ARB: INVEST 94A

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Subtrop
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ARB: INVEST 94A

#1 Postby Subtrop » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:48 pm

94A INVEST 220627 0000 20.5N 66.5E IO 15 1010
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doomhaMwx
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Re: ARB: INVEST 94A

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:50 am

94A INVEST 220627 1200 21.4N 66.1E IO 30 997
94A INVEST 220627 0600 20.8N 66.9E IO 30 997
94A INVEST 220627 0000 20.4N 67.9E IO 30 997
94A INVEST 220626 1800 20.2N 68.9E IO 30 995
94A INVEST 220626 1200 20.1N 70.0E IO 25 1000

ABIO10 PGTW 270630

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.4N
67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT AN UNSEASONAL NORTH
ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
GUJARAT PENINSULA. MSI INDICATES A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ASSESSED CENTER
EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 260323Z SHOWS A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED LLCC
SOUTHWEST OF THE GUJARAT PENINSULA, WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST SECTOR. HIGHER WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE
PRESENT FURTHER WEST IN THE GRADIENT FLOW BUT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. 94A HAS BLOSSOMED AFTER TRACKING AWAY FROM UNDER THE
IMMENSE (25 TO 40 KNOT) VWS INDUCED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ)
INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND THIS TRANSFORMATION HAS THE
SYSTEM IN A BUBBLE OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS WITH NICE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN WARM, PROVIDING AMPLE ENERGY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE AT
PRESENT, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING
VWS, AND IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR, AND ALL SUPPORT THE FACT THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY ALREADY PEAKED AND MAY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS OMAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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Grifforzer
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Re: ARB: INVEST 94A

#3 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:40 pm

Image

94A did look good around its peak.
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