EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#681 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:41 pm

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Shear definitely getting to it now.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#682 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:42 pm

The most recent analog of this is Cesar-Douglas in 1996. When the storm is stronger in East Pacific compared to the Atlantic, I've seen this before, but it's rare. Cesar was a category 1 hurricane when it made landfall in Nicaragua, Cesar-Douglas peaked as a category 4 hurricane in East Pacific.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#683 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:08 pm

aspen wrote:I’m doubtful Bonnie will be able to recover from this EWRC. It is still going on after over 24 hours with no progress being made, and it’s looking more lopsided tonight. Shear will drop, but so will SSTs and RH. Bonnie might be in a damaged state where it ingests dry air and can’t take advantage of the lower shear.


It’s current structure isn’t one where I expect recovery to be that difficult and if you’ve been tracking a while, you know the basin has a reputation for deepening in the bolded. We’ll likely see some sort of re-intensification but whether it’s more the second intensification phase of Felicia 09 or Lester 16 remains to be seen.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#684 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:22 pm

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#685 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:46 am

TXPZ25 KNES 060603
TCSENP

A. 02L (BONNIE)

B. 06/0530Z

C. 15.9N

D. 107.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. MET=5.0 AND
PT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#686 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:21 am

04E BONNIE 220706 0600 15.8N 107.7W EPAC 90 968
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#687 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:27 am

Took a big hit last night but could be starting to bounce back. Looks to be in the process of attempting an annular structure. I wonder if it will be able to fend off drier air long enough to complete its ERC
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#688 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:33 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#689 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:34 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#690 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:43 am

TXPZ25 KNES 061215
TCSENP

A. 02L (BONNIE)

B. 06/1130Z

C. 16.4N

D. 108.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 10/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=3.5 MET=4.5 PT=4.0. EMBEDDED CENTER YIELDS A DT=4.0 HOWEVER
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#691 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:53 am

Still hanging on.

...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS...


The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to
make a comeback. This sudden intensification is expected to be
temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on
Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface
temperatures.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#692 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:15 am

Why does the NHC keep failing for this after all these years?
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#693 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:49 am

Impressive.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#694 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:09 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Why does the NHC keep failing for this after all these years?


That's an interesting comment since last time they were failing (I know you meant falling) by expecting a major that didn't happen. I suggest that there is no actual identifiable pattern, which is why intensity forecasts are so difficult.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#695 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:42 am

Too bad the storm ran out of warm water. It looked good.
Still looks good but doesn’t have long before cool waters really start to impact it.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#696 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:23 pm

Looking a lot less likely to me that this completes its ERC. That outer eye is huge and having trouble staying solid. With conditions getting worse from here on out I don’t see much chance
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#697 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:21 pm

tolakram wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Why does the NHC keep failing for this after all these years?


That's an interesting comment since last time they were failing (I know you meant falling) by expecting a major that didn't happen. I suggest that there is no actual identifiable pattern, which is why intensity forecasts are so difficult.


I was referring to how they often show weakening (abliet at a slower than normal rate) in low shear environments despite low SSTs of 26-27 and yet the storm often strengthens/re-strengthens. Iselle 2014, Darby and Lester 2016, Norman and Olivia 2018, and Linda 2021 are some examples of this.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#698 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:35 pm

TXPZ25 KNES 061755
TCSENP

A. 02L (BONNIE)

B. 06/1730Z

C. 16.3N

D. 109.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND
EMBEDDED IN DG FOR A DT=5.0 WITH 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#699 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:52 pm

EP, 04, 2022070618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1095W, 90, 972, HU
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#700 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:20 pm

Wow! Gotta hand it to Bonnie. That core sure recovered as soon as the northerly shear let up ever-so-slightly.
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