watch how the east pac invest involves. right now looks like a losing battle.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:15 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:25 am

That SAT image makes it look like it is going to slam into Nicaragua.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:20 am

Plane will fly on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. Follow the data at the 93L recon thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:45 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#7 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:34 pm

Latest ASCAT seems to show some development
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:34 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:44 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a small
area of low pressure has formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further
development of this system is possible while it drifts northwestward
near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and it could become a
tropical depression later this week if the disturbance remains over
water. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system tomorrow if necessary. Regardless of
development, the low could produce periods of heavy rainfall across
portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras through late this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake/Bucci
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:47 pm

You can see the swirl under the higher clouds. The low appears stationary. The illusion of westward movement seems to be due to the thunderstorms expanding west toward the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:58 pm

The LLC that developed overnight and this morning has just barely drifted out of the radar dead zone.

Run the loop zoom in and the cell motion is easily noted. also fairly close to the radar. it is going to bounce around quite a bit still.

http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/ra ... ist%5B%5D=

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:09 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:36 pm

AL, 93, 2022061418, , BEST, 0, 118N, 822W, 20, 1009, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#14 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 2:04 pm

Agree with Levi (Tropical Tidbits). Better than the NHC's 30% chance of development within 48 hrs. Will it move ashore into Nicaragua tomorrow? Maybe. Environment in its path is not very favorable for strengthening. 500mb high pressure anomaly centers itself right over SE TX by early next week, which would keep any system that makes it to the BoC moving west into southern Mexico, assuming it emerges into the BoC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:29 pm

Starting to tighten up on radar. curved inflow band. going to see quite a bit of loopy loops over the next 12 hours given the setup and gyre its in. convection should begin to really pop shortly

http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/ra ... tDelay=0.0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:56 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:21 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#18 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:55 pm

Think 93E is looking better, NHC also has it at 50/50 compared to 30/40 for 93L. If it develops first, 93L probably isn't going to go far...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:34 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a small
area of low pressure has formed in the far southwestern Caribbean
Sea, accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further
development of this system is possible while it drifts northwestward
near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and it could become a
tropical depression later this week if the disturbance remains over
water. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system tomorrow if necessary. Regardless of
development, the low could produce periods of heavy rainfall across
portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras through late this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:54 pm

I would wager.... looking at radar and sat... we already have a TD.
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