EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Looks like its starting to spin all the way down to 925mb, pretty clear change just in the last 3 hours

[MississippiWx]

This is incredible to be talking about in June. Definitely 2005 vibes with such low shear in the Caribbean this early. Interesting to see if this is a trend for the season.

Looking pretty promising for development.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Bro what IS this wave! I grossly underestimated it!.

[Category5Kaiju]

50% now.

Genuinely wouldn't be surprised if this thing forms even faster though

[weeniepatrol]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
as this system moves westward at around 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[ouragans]

Invest 94L
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 24, 2022:

Location: 7.5°N 27.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 70 nm

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection is waning as we approach dmin. The vorticity has increased.

[Blown Away]

June, July, August Climatology doesn't favor a CA TS/hurricane near Nicaragua... Take away August, Caser 1996 the only hurricane impact in this area during June & July...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward
at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the
Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I have to admit I don't know what to think about this one. I don't think I've ever seen quite as strong of a signal for a eastern Caribbean system this early in the season.

[CourierPR]

I have to admit I don't know what to think about this one. I don't think I've ever seen quite as strong of a signal for a eastern Caribbean system this early in the season.

It seems that climate change may be rewriting climatology.

[toad strangler]

I have to admit I don't know what to think about this one. I don't think I've ever seen quite as strong of a signal for a eastern Caribbean system this early in the season.

It seems that climate change may be rewriting climatology.

If it pans out it's a anomaly. Not new climatology.

[skyline385]

I have to admit I don't know what to think about this one. I don't think I've ever seen quite as strong of a signal for a eastern Caribbean system this early in the season.

It seems that climate change may be rewriting climatology.

If it pans out it's a anomaly. Not new climatology.

Been hearing that for the past few seasons, there is a reason NHC moved TWO issuance to May 15.

Philip also recently gave a conference on how Nino conditions are becoming more common, i posted it in the SST thread.

[toad strangler]

It seems that climate change may be rewriting climatology.

If it pans out it's a anomaly. Not new climatology.

Been hearing that for the past few seasons, there is a reason NHC moved TWO issuance to May 15.

Philip also recently gave a conference on how Nino conditions are becoming more common, i posted it in the SST thread.

I don't think this has anything to do with early season genesis in sub tropical areas like you see by a large margin in May. I'm sticking with anomaly. Sometimes the ducks align.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/drzyhSf.jpg
June, July, August Climatology doesn't favor a CA TS/hurricane near Nicaragua... Take away August, Caser 1996 the only hurricane impact in this area during June & July...

It seems like we're overdue for something like this to happen again.

Yes, something like this does happen. It's rare, but it doesn't mean it's not gonna happen again in the next several years, or maybe even next year.

[sponger]

I have to admit I don't know what to think about this one. I don't think I've ever seen quite as strong of a signal for a eastern Caribbean system this early in the season.

It seems that climate change may be rewriting climatology.

If it pans out it's a anomaly. Not new climatology.

Is it an anomaly or is it a sign of the increasing influence of the Grand Solar Minimum? We know it has fragmented jet streams and increased cosmic rays. We have almost zero research on how this may impact us for the next few decades.

[wxman57]

It seems that climate change may be rewriting climatology.

If it pans out it's a anomaly. Not new climatology.

Been hearing that for the past few seasons, there is a reason NHC moved TWO issuance to May 15.

Philip also recently gave a conference on how Nino conditions are becoming more common, i posted it in the SST thread.

Technology exists now that allows us to detect short-lived, weak storms far out to sea. That, and a combination of naming subtropical storms and a more liberal naming policy, in general, is why we are getting more early and pre-season storms. The average date of the first hurricane has been slipping a few days later in July, just about in early August now. Before the modern satellite era (1974), we likely missed many storms at sea.

Let's stay on-topic here.

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

If it pans out it's a anomaly. Not new climatology.

Been hearing that for the past few seasons, there is a reason NHC moved TWO issuance to May 15.

Philip also recently gave a conference on how Nino conditions are becoming more common, i posted it in the SST thread.

Technology exists now that allows us to detect short-lived, weak storms far out to sea. That, and a combination of naming subtropical storms and a more liberal naming policy, in general, is why we are getting more early and pre-season storms. The average date of the first hurricane has been slipping a few days later in July, just about in early August now. Before the modern satellite era (1974), we likely missed many storms at sea.

Let's stay on-topic here.

Here's the conference i posted in the SST thread, going back to topic on 94L now.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539745471953940480

[wxman57]

Scatterometer data indicate a broad, weak circulation, which is very common for waves that emerge off the west coast of Africa. It will begin accelerating to the west at 20 kts later today. That should limit low-level convergence until it moves past the eastern Caribbean. If I was to estimate development chances based solely on the chance the NHC will call it a TD or TS, then I'd say 35% within 48 hrs and 95% within the next 5-6 days. I think that unless it buries itself into South America (the remaining 5% chance), it'll be Bonnie. No doubt.