WPAC: CHABA - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: CHABA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:50 am

Possible Chaba is here (again)
97W.INVEST

97W.INVEST.15kts.956mb.13.7N.127.9E

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:16 am, edited 7 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:57 am

A named storm is overdue but the question is whether the next Chaba would live up like its predecessors or destroy its high intensity record streak
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:59 am

Latest Euro is already tracking it.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 4:01 am

I think the GFS has a STY into SE China.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:I think the GFS has a STY into SE China.

Hard to take that intensity from GFS seriously especially over that area in June-July. But we are overdue maybe it can do a miracle being a deserving Chaba or maybe not...
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:01 am

Now low
ABPW10 PGTW 261400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/261400Z-270600ZJUN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8N
125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD EASTERLY WAVE WITH
WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHING LUZON. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE, THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AS AN OPEN WAVE, 850MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ENHANCED VORTICITY SIGNATURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LUZON AND AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME
DEGRADATION IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION, BUT ONCE IT EMERGES INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, 97W IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-
72 HOURS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, 30-31C SSTS, AND GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, AND ALL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES OVER LUZON AND ENTERS INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:39 pm

Image

GFS continues to have a STY. Not sure to trust it as its been pretty bad in the WPAC so far.

EPAC has a minimal hurricane landfall into SE China.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:01 pm

Euro ensemble and GFS also show possible development on the east side of the Philippines which might affect 97W's development.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:27 pm

Latest 00Z GFS is a more realistic scenario than an overhyping 97W.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:16 pm

HWRF first run
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#11 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:30 pm

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25 kts (or higher) tropical depression forecast from Japan Meteorological Agency.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:08 am

Up to medium
ABPW10 PGTW 281330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281330Z-290600ZJUN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.7N 117.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY
265 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE ASSESSED POSITION,
OBSCURING IT FROM CLEAR VIEW AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE
OR SCATTEROMETER DATA MAKES EXACT POSITIONING DIFFICULT, BUT A
TIMELY 281200Z SHIP OBSERVATION REPORTED 20KT WINDS AND 1000 MB
PRESSURE JUST 45NM NORTHWEST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. THE
SAME SHIP, TRAVELING SOUTH TO NORTH, REPORTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT
280900Z AS IT PASSED WITHIN 35NM OF THE CENTER, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY;
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT AIMLESSLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
BEFORE MODELS SUGGEST IT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NAVGEM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 97W WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP, THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SUGGEST A SLOW PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION,
LIKELY REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:28 am

WWJP27 RJTD 281200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 15N 117E WNW SLOWLY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#14 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:09 pm

PAGASA forecast

WTPH23 RPMM 281800
TTT WARNING 02
TD TIME 1800 UTC
00 15.3N 116.3E 1000HPA 25KT
P06HR W Slowly
P+12 15.8N 116.0E
P+24 16.9N 115.8E
P+36 17.8N 115.3E
P+48 18.2N 114.5E
P+60 18.3N 113.5E
P+72 18.4N 112.8E
P+96 19.7N 111.4E
P+120 21.0N 111.1E

PAGASA=

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#15 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:32 pm

Hayabusa, forgive me if I am mistaken, I remember in an earlier post, you made mention of another system that the Euro model was indicating possible development east of the Philippines, that may have an effect on 97W?....are you still seeing this on the model?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:19 pm

underthwx wrote:Hayabusa, forgive me if I am mistaken, I remember in an earlier post, you made mention of another system that the Euro model was indicating possible development east of the Philippines, that may have an effect on 97W?....are you still seeing this on the model?

That's 98W, and directly affecting each other doesn't seem to be in the latest runs anymore. But I guess with the formation of 98W it killed the chances of 97W reaching a higher intensity, they are competing with energy to feed.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#17 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:28 pm

TC warning
WTPQ50 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 14.8N 116.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 17.6N 115.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 010000UTC 19.0N 113.8E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 020000UTC 19.9N 111.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 030000UTC 21.6N 110.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 040000UTC 22.4N 109.6E 390NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#18 Postby Ed_2001 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:41 pm

TCFA
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 116.9E TO 17.7N 114.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 116.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 116.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY
460 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC)BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION.
282049 SSMIS 91GHZ SHOWS A BROAD, OPEN, SYMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH
A MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SIGNATURE. THE MOST RECENT JTWC UPPER
LEVEL STREAM LINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE NORTHEAST OF
INVEST 97W THAT IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT)
VWS, MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
999MB. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHEAST CHINA, WITH INTENSIFICATION GRADUALLY UP TO
LANDFALL.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#19 Postby NotoSans » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:28 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#20 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:30 am



JTWC will most likely upgrade to TD soon I would imagine,
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