EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KirbyDude25]

https://imgur.com/7fncMsC

Isn't this thing supposed to be weakening? It looks almost as good as it did during its peak

[Yellow Evan]

If you didn't know any better, looking at satellite you'd think she's a major again.

Long time no see!

If it can sustain, I’d argue it is a major.

[weeniepatrol]

One more: I love the marine stratus nearby!

[Ntxw]

If you didn't know any better, looking at satellite you'd think she's a major again.

Long time no see!

If it can sustain, I’d argue it is a major.

Trying to be active in the tropical threads again!

Her eye has really warmed and improved, I think warrants major for that.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd say at least 100 knots.

[skyline385]

What a fighter!

Been saying for a while this will be a repeat of Felicia from last year, her CDO shrunk over the relatively cooler waters but she continued to intensify and reached Cat4 with the TS windfield only 50nm from the center. Cat 4 might be a bit too much here but she might go major again.

[skyline385]

Raw T upto 5.6 now, adjusted at 5.2. Eye continuing to clear up.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Not sure how on earth you can willingly factor in that terrible SAB Dvorak fix of 4.0 - clearly at least Cat 2 now, if not knocking on the door of Major status. Really impressive for this system as it approaches those cooler SSTs and that more stable air mass.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure why the NHC didn’t toss SAB here…

[Stormybajan]

Lmao, not be to critical but it will take a LOT to convince me that Bonnie is not at the LEAST 100-105 mph. 90 mph..come on

[cycloneye]

On post season analysis, definitly, they will have some fixing to do.

[aspen]

A pretty bad call this advisory. Bonnie is clearly intensifying again and might be on the cusp of regaining major hurricane status. Hopefully it holds on long enough so the NHC can operationally upgrade it to 90-100 kt at 11.

[weeniepatrol]

Well said, guys; this is probably currently a lot stronger than 80 kt. If that SAB fix was a joke, then I'm not laughing.

[skyline385]

Unfortunately she might not hold peak intensity to 11pm, look at that dry air getting sucked in.

[cheezyWXguy]

Unfortunately she might not hold peak intensity to 11pm, look at that dry air getting sucked in.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220707/aba96aeef18876986f3460065a3d01ae.jpg

Could explain the warming cloud tops. Hopefully that semi-annular structure Bonnie is taking on can help sustain til then

[aspen]

Well said, guys; this is probably currently a lot stronger than 80 kt. If that SAB fix was a joke, then I'm not laughing.

It’s annoying how many times they provide such garbage Dvorak fixes. Two in a row for Bonnie that kept it at 80kt (seriously how do you get T#4.0 out of this?), and I’m pretty sure at least one for another EPac storm this year. Plus all the times in previous years. I could’ve sworn there was a high-end Cat 4 last year that they assessed as like a T#5.5-6.0 or some low-end major number.

[Yellow Evan]

[skyline385]

And the eye closed up on IR

[Yellow Evan]

Fading again. Low SSTs are keeping Bonnie shallow and vulnerable to dry air instrusions.

[Visioen]

Darkness is invading her soul, eating away from the inside.


Too much?