EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

Wow, went from an AOI to an invest in less than 24 hours.

This might be another early, strong MDR Bonnie. Or an Elsa repeat. I’m skeptical that it’ll go nuts.

Edit: just saw that SHIPS output

The name Bonnie has never been used for early-season MDR hurricanes. Do you mean Bertha (1996 and 2008)?

[Nimbus]

The cone isn't showing much latitude gain and SHIPS is not weakening it in the usual mid Atlantic dry spot.

[aspen]

Wow, went from an AOI to an invest in less than 24 hours.

This might be another early, strong MDR Bonnie. Or an Elsa repeat. I’m skeptical that it’ll go nuts.

Edit: just saw that SHIPS output

The name Bonnie has never been used for early-season MDR hurricanes. Do you mean Bertha (1996 and 2008)?

Yeah, I think I got them confused with Bonnie ‘98. I thought that was a July storm too.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

[cycloneye]

As you said Adrian since yesterday, is a keeper wave.

[SoupBone]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

Hurricane Two?

[CrazyC83]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

Hurricane Two?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/1933_Atlantic_hurricane_2_track.png

That's the only hurricane to have formed in that region in June. Bret might have made it if it didn't crash into South America.

[ConvergenceZone]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

What happened in 1993? Just curious

[CrazyC83]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

What happened in 1993? Just curious

1933, that hurricane that hit Trinidad that formed in the deep tropics in late June.

[captainbarbossa19]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

Second closet analog would probably be Dennis (2005).

Edit: one big difference is that the ridge will probably be much stronger. Might be more like Emily (2005).

[Zonacane]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

Second closet analog would probably be Dennis (2005).

Or Emily

EDIT: just saw your edit. We’re in trouble this season

[Category5Kaiju]

[SoupBone]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

Second closet analog would probably be Dennis (2005).

Edit: one big difference is that the ridge will probably be much stronger. Might be more like Emily (2005).

It's what I keep thinking. Climo keeps bringing me back to thinking that the ridge should be potent enough, but will it be? It's been hotter than the fires of hell here in Texas because of the death ridge, but will it hold another two weeks?

[galaxy401]

Seeing a MDR invest with a possibility of development while tracking at low latitude is not something one would expect while it's still June. Here in Arizona, we're already getting monsoon storms when it typically doesn't start until July. Wonder if that's an omen for the next couple months...

[weeniepatrol]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

What happened in 1993? Just curious

1933 the only season with higher ace than 2005 kicked off with an mdr forming cat 2 Caribbean cruiser around late June

[Kohlecane]

1933 the only season with higher ace than 2005 kicked off with an mdr forming cat 2 Caribbean cruiser around late June

lovely fact , been so busy at the hospital and finally some time off to catch up to this Invest..

[skyline385]

1933 all over again? There's only one analog.

As someone in Jupiter, no please. Don't need a repeat of the Treasure Coast hurricane.

[Zonacane]

Seeing a MDR invest with a possibility of development while tracking at low latitude is not something one would expect while it's still June. Here in Arizona, we're already getting monsoon storms when it typically doesn't start until July. Wonder if that's an omen for the next couple months...

Not sure how or why we are getting it, but the monsoon has been very nice

[weeniepatrol]